In the embers of war, Blinken's first visit to the Middle East, scholar: the United States has no intention and is unable to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict

The Paper's reporter Yu Xiaoxuan

"We think of a ceasefire not as an end, but as a beginning — the beginning of building some kind of foundation." U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said this on May 26 after meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II in Amman, Jordan, thus ending his two-day trip to the Middle East. Prior to this, Blinken had already met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Tel Aviv and Ramallah respectively.

The trip was Blinken's first visit to the Middle East as the biden administration's highest-ranking diplomat. Just a few days ago, Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) just declared a ceasefire, and the 11-day war killed more than 250 people, most of them Palestinians. Days of Israeli bombardment have also wreaked havoc on the impoverished and isolated Gaza Strip under Hamas rule.

"After the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire, Blinken's current trip to the Middle East is mainly a gesture to try to maintain a balance under the attack of international and domestic public opinion, not only following the past practice of supporting the Israeli government, but also saying that he will provide humanitarian assistance to Palestine refugees." Wu Xuanxuan, assistant professor of political science and international relations at Ou Daoming University, told the www.thepaper.cn.

During the visit, Blinken made it clear that the United States currently has no plans to let the parties engage in immediate peace negotiations, and has hardly mentioned the root causes of the decades-long conflict between Palestine and Israel, but he expressed the hope of creating a "better environment" for peace. However, this kind of appeasement without a solution will not work in the face of the Palestinian-Israeli issue, which has sparked decades of turmoil in the Middle East.

"Managing Conflicts, Not Resolving Them"

"We are working with all parties and partners to help reach a ceasefire, but we are also focused on the way forward – including steps we can take to build a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike." Blinken wrote on Twitter before leaving for the Middle East on the 24th.

However, in the context of the Biden administration's already lowering the us foreign policy priorities in the Middle East, Blinken's trip is more like "catching ducks on the shelves." During the latest round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there have been growing voices in the United States demanding that the Biden administration hold Israel accountable for human rights abuses against Palestinians. At the same time, as the United States exported precision-guided weapons to Israel before the conflict, some Democrats expressed deep concern that they were the ones responsible for the deaths and injuries of more than two thousand Palestinian civilians.

In an interview with Israel's Channel 12 on May 25, Blinken said again that the United States believes the two-state solution is the only way to truly ensure that Israel "can become a Jewish democracy" in the future, while guaranteeing the right of Palestinians to statehood. Although Blinken's rhetoric is no different from Biden's consistent statement since the election campaign, this "scene" is obviously a little pale at a time when Israel and Hamas have just announced a ceasefire, and the embers of the Gaza Strip are still alive and in ruins.

"We know that as illegal settlements continue to be built, Israel has largely rejected the two-state solution, and if we continue to talk about the two-state solution, we will do nothing, just cliché." Imad Halb, director of research and analysis at the Arab Center in Washington, said in an interview with Al Jazeera. Wu Xuanxuan also pointed out to the surging news, "Blinken's visit has no intention and is unable to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, in fact, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not currently the focus of the Biden administration's diplomacy." ”

According to Al Jazeera, the main purpose of Blinken's trip to the Middle East was to manage the conflict, not to resolve it, suggesting that the Biden administration is still following a U.S. foreign policy playbook that has been playing out for decades. Critics, however, argue that the policy has largely declared bankruptcy.

"Biden is well versed in international affairs, must be very familiar with the historical evolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the relevant policies of successive US administrations, and coupled with domestic political factors, he will not make fundamental adjustments during his term of office, and will still be biased in favor of Israel in essence." Wu Xuanxuan said, "The main difference from the Trump administration is that Biden will not have too out of the ordinary new moves." ”

Notably, after talks with Abbas, Blinken made a high-profile announcement that he would "rebuild U.S.-Palestinian relations" — the first priority being to reopen the U.S. Consulate General in Jerusalem. The Trump administration recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital in 2017 and moved its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018. In 2019, Trump officially closed the Consulate General in Jerusalem and merged it into the U.S. Embassy in Israel, while slashing aid to the Palestinian National Authority.

Since there is no solution, Biden's realistic strategy on the Palestinian-Israeli issue can only be to keep "throwing money". Blinken announced an additional assistance of about US$38.5 million (about 245 million yuan) to the Palestinians, including US$5.5 million in emergency assistance to the Gaza Strip. After Trump cut almost all aid to the Palestinians, the Biden administration took a turn for the worse, pledging about $360 million in aid to him, the Associated Press reported.

"Biden could put in some money, promise to rebuild, persuade Israel not to do stupid things, maybe slow down the pace of building settlements, or at least make it less visible." Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, said, "All he can do is keep doing that, give the Palestinians some money, and buy them off for another four years." ”

Biden's Middle East policy has done little

After concluding his meeting with the Palestinian and Israeli leaders, Blinken also visited Egypt and Jordan one after another. Both countries have historically played an important role in mediating the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and this time Gaza has also implemented a ceasefire under the mediation of Egypt.

During his meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Blinken once again praised and thanked Egypt for its "successful diplomacy" and its coordination with the United States. However, during his first visit to the Middle East as secretary of state, Blinken also had to carefully manage sensitive relations with some regional leaders, and Sisi was one of them, and Blinken did not give up other responsibilities for Sisi because of his good offices. According to the New York Times, Blinken had a "lengthy exchange" with Sisi about "human rights abuses" in Egypt during his tenure.

The Sisi office did not mention the discussion of "human rights violations" in the statement issued after the meeting between the two sides, but only expressed its hope to strengthen bilateral coordination and consultation with the United States to maintain the ceasefire.

The New York Times article pointed out that although Blinken's actions in Egypt are the same as the United States' previous release of the full investigation report on the murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi, representing the Biden administration's posture of resuming "value diplomacy" in the Middle East, at the same time, the actual actions of the Biden administration are to "leave the mess" and achieve further strategic contraction in the Middle East. This hypocritical policy has also proved to be of no benefit to peace in the Middle East, as evidenced by this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

"In the early days of his term of office, Biden focused his work on the domestic fight against the epidemic, and the diplomacy was mainly to repair alliances, except for announcing the timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, there was basically no great achievement in Middle East policy." Wu Xuanxuan believes that in the foreseeable future, the core concern of the United States in the Middle East should be the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, while on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, it is mainly to control the crisis and prevent the escalation of the conflict.

Blinken's visit coincides with the fifth round of indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran on resuming compliance with the JCPOA. Although neither Blinken nor the U.S. State Department has emphasized the Iranian issue on the agenda, Israeli media reported that israel plans to raise the issue in a meeting with Blinken.

"The first priority for each of you is to prevent Iran from arming itself with nuclear weapons, which is the highest priority." Netanyahu said at a ceremony to honor outstanding agents of the Intelligence Agency Mossad on the same day as Blinken's departure. According to Israel's Jerusalem Post, Netanyahu also stressed that in order to protect itself from The Iranian nuclear threat, Israel may have to act without the United States.

The fifth round of negotiations on the resumption of implementation of the JCPOA agreement was held on May 25. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Araghi said in an interview with Iranian media on the same day that an agreement to resume compliance may be reached during this round of negotiations, but it is not yet certain, because it depends on the negotiation of key issues. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also said on May 26 that "everything is now ready to restart the nuclear deal," but he also called on the United States to take the first step toward lifting sanctions.

This positive statement by Iran is a negative signal to Israel. "Whether the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement or not, we will do everything we can to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons." Netanyahu said, "Because it's about our existence." ”

Editor-in-charge: Hu Zhenqing

Proofreader: Liu Wei