China Fund News Taylor
On October 26, the State Council issued the "Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030", proposing to promote the low-carbon transformation of transportation equipment and actively expand the application of new energy and clean energy such as electricity, hydrogen energy, natural gas, and advanced bio-liquid fuels in the field of transportation.
The fund jun has sorted out the 15 main points of this document for everyone's investment reference.
1. Main objectives
By 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%, energy consumption per unit of GDP will be 13.5% lower than in 2020, and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be 18% lower than in 2020, laying a solid foundation for achieving carbon peaking。
By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%, and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be more than 65% lower than in 2005, and the carbon peak target by 2030 will be successfully achieved。
2. Promote coal consumption substitution and transformation and upgrading
Accelerate the pace of coal reduction, strictly and reasonably control the growth of coal consumption during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and gradually reduce during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period。
Promote coal reduction and coal restriction in key coal-using industries。 Vigorously promote the clean utilization of coal, reasonably demarcate areas where scattered burning is prohibited, take multiple measures at the same time, actively and orderly promote the substitution of loose coal, and gradually reduce until the prohibition of scattered coal burning。
3. Vigorously develop new energy
Comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and solar power generation, adhere to the combination of centralization and distribution, and accelerate the construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases。 Accelerate the innovation and upgrading of the intelligent photovoltaic industry and the application of characteristics, innovate the "photovoltaic +" model, and promote the diversified layout of photovoltaic power generation。
By 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts。
4. Develop hydropower according to local conditions。
Promote the construction of hydropower projects in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, the upper reaches of the Lancang River, the middle reaches of the Yalong River, the upper reaches of the Yellow River, etc., which have been included in the planning and meet the requirements of ecological protection, promote the development of hydropower in the lower reaches of the Brahmaputra River, and promote the green development of small hydropower。 Promote the synergy and complementarity of hydropower, wind power and solar power generation in the southwest region。
5. Actively develop nuclear power in a safe and orderly manner。
Strengthen the standardization and autonomy of nuclear power, accelerate the research of key technologies and equipment, and cultivate high-end nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry clusters。 Implement the strictest safety standards and the strictest supervision, and continuously improve the ability to supervise nuclear safety.
6. Rationally regulate oil and gas consumption。
Keep oil consumption in a reasonable range, gradually adjust the scale of gasoline consumption, vigorously promote the replacement of traditional fuels such as advanced bio-liquid fuels and sustainable aviation fuels, and improve the energy efficiency of terminal fuel products. Accelerate the large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas, coal-bed methane, and tight oil (gas). Rationally guide the use of gas for industrial gas and chemical raw materials. Support vehicles and vessels to use LNG as fuel.
7. Accelerate the construction of a new power system。
Actively develop "new energy + energy storage", source network load storage integration and multi-energy complementarity, and support the rational allocation of distributed new energy storage systems。
By 2025, the installed capacity of the new energy storage will reach more than 30 million kilowatts. By 2030, the installed capacity of pumped storage power stations will reach about 120 million kilowatts, and the provincial power grid will basically have a peak load response capacity of more than 5%.
8. Promote the carbon peak of the steel industry.
Promote the structural optimization of the steel industry and the replacement of clean energy, vigorously promote the demonstration of non-blast furnace ironmaking technology, improve the level of recycling of scrap steel resources, and implement the all-scrap electric furnace process. Promote advanced and applicable technologies, dig deep into the potential of energy conservation and carbon reduction, encourage tempering co-production, explore pilot demonstrations such as hydrogen metallurgy and the integration of carbon dioxide capture and utilization, and promote the development of low-grade waste heat heating。
9. Promote the carbon peak of the non-ferrous metal industry.
Promote the substitution of clean energy, and increase the proportion of hydropower, wind power, solar power and other applications。 Accelerate the development of the recycled non-ferrous metal industry, improve the recycling, sorting and processing network of waste non-ferrous metal resources, and increase the output of recycled non-ferrous metals.
10. Promote the carbon peak of the building materials industry.
Use renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy according to local conditions, and gradually increase the proportion of electricity and natural gas applications。 Encourage building materials enterprises to use fly ash, industrial waste residue, tailings slag, etc. as raw materials or cement mixtures. Accelerate the certification and application promotion of green building materials products, and strengthen the research and development and application of low-carbon building materials such as new cementitious materials, low-carbon concrete, and wood and bamboo building materials.
11. Promote the carbon peak of the petrochemical industry.
Guide enterprises to change the way they use energy, and encourage the replacement of coal with electricity and natural gas。 Adjust the structure of raw materials, control the use of coal for new raw materials, expand the import sources of hydrogen-rich raw materials, and promote the lightweighting of petrochemical and chemical raw materials. By 2025, the primary processing capacity of domestic crude oil will be controlled within 1 billion tons, and the capacity utilization rate of major products will increase to more than 80%.
12. Promote the low-carbon transformation of transportation tools and equipment. Vigorously promote new energy vehicles
Actively expand the application of new energy and clean energy such as electric power, hydrogen energy, natural gas, and advanced bio-liquid fuels in the field of transportation.
Vigorously promote new energy vehicles, gradually reduce the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles in the production and sales of new vehicles and car ownership, and improve the level of electrification of the railway system. Improve the level of electrification and intelligence in airport operation, and develop new energy aircraft.
By 2030, the proportion of new new energy and clean energy-powered vehicles in that year will reach about 40%, the carbon emission intensity of the conversion turnover of operating vehicle units will be about 9.5% lower than that of 2020, and the comprehensive energy consumption of the national railway unit conversion turnover will be reduced by 10% compared with 2020. Oil consumption in land transportation aims to peak by 2030.
13. Accelerate the construction of green transportation infrastructure.
Orderly promote the construction of infrastructure such as charging piles, supporting power grids, filling (gas) stations, and hydrogen refueling stations, and improve the level of urban public transportation infrastructure. By 2030, vehicles and equipment in the civil transport airport will strive to fully realize electrification.
14. Avoid "one-size-fits-all" power rationing and production limitation or sports "carbon reduction"
Adhere to the national chess game, do not rush to run, scientifically formulate the carbon peak action plan in the region, put forward a realistic and feasible carbon peak timetable, road map, construction drawings, and avoid "one-size-fits-all" power curtailment and production limitation or sports-style "carbon reduction". After the carbon peaking action plan of each region is comprehensively balanced and approved by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality work leading group, it will be issued and implemented by the local government itself.
15. Support eligible green enterprises in listing financing, listing financing and refinancing.
Vigorously develop financial instruments such as green loans, green equity, green bonds, green insurance, and green funds, set up carbon emission reduction support tools, guide financial institutions to provide long-term and low-cost funds for green and low-carbon projects, and encourage development policy-oriented financial institutions to provide long-term and stable financing support for carbon peaking actions in accordance with the principle of market-oriented rule of law.
Expand the depth and breadth of the green bond market, and support eligible green enterprises to go public, raise and refinance. Study the establishment of a national low-carbon transformation fund to support the green transformation of traditional industries and resource-rich areas. Encourage social capital to set up green and low-carbon industry investment funds in a market-oriented manner.
Brokerage: energy storage, photovoltaic, wind power
It is the growth track with the best certainty
China Merchants Securities Research Report pointed out that the current proportion of fossil energy consumption in the power sector is still one of the main sources of carbon emissions, and new energy substitution is the fundamental to achieve carbon neutrality, and it is also the most core development theme in the next few decades.
China Merchants Securities said that energy storage, photovoltaics and wind power are the most deterministic growth tracks:
1) Photovoltaic: short-term game does not change the long-term high growth. The fluctuation of the industrial chain price has affected the installed rhythm of photovoltaics, but under the guidance of the highest dual carbon target, the certainty of growth of photovoltaics is beyond doubt. The promotion of the whole county (about 100GW in 676 counties) + large base projects (more than 100GW of wind and solar projects have been started in total) ensures that the demand is extremely high. In the context of the breakthrough of supply bottlenecks and the rapid follow-up of energy storage in the next 2-3 years, photovoltaic installed capacity has the possibility of exceeding expectations.
2) Wind power: large-scale acceleration of cost reduction to ensure the realization of the double carbon process。 Large bases, decentralized and new and old replacement further lay the foundation for the installation of wind power in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to contribute 200-230GW of installed capacity, considering offshore wind power and other projects, it is conservatively expected that the average annual installed capacity of wind power during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be 50-65GW, and it is expected that the new domestic wind power installed capacity will be 40GW in 2021, and 80-90GW in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of more than 20%.
3) Energy storage: The domestic market has also entered a period of substantial development. Energy storage is an inevitable choice for the power system to maintain safe and stable operation after achieving a high proportion of new energy access. At this stage, energy storage is mainly based on pumping and electrochemistry, especially with the progress of battery materials and processes, the improvement of cycle life, the significant optimization of the cost of energy storage projects, the adjustment of the superimposed peak-valley electricity price mechanism and the improvement of the power auxiliary service market, the economy will usher in a significant change, and the industry will enter substantial development.
Investment proposal: photovoltaic: integration: LONGi shares, JA Technology, Trina Solar; silicon materials: Tongwei shares, Daqo Energy, TBEA/Xinte Energy; inverters: Sunshine Power, Jinlang Technology, Goodway; adhesive film: Foster, Haiyou New Materials (Chemical), etc.; glass: Follett, Xinyi, etc.
Wind power: the whole machine: Yunda shares, Mingyang Intelligence, Goldwind Technology; tower: Tianshun Wind Energy, Daikin Heavy Industry (machinery), Taisheng Wind Energy; parts: Riyue shares (machinery), Xinqianglian (machinery).
Energy storage: Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Defang Nano (Automotive), Sifang Shares, Siyuan Electric, Shenghong Shares, Yongfu Shares, Paineng Technology.
In addition, Haitong Securities Research Report pointed out that the State Council issued a carbon peak action plan before 2030, and the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage was determined.
We reiterate the certainty of the growth of electric vehicles, the rapid growth of domestic demand under the policy objectives, will promote the domestic industrial chain to lead the world, under the global carbon reduction trend, the domestic industrial chain companies will increase the global market share. Recommended lithium battery industry chain in the high barriers, long-term shortage, in the global competition leader, including lithium batteries: Ningde times, BYD, Yiwei lithium energy, etc., diaphragm: Enjie shares, Xingyuan material, PVDF: Lianchuang shares, Dongyue silicon materials, East Sunshine, copper foil: Jiayuan Technology, Nord shares, negative electrode: Putailai, Zhongke Electric, Shanshan shares. Short-term focus on the recovery of lithium iron phosphate driven by safety and cost: German Nano, Fulin Seiko, Chuanheng Shares, Hubei Yihua.
In 2020, China has put into operation about 3.5GW of new energy storage (mainly electrochemical), and according to the target of 30GW, it will have nearly 10 times the growth space in the next five years. If the wind and solar in 2030 are equipped with energy storage in a 10% proportion, that is, 120GW, it corresponds to more than 30 times the growth space in 2020. Recommended energy storage system and battery cell leader: Ningde Times, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Paineng Technology. Energy storage cooling system faucet: Invik, inverter faucet: Sunshine Power. Pay attention to Ningde energy storage industry chain cooperation companies: Yongfu shares, Crestec, Nebulas shares, Estar.
Cataline era stock option exercise performance appraisal objectives:
The cumulative revenue of the four years is not less than 620 billion yuan
On October 26, CATL disclosed the stock option and restricted stock incentive plan, in which some middle management personnel (exercised in four phases) granted part of the stock options for the first time and reserved grant part of the four exercise performance appraisal goals are:
The value of operating income in 2021 is not less than 105 billion yuan;
The cumulative operating income value of the two years from 2021 to 2022 is not less than 240 billion yuan;
The cumulative operating income value of the three years from 2021 to 2023 is not less than 410 billion yuan;
The cumulative operating income value of the four years from 2021 to 2024 is not less than 620 billion yuan.
According to the lowest growth rate, the revenue growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is 108.7%, 28.6%, 26%, 23.5%, I don't know if this growth rate is in line with everyone's expectations?
In addition, a number of star funds added positions in the third quarter of the Ningde era and BYD.
For example, the 2020 public offering performance champion, the new energy theme fund of Zhao Yi of the Agricultural Bank of China Huili Fund, and the Fuguo Tianhui Select Growth Fund managed by Zhu Shaoxing, all increased their holdings in the Ningde Era in the third quarter.
Feng Mingyuan, fund manager of Cinda Australia Bank, repositioned BYD in the third quarter, and in the quarterly report, Feng Mingyuan said: "The global energy industry is undergoing profound changes, and the proportion of new energy used is increasing, which will gradually replace the mainstream status of traditional fossil energy in the next 50 years." We believe that in this process of change, a large number of great enterprises will emerge in China, and we hope to grow together with these great enterprises. ”
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