The prospect of "rebuilding a better future" is unclear, and Biden faces a test of time

On October 28, U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled the framework of the $1.75 trillion Rebuilding a Better Future Act, after "listening to the views of all parties and consulting with congressional leaders and many members of congress," hoping to guide the next legislation. Biden called on both houses to pass the "historic bill" as soon as possible to help the United States meet the challenge of climate change, create millions of jobs for the American people, and consolidate the foundation of the American economy and revitalize the middle class.

The bill is undoubtedly another landmark of the Biden administration after the launch of the trillion-dollar infrastructure plan, and it is also one of the core of its campaign and governance. Biden personally visited Capitol Hill on Thursday to lobby the core members of the Democratic Party, even postponing his trip to Europe for the G20 summit. Although Biden is confident that the bill will pass through Congress, with some progressive Democrats still resisting the infrastructure bill and refusing to vote on any bill alone, Biden still needs to spend a lot of effort to lock in the votes of Democratic swinging members. After all, in the face of the harsh reality that the vast majority of Republican lawmakers are still opposed to the president's bill, Biden can only secure and rely on a slim majority of democrats in the House of Representatives of about ten votes, and convince two stubborn moderate Democratic senators— Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, that his ambitious "Rebuild America" plan will be able to get his boots on the ground.

Whether it is the tradition of checks and balances of power between different government departments under the US Constitution, or the reality that it is difficult for the two parties to reach a compromise in the context of political polarization, Biden's legislative road to rebuilding a better America is bound to be a thrilling step, and the opposition vote of every member of congress may become a veto point to end his "great vision". However, beyond the constraints of the Republican Party and the divisions within the Democratic Party, whether Biden can realize his dream of "rebuilding America" in his first term — at least in advancing the domestic agenda, and whether he can effectively play his presidential leadership for a limited time is probably the biggest challenge he faces.

A number of domestic polls show that Biden's current presidential approval rating has fallen sharply. According to Gallup's latest poll, Biden's approval rating fell from 56 percent in the first quarter to 44.7 percent in the third quarter, and his first nine months of office fell as much as 11.3 percent, surpassing any president since World War II. According to the statistics of TheiveThirtyEight, a well-known american polling agency, Biden's current support rate remains at about 43.7%, while the opposition rate is as high as 51.1%. Biden, after the end of the 100-day "honeymoon period" of the president, is torn between the recurrence of the new crown epidemic and the chaos of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, and on the other hand, he needs to find a balance between the internal and external agendas of reviving the US economy and reshaping the US global leadership.

Yet the clock of American politics itself does not change because of the president's personal schedule. For Biden, if he cannot urge Congress to vote on the infrastructure bill and the "reconstruction bill" framework as soon as possible - the Democratic leader of the House of Representatives has been forced to postpone the voting time of the infrastructure bill on the 28th, which means that it is difficult for him to win a "historic victory" in the domestic policy agenda in the second hundred days. Under the cyclical rotation of American politics, Biden will soon face the so-called "decreasing popularity" and "decreasing effectiveness" of the two major governance problems. As the 2022 midterm election test and the 2024 presidential election test approach, the aging and energy of Biden may not even have time for effective presidential leadership, and be forced to exhaust himself in the internal friction of the party.

Careful observers have seen that whether it is the infrastructure case or this framework bill, the scale of funding bidden has won is not small compared with what he originally hoped. Whether or not Biden 2024 is intentional and powerful, his presidency is likely to end with so-called "transactional leadership" — one that cannot bring about real positive change for the United States, but that can only push the "old empire" forward in the form of seeking "incremental changes."

(The author is a lecturer at the School of International Relations, Sichuan University of Foreign Chinese)

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