At the close of trading on October 25, 12 banks in the banking sector rose, 24 banks fell, and 5 banks closed. Among the 76 industry sectors, banks ranked 59th, led by power equipment, oil and gas extraction and services, and real estate services, real estate development and education. The Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.76%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange rose 0.72%, and the ChiNext Board rose 1.64%. The banking sector edged down 0.27 percent to close at 958.53.
In recent days, no banks have released three quarterly reports, and all bank stocks that have not released three quarterly reports will release three quarterly reports this Friday and Saturday. Make an announcement in advance, next week's main content will be to analyze the bank's three quarterly reports. If you don't like to look at the data, you can take a detour!
Earlier I said that October is most likely the harvest season for the banking sector. This week is the last week of October, how will the banking sector behave this week? We still look for answers from past performances.
In 2020, the october high was 997.34 points, up 6.39% from September 30. The last week of October was a downward trend, falling from 997.34 to 936.52, a cumulative decline of 6.10%. The highest point of October is on October 23, in the penultimate week of October.
In 2019, the October high was 1060.86 points, up 7.92% from 983 points on September 30. The last week of October was a downward trend, falling from 1048.08 to 1018.75, a cumulative decline of 2.80%. The highest point in October is on October 15, in the second week of October.
In 2018, the October high was 983.2, down 0.85% from 991.59 on September 30. The last week of October was an upward trend, from 974 points to 977.9 points, a cumulative increase of 0.4%. The highest point of October is on October 25, in the penultimate week of October.
In 2017, the highest point in October was 1139.49 points, up 1.07% from 1127.48 points on September 30, and the last week of October was only two days, both days down, from 1132.94 points to 1118.88 points, a cumulative decline of 1.24%. The October highest point is on October 9, in the first week of October.
In 2016, the highest point in October was 1060.15 points, up 2.49% from 1034.38 points on September 30. The last week of October was an upward trend, from 1028.9 points to 1060.15 points, a cumulative increase of 3.04%. The highest point in October is on October 31, in the last week of October.
Judging from the trend of the past five years, the years of the rise in October have a total of 4 years. October was a big year for the banking sector to rise, and this year is no exception. As of the close of trading on October 25, the highest point of the banking sector was located on October 22. The banking sector rose from 925.65 points on September 30 to 961.09 points on October 22, a cumulative increase of 3.83%.
In the last week of October, three years were down and two years were up. During these five years, the highest point in October was in the last week, only in 2016.
Based on the historical trend of the banking sector in the past five years, there is a 60% probability that the banking sector will fall in the following week. Even if it goes up, the probability of a rise of more than 961.09 points (the October high is in the last week) is only 20%. Comprehensive calculations show that the probability of the banking sector breaking through 961.09 points this week, that is, the point on October 22 on Friday is (1-60%)*20%=8%.
After analyzing it in this way, I believe that many of my friends are as disappointed as I am, and the climax has not yet come, and it is already over. But we still have to look forward, what can such an analysis provide for our next operation?
1, if there is no large decline this week, such as the rise in October are falling back, then do not increase the position, this week's market is not good.
2, if you have a certain income since October, you can consider taking profit appropriately after the opening, especially after the opening rush. Wait until the second half of the week falls into place and then pick up some of them.
3, Friday and Saturday there are intensive three quarterly report releases, may have a certain stimulus to the banking sector, the last week of October decline will not last long. The market in early November should reflect the three quarterly reports, when the focus will be on whether 1000 points can arrive.
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