Open Source Securities: Gives the Mona Lisa a buy rating

2021-10-27Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd. Lv Ming, Zhang Xucheng, Wang Yujun conducted a study on Mona Lisa and released a research report "Company Information Update Report: 2021Q3 Revenue Meets Expectations, Single-Quarter Net Profit Declines", this report gives a buy rating to Mona Lisa, the current stock price is 20.01 yuan.

Mona Lisa (002918)

2021Q3 revenue was in line with expectations, with single-quarter net profit declining, maintaining a "buy" rating

The company's 2021Q1-Q3 operating income was 4.927 billion yuan (+47.69% year-on-year), net profit attributable to the mother was 417 million yuan (+10.07% year-on-year), single-quarter operating income was 1.847 billion yuan (+19.25% year-on-year) in 2021Q3, and net profit attributable to the mother was 135 million yuan (year-on-year -16.87%). Revenue in line with expectations, the company continues to implement the "distribution business + engineering business" two-wheel drive model, B-end C-end business revenue at the same time to achieve growth, due to the rise in raw materials, energy prices, Q3 profitability has declined, we lowered the 2021-2023 profit forecast, is expected to 2021-2023 the company's net profit attributable to the mother of 6.90 / 8.55 / 1.114 billion yuan, (formerly 7.41 / 9.62 / 1.239 billion yuan), corresponding to EPS of 1.66 / 2.06/2.69 yuan, the current stock price corresponding to PE is 13.2/10.7/8.2 times, the company actively carry out product update iteration, increase the proportion of high value-added products, multi-channel efforts, maintain the "buy" rating.

Product iterative updates increase the proportion of high value-added products, and engineering + distribution two-wheel drive revenue growth

On the product side, high value-added products with glazed tiles, ceramic plates and thin ceramic tiles have driven revenue growth, and the company has seized market share through product iteration. On the channel side, the two-wheel drive of the engineering distribution channel accelerates the sinking speed in the retail market, actively empowers dealers to expand the small B business, and the engineering end continues to optimize the real estate customer structure.

The rise in raw material and energy prices has led to a decline in gross profit margins, and refined management has promoted the improvement of cost control capabilities

The overall gross profit margin of the company in 2021Q1-Q3 was 31.80% (-3.46pcts), and the gross profit margin in the single quarter of 2021Q3 was 30.10% (-5.84pcts), and the company's gross profit margin declined mainly due to the increase in raw material and energy prices and labor costs. The company's net margin for 2021Q1-Q3 was 8.46% (-2.89pcts) and 7.31% (-3.18pcts) for the single quarter of 2021Q3. In terms of expense ratio, the 2021Q1-Q3 company's sales expense ratio is 8.97% (-1.55pcts), management expense ratio is 10.37% (+0.61pcts), mainly due to the acquisition of Jiangxi Holding subsidiary, the increase in compensation and asset depreciation expense, the R&D expense ratio of 3.77% (+0.09pcts), mainly due to the company's continuous adjustment of product structure, continuous increase in product research and development investment, financial expense ratio of 0.66% (+0.51pcts), The overall expense ratio decreased to 19.99% (-0.43pcts) and the cost control capacity improved.

Operating cash flow improved year-on-year, with accounts receivable and notes receivable increasing more

2021Q1-Q3 The company's net operating cash flow was -132 million yuan (+7.01%), accounts receivable and bills receivable were 1.776 billion yuan (+56.01%), affected by the real estate control policy, the return of real estate project payments was delayed.

Risk warning: the risk of raw material price fluctuations; the risk of intensified market competition; the risk that the company's production capacity is less than expected

A total of 20 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, with 16 buy ratings and 4 overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 42.61; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that mona Lisa (002918) good company rating is 3.5 stars, good price rating is 4 stars, and valuation composite rating is 3.5 stars.