In recent days, corn ushered in a continuous rise, and the rise is strong, every day there are more than a dozen, more than twenty enterprises to rise, and even a few enterprises (Jilin Cargill Biochemical) appeared a day soaring 200 yuan of bright action, inevitably will make people think, is the corn market is coming? Can it still rise to 1 yuan 5 or 6 cents? And so on.
Before discussing these issues, let's take a look at the corn market with you:
First, the corn market review: statistics show that the corn market from the beginning of 2020 around 0.98 yuan began to rise, after a year of bull market, the national average price of corn on February 17, 2021 to create a high point of the current round of rise of 3086 yuan / ton, that is, 1.543 yuan / jin, and then the shock fell back, after more than 1 month of weak shock, fell to a recent low of 1.425 yuan / jin on April 8.
Under the resonance of a series of positive factors such as the sharp rise in domestic and foreign corn futures prices, the suspension of wheat auctions in May, the weakening of traders' enthusiasm for shipment, and the high cost of building warehouses by some traders, corn spot prices have risen significantly in recent days.
The corn market on May 13 shows:
A total of 27 companies in the market raised their purchase prices, including as many as 19 in Shandong, 5 in Hebei, and 1 each in Henan, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces.
From the perspective of increase, 19 enterprises in Shandong generally rose by 10-20 yuan per ton of corn, and at present, 3 enterprises have broken through the 3,000 yuan mark again, namely: Zouping Ronghai 3,000 yuan / ton, the same as yesterday; Zaozhuang Tengzhou Hengren rose 20 yuan, 3010 yuan / ton; Zaozhuang Runlong bulk biological increased by 20 yuan, the execution price of 3030 yuan / ton.
The 5 rising enterprises in Hebei Province: Derui Starch rose by 1 point, 1.445 yuan / jin; Ningjin Yufeng rose 1.5 points, 1.45 yuan / jin; Dacaozhuang jinyu rose 1 point, 1.45 yuan / jin; Guangyu starch rose 1 point, 1.444 yuan / jin; Funing Lihua rose 1 point, 1.42 yuan / jin.
The other 3 rising enterprises: Henan Luzhou Company rose 0.5 points, the execution price of 1.475 yuan / jin; Heilongjiang Fujin Xiangyu rose 1 point, 1.34 yuan / jin; Jilin COFCO Yushu rose 1 point, 1.37 yuan / jin.
Second, the future market outlook:
Looking at all aspects of the current market situation, the corn market has appeared "inflection point", so will there be a wave of big rise?
Some insiders have analyzed that although the current corn trend is strong, but because there is still a considerable part of the corn stock stranded in the hands of traders and farmers, when the price of corn continues to rise, this part of the higher cost of the circulation link of corn will follow the shipment, the more it rises out, so in this case, the recent corn may appear a small wave of rising market, and so when the corn stuck in the circulation link is exhausted, about in July and August, the corn has a greater possibility of a wave of larger levels of rise.
Third, the logic of the expected increase in corn prices in July and August:
First, in July and August, the supply of corn market entered a period of time when "green and yellow did not connect", farmers had no grain in their hands, the inventory of intermediate grain merchants was almost clear, the new corn grain had not yet been listed, and the supply of corn would be relatively tight. At the same time, at present, there are still some national reserve tasks that have not been completed, and a certain amount of corn is needed to replenish the reservoir.
Second, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on pig production capacity, in June and July, the pig inventory will return to the normal annual level, and there will be an increase in the consumption of corn.
Third, as the stock of corn in the market is getting smaller and smaller, most of the remaining corn is high-quality grain, and the mentality of the main body of grain holding will be relatively stable, and it will not buy it at all if it is not given to the price, and the grain industry will have to raise the price if it wants to collect grain.
Comprehensive analysis, short-term corn may be only a small level of rebound market, the upside space does not dare to expect too high, it is estimated that after June corn is expected to have a wave of larger level of the market, when the overall corn price into the 1.5 yuan era, or even higher Probability is larger. What do you think of the corn market? Will it be a big rise in the near future?
(Text/Sannong Guangxun)