Automation is a "gentle" terminator
<h1 class= "pgc-h-center-line" > Typical process of artificial intelligence autonomous driving: first make the life of truck drivers more comfortable, and make up for the shortage of drivers in the medium term, and finally eliminate this position. </h1>
Obama
Barack Obama left a parting message for his successor. A day before Donald Trump predicted he would become "the greatest job maker God has ever created," the outgoing U.S. president appeared like a ghost at a banquet, warning that "the relentless pace of automation will eliminate many jobs."
Trump
Both of these claims may at least prove correct. Automation has been a constant for decades, and recent advances in robotics and artificial intelligence have largely ensured that their adoption will accelerate. But the key is timing. For companies and their investors (and for politicians as well), the key question is not "if," but "when." For society as a whole, the pace of automation will determine how difficult it is to cope with worker unemployment and whether the political backlash will intensify. The pace of automation is equally important for companies and their investors trying to bring the latest robots and smart devices into the real world.
Almost no one is in the same position as Google's parent company Alphabet, which has a long-term view of betting on areas like self-driving cars, but now even Alphabet is beginning to be impatient about when such a "moonshot" project will pay off. There are many variables that affect the speed of popularity. In a new report on automation, half of all the work people do can be automated through proven technologies. But this estimate does not say how long the entire process will take.
Given the uncertainties of all kinds, from regulation to the ability of companies to change processes, consultants estimate that this could take between 20 and 60 years. Try to build an investment model based on that degree of variability. Take self-driving cars and trucks, for example. A lot of technology has been validated, and the potential market (for automakers and technology suppliers and Google's parent company Alphabet, which has a long-term view of betting on areas such as self-driving cars,
Self-driving cars
It's huge. But is it 5, 10 or 30 years to make it a sizable market?
Automakers have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in driverless car platforms. In February 2021, companies such as Audi called automation a kind of progress. The company said 60 percent of new car buyers have chosen to pay $3,000 to $6,000 to add auto-acceleration and braking capabilities. These consumers can reasonably be expected to pay higher prices for higher levels of safety and convenience. The shift from cars automatically staying in their own lanes to driving without the steering wheel in hand could be a smooth, gradual automation that won't immediately wipe out jobs, but may first make truck drivers more comfortable, and then make up for the shortage of drivers in the medium term, and eventually eliminate those jobs. This prospect paints a beautiful vision for companies that are leading the ai and robotics trend. But as today's turbulent political climate demonstrates, it would be foolish to expect such a smooth transition.