As the confrontation between China and the United States continues, there are also rumors of predictions of the outbreak of war between China and the United States. A few days ago, the US media "National Interest" magazine announced that by 2030, the balance of power between China and the United States will undergo a fundamental change, and the two countries are likely to enter the "Thucydides" trap. The so-called "Thucydides" trap refers to the rapid rise of a country's comprehensive national strength, which is bound to challenge the existing great power order.
Another great power, feeling enormous pressure from the newly rising powers, will respond with certain measures. As a result, war between the two great powers, old and new, seems inevitable. The above theory was put forward by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, and has been verified many times in the course of human history, and has even become an "iron law" of international relations.
In fact, many years ago, foreign politicians proposed that when the comprehensive strength of China and the United States is equal, war may break out between the two sides. In October 2013, Shigeru Ishiba, then secretary general of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, said in a speech in Niigata city that with the rapid rise of China and the relative decline in the power of the United States, the existing pattern between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region will be broken, and the risk of war between the two sides will become higher and higher.
The above views have also been recognized by the Us media and officials. Whether it is the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy" under the Obama administration, the "Indo-Pacific strategy" proposed by Trump, and now Biden's foreign strategy, China has always regarded China as one of the most important competitors of the United States, and containing China has become the first priority of US diplomatic action.
The US media "National Interest" magazine believes that there are five major fuses that may trigger a war between China and the United States. First, Japan, because Japan is a close ally of the United States, in the context of Sino-US confrontation, Japan's strategy toward China is also synchronized with the United States, and many Japanese politicians accuse China of unilaterally changing the existing order in the East and South China Seas. In addition to the damage caused by the tense Sino-US relations, There are also many contradictions between China and Japan.
For example, Japan did not review or take responsibility for the heinous crimes committed on the battlefields of China during World War II, but instead visited the Yasukuni Shrine and hurt the feelings of the Chinese people. There is also the dispute between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands, which is still unresolved, and Japan has drawn third countries to intervene in it to block the normal patrol operations of the Chinese Coast Guard in the waters near the Diaoyu Islands.
The second fuse is South Korea, although the contradictions between China and South Korea are not as deep as those between China and Japan, but as an ally of the United States, South Korea's relations with China are not friendly. In recent years, Sino-Rok relations have continued to fluctuate, especially after the United States deployed the THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea, posing a great challenge to China's strategic security. If the United States is the main culprit, South Korea is undoubtedly an accomplice.
In fact, since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, the United States has been using the Taiwan Strait issue to contain China. After this round of deterioration in Sino-US relations, the White House has intensified its efforts and has repeatedly used the Taiwan Strait issue to confront China. Whether it is the previous arms sales to Taiwan or the recent passage of US Navy warships through the Taiwan Strait, the original tense Sino-US relations have been aggravated, and the Taiwan Strait issue is the most likely to trigger sino-US war.
The fourth biggest trigger is the Philippines, although after Duterte came to power, Sino-Philippine relations have been greatly improved, the Philippine side has repeatedly declared that it will not openly take sides in Sino-US confrontation, and it will be committed to developing friendly relations with China. However, from the perspective of actual actions, the Philippine side's foreign strategy has not changed substantially, and pro-US is still the main theme.
On August 2, local time, Duterte announced the resumption of the Philippines-U.S. "Visiting Force Agreement" and retained the tradition of joint military exercises between the two militaries. It is also with the support of the United States that the Philippines has repeatedly "done things" in the waters of the South China Sea, invaded islands and reefs in the South China Sea, illegally carried out fishing operations, and secretly exploited oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. According to the vision of the United States, many countries around the South China Sea, including the Philippines, will be built into a new trump card against China.
The last big fuse is China's neighbor India, if the first four fuses are still in the envision stage, India has become a realistic fuse. In June last year, a military conflict broke out between China and India over territorial disputes in the border area. Although the efforts of both sides were later pursued, tensions were eased.
But until now, the standoff between the two countries in the border areas has continued. India and the United States, which see China as mutual rivals, have reached an agreement on confronting China. India wants the United States to contain China at sea, thereby alleviating India's pressure on land, while the United States wants India to contain China on land and reduce China's power.
"National Interest" magazine said that China and the United States have sown "seeds of discord" in the above countries or regions, and the occurrence of war will be a high-probability event, and once the conflict breaks out, the battle will be fought in China, and the East China Sea and the South China Sea are the main war zones. As for who will win the final victory in the war between China and the United States, the national interest magazine said that the outcome is difficult to predict, and the direction of the war depends on the war preparations of each country, but China may win the final victory.