How can China and the United States circumvent the Thucydides Trap? Chinese and American experts say so

Since taking office, the Biden administration has advocated a return of the United States to multilateralism. Many expect it to abandon the Trump-era China policy and ease Sino-US relations. However, the current US government's China policy is still unclear. On April 6, the Globalization Think Tank (CCG) held the CCG Masters Dialogue - CCG Dialogue "Thucydides Trap" proposer Graham Allison: The new era of Sino-US competition. CCG Director Wang Huiyao and Professor Allison launched a dialogue, and Li Chen, director of the Center for International Security and Strategic Studies at Chinese Min University, participated in the discussion. The dialogue revolved around major power competition from a historical perspective, a new path to avoid the Thucydides Trap, Sino-US relations after the Anchorage talks, and the global response to climate change.

At the beginning of the 21st century, the United States was a major trading partner of various economies, but in 2021, China became a major trading country for almost every economy. Twenty or thirty years ago, the United States was the world's manufacturing plant, and now, the world's manufacturing factory is China. In this reality, China's rise has had an impact on the defending United States. I liken this to the seesaw of power. China will become stronger and richer, which inevitably falls into the Thucydides Trap: the rise of one side will change the structure of power, triggering a power imbalance between the two ends of the seesaw of power. Over the past 500 years, there have been 16 "Thucydides Trap" paradigms, and only 4 have avoided war.

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union's arsenal of powerful nuclear weapons was large enough to launch a second strike, which made us very worried, and now we live in an era of mutual destruction. If one side attacks the other, both sides are destroyed, which is a suicidal act. I liken this to inseparable conjoined twins. When one of the twins acts impulsively, it can destroy the other twin, but also destroy itself. This is an example of nuclear weapons and a reality in today's U.S.-China relationship. Although the United States now has more nuclear weapons, once it enters a hot war, the United States will be destroyed.

So, on the one hand, we are competitors, but on the other hand, in nature, in technology, we have to cooperate and coexist. How can these two views coexist? We seek ways to avoid conflict and war. China and the United States can find space for cooperation in areas such as climate change and global fight against the epidemic. Even if there are third-party triggers, such as the Taiwan issue, the North Korea issue and other conflict factors, the two can find ways and mechanisms for coordination and cooperation to avoid mutual destruction.

Although the current competition between China and the United States is very different from the Cold War of the last century, we can still learn from the Cold War. In Washington and Moscow, for example, even during the darkest periods of the Cold War, our two sides were keen on deep communication. President Reagan was often blamed for communicating with Soviet leaders, but he saw communication and dialogue as critical because nuclear war was never won, there was no winner. President Reagan was so keen on negotiating with the Soviet Union that an arms control agreement was reached. The United States gave up what it originally wanted to do, and the Soviet Union did what the United States wanted the Soviet side to do. This process, over time, can stabilize the relationship and avoid potential crises that could spiral out of control. Communication also played a large role in the Berlin and Cuban Missile crises. In the Sino-US competition, there is no reason why our two countries should not learn from history, and we need to learn from history at different levels such as in-depth communication, crisis management processes, and even crisis prevention.

Thucydides-style competition often leads to disastrous consequences. So the way out now is for us to do everything we can to find ways to avoid the "Thucydides Trap", to learn from the Cold War, and to learn from the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. Fortunately, President Xi Jinping has a thorough view of this. He proposed that we should establish a "new type of major-country relationship" rather than being stuck in the old model. President Biden also has a deep understanding of this. He worries that the two countries will be locked in endless competition, which will eventually lead to disastrous consequences.

Wang Huiyao, director of the Globalization Think Tank: China and the United States can cooperate in many fields

In the more than 70 years since World War II, we have not had a major war of the world, and it is foolish and crazy to destroy each other. We should avoid this and work together to find ways to get out of the Thucydides Trap.

President Biden recently announced a massive infrastructure plan for the United States. China is highly experienced in infrastructure and has launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank( AIA), which has 103 members. Perhaps we need to suggest a new "Bretton Woods moment". China can cooperate with the United States to establish the World Infrastructure Investment Bank on the basis of the AIIB, find common ground in global interests between China and the United States, and make the cake bigger, so that the interests between China and the United States outweigh the differences. For the next 70 years or so of this century, we have so much room for collaboration.

Second, in the field of trade, China and the United States should promote cooperation. We now have the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), of which the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was its predecessor. The CPTPP has higher standards than the World Trade Organization (WTO) in many respects, including trade, intellectual property protection, digital economy, soemic reform, environmental protection, and labor rights protection. The CPTPP is like a small WTO in the 21st century, and this mechanism was first created by the Obama-Biden administration in the United States. At the APEC Economic Leaders' Informal Meeting, President Xi Jinping expressed China's interest in joining the CPTPP and in raising its own standards in these areas. This is an area where China and the United States can engage in joint dialogue. We can also use the CPTPP as a testing ground for WTO reform, while resolving bilateral contradictions and promoting the development of multilateral relations.

Moreover, if the EU is taken as a whole, it is probably the largest economy in the world and has been growing for the past 75 years. There does not seem to be a problem with the Thucydides Trap between the EU and the US. The EU may be able to act as a third party to reconcile U.S.-China relations. Europe is closer to the United States in terms of values, closer to China and the United States in economic and trade, China and the United States and Europe may be able to establish a tripartite talks mechanism, and the EU can become a good intermediary between China and the United States, helping China and the United States avoid conflicts and contradictions.

Dialogue in the field of climate change is a great opportunity to break the ice in bilateral relations. We may also be able to establish an international climate change organization to have more dialogue in these areas. As leaders of the G20 climate working group and two of the world's largest carbon emitters, the United States and China must work together to set a good example in this regard, work together, and fight COVID-19 together. John Kerry, President Biden's special envoy for climate, told me at the Munich Security Conference that the United States welcomes China's participation in the Paris Agreement to address global climate change. Therefore, China and the United States must cooperate, and China and the United States have the moral responsibility of global powers and should work together to find ways to solve all kinds of thorny issues.

Source: Reference News Network