This month, after the Y2201 contract of soybean oil futures broke through the 10,000-point mark, the fluctuations in the oil and fat market became more and more intense, and the intraday shock of the oil futures price often exceeded 300 points, and the ups and downs of the market made it difficult for many investors to grasp the rhythm. And this week's continuous oil and fat has a wave of rapid decline, the 28th Y2201 contract intraday minimum touched 9610 points, breaking through the 20-day moving average support, compared with the highest 10406 points a week ago, a week or so, the 01 contract soybean oil high and low price difference has reached 796 points, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the packaging oil dealers are particularly difficult.
Taking soybean oil as an example combined with the reference of the spot market, as of noon on October 28, the average spot quotation of the first-class soybean oil of the main domestic coastal manufacturers was about 10445 yuan / ton, about 10350 yuan / ton in Dalian, about 10400 / ton in Tianjin, about 10450 yuan / ton in Rizhao, about 10440 yuan / ton in Guangzhou, about 10430 yuan / ton in Fangchenggang area, and about 550 yuan / ton in various places compared with a week ago. China Grain and Oil Information Network Xin Xianming here to talk about the recent impact on the fluctuations of the pulse oil market hot spots and future market concerns.
Crude oil prices plunged suddenly
On October 27, Iran and the European Union agreed to restart negotiations on the 2015 nuclear deal by the end of next month, indicating an improved outlook for Iran's return to the crude oil market. Analysts said that if the negotiations lead to the end of U.S. sanctions on Iran, Iran's crude oil exports increase, it will ease the concerns of tight supply and demand of crude oil. The recent high for crude oil prices has hit a multi-year high, mainly because of concerns about the tight supply of crude oil.
U.S. Department of Energy data on the 27th showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 4.3 million barrels in the week ended October 22, more than double the market forecast of 1.9 million barrels. Citi analysts said the significant increase in U.S. crude inventories was due to a significant increase in net crude oil imports, while refinery processing remained sluggish.
U.S. crude oil prices have fallen sharply as Iranian crude oil exports are likely to ease supply constraints and U.S. crude oil inventory data has increased significantly. In addition, US inflation has further escalated, and the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates more frequently, and the time for raising interest rates will be advanced, exacerbating market anxiety. The U.S. crude oil futures price of the New York Stock Exchange closed down 3% to $82.07 / barrel on the 27th, and the lowest $80.58 / barrel in the morning of the 28th, falling below the support of the 20-day moving average and touching a nearly two-week low. Lower crude oil prices are directly negative for edible oil commodities such as legumes at the biofuel level.
Palm oil speculation in the production area is bearish
On 27 October, the Malay government again mentioned that it was preparing to bring in 32,000 foreign workers to support the palm oil industry, as labour shortages threatened the output of Malaysia's largest foreign exchange-making sector. As a result, the market adjusted its expectations for future horse palm production, which was bearish for futures prices.
On October 28, the Indonesian government was considering banning crude palm oil (CPO) exports to boost the country's downstream palm oil industry, but experts said economic restrictions made the downstream industry a distant dream. Earlier, on Oct. 13, Indonesia's president said he planned to ban crude palm oil exports "at some point" in order to process the commodity into higher-value derivatives such as cosmetics, food and biodiesel for domestic use and export. However, experts, business leaders and regulators have said that high biodiesel prices, relatively low domestic demand for crude palm oil and international biodiesel trade barriers have challenged Indonesia to develop a complete downstream palm oil industry. The Indonesian market view is that if the export of wool palm is stopped, its domestic production will not be able to absorb all of its production, and it will also involve the development of related industries that will force the implementation of the raw firewood policy, and the president's plan will be difficult to implement for the time being. This news has dampened the market's previous expectations of competitive horse palm exports, suppressed horse palm futures prices, and dragged down the inner plate oil.
In summary, this week's domestic pulse oil market fell unexpectedly, mainly dragged down by the decline in foreign oils and fats, crude oil due to the possibility of Iran to resume exports and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and suddenly plummeted, Indonesia plans to stop the rough palm export plan is more difficult to implement, inhibit the competitive horse palm export demand expectations, peripheral oil futures put pressure on the inner plate oil futures, and hit spot prices. Recently, the US soybean oil market has diverged, the theme speculation is not much, and the performance of even the us soybean oil following the trend of US bean futures has weakened.
From the disk point of view, the Y2201 contract above the gap at 10120 points, the gap below at 9398 points, is currently between the 10/20 day moving average, the daily MACD dead fork and KDJ oversold, technically there is no clear trend, the short-term line will still maintain a wide range shock pattern, temporarily look at the 9450-10100 point box. Due to the lack of bright spots in the domestic soybean oil fundamentals at this stage, and can not guide the market, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Shandong and other localities and signs of epidemic point outbreaks, affecting the start-up, purchase and sale of surrounding oil mills and transportation, the author temporarily maintains a cautious thinking, in the low range is suitable for supplementing just need, at the beginning of the month, the author also gave this month's reference to 9400/9500/9600 batches is relatively appropriate. Also due to the recent slowdown in the spot market, the volatility is fierce, the price above 9900 points is high, and the dealers with a small volume and a long inventory cycle in the middle and lower reaches need to participate cautiously. At this stage, we need to pay special attention to the news of domestic policies, the high price of coal has been suppressed, and the oil and fat have also risen to a high level in the past 10 years, waiting to see whether there will be regulatory policies in the market in the later period, as well as policy changes in response to the epidemic and power curtailment in various places, and pay attention to the high-frequency data of Ma Palm, the export and loading progress of new beans in the United States.
The author's ideas do not constitute any investment advice, and readers should refer to them as appropriate in light of their own and surrounding market conditions.
(China Cereals and Oils Information Network Xin Xianming)
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