The United States ran to ASEAN to brush up on its sense of existence and win over ASEAN to "confront China"? Lee Hsien Loong: We don't want to be forced to take sides

Source: Global Times

The three-day ASEAN series of summits opened online on October 26. Indications are that this will not be a calm summit: "ASEAN rarely imposes conditions on attendance" and "Myanmar's caretaker government leaders" rarely refuse to attend; "China", the US leader returns to the ASEAN summit after a four-year absence and plans to invest more than $100 million to "seek to strengthen its presence in the Pacific region"; and the nuclear submarine supply agreement announced by the United States, Britain and Australia before the summit casts a shadow on the ASEAN regional peace goal of "committing to building a nuclear-weapon-free zone in Southeast Asia". In the undercurrent of the regional game, China has won more trust from ASEAN countries with practical actions. At the ASEAN-China Summit held on the 26th, SingaporeAn Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong spoke positively of China's support for ASEAN and suggested accelerating bilateral cooperation. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang put forward 6 suggestions on the next stage of China-ASEAN cooperation at the summit on the 26th, and he stressed that peace in the South China Sea is in the common interests of China and ASEAN countries. China is willing to speed up the consultation process with ASEAN countries and strive to reach an early conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, so as to build the South China Sea into a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation.

Li Keqiang put forward 6 cooperation suggestions

The 38th and 39th ASEAN Summits, which were held concurrently due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, opened on the 26th in Bandar Seri Begawan, the capital of Brunei.

Premier Li Keqiang attended the 24th China-ASEAN Leaders' Meeting by video on the afternoon of the 26th, and co-chaired the meeting with Sultan Hassanal of Brunei, the rotating chairman of ASEAN. Li Keqiang said that "China always regards ASEAN as a priority direction for peripheral diplomacy", and he put forward 6 suggestions for China-ASEAN cooperation in the next stage: First, jointly build a healthy defense line. The second is to deepen economic integration. The third is to promote inclusive development. The fourth is to adhere to innovation-driven. Fifth, expand green cooperation. Sixth, consolidate the foundation of public opinion.

According to reports, the leaders of the participating ASEAN countries said that the ASEAN-China relationship is the most comprehensive and strategic relationship between ASEAN and its dialogue partners, and supports the further improvement and upgrading of bilateral relations. ASEAN countries are willing to work with China to fully and effectively implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and reach an effective and substantive Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as soon as possible. It is hoped that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) will enter into force at an early date, and it is expected to hold a summit with China to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of dialogue relations between the two sides. The meeting issued the China-ASEAN Joint Statement on Cooperation and Support for the Framework for ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Recovery and the Joint Statement on Strengthening China-ASEAN Cooperation in Green and Sustainable Development.

At the summit, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong outlined how ASEAN can work with Beijing in its post-COVID-19 recovery efforts, according to Singapore's Straits Times. He praised Beijing's swift support for ASEAN's response to the outbreak, including funding ASEAN to help people in the region buy much-needed vaccines. Lee Hsien Loong proposed to strengthen the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and upgrade the China-ASEAN Air Transport Agreement. He said Singapore agreed in principle with China's proposal to elevate relations with ASEAN to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" and called on other ASEAN countries to ratify the RCEP as soon as possible.

Thailand's "Bangkok Post" commented on the 26th that during the first 25 years (1991-2016), the relationship between ASEAN and China was "as beautiful and smooth as silk", however, on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two sides, the strategic environment has undergone significant changes. In recent years, the relationship has become complicated by controversial issues such as the South China Sea and the impact of strategic competition between the United States and China. The joint response to the impact of COVID-19 and vaccine cooperation and socio-economic recovery has added a new dimension to the strategic landscape of China-ASEAN relations. Meanwhile, the latest trade data shows that ASEAN has replaced the EU as China's largest trading partner in the first half of this year.

The United States came to ASEAN to brush up on the sense of existence

According to the Nikkei Asian Review reported on the 26th, Biden will lead the US delegation to the ASEAN-US video summit held later on Tuesday, and on Wednesday he will also attend the East Asia Summit attended by the leaders of 18 countries, including China, India and Russia. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the 26th that President Putin will participate in the ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit by video.

According to the Washington Observer, Biden announced at the summit on the 26th that it would invest $102 million in ASEAN for health, climate, economic and education projects to expand its strategic partnership with ASEAN. In the face of China's rise as a national security and economic rival to the United States, Biden is seeking to strengthen the U.S. presence in the Pacific, the Associated Press said. Earlier, the White House said Biden would discuss at the summit the U.S. "enduring commitment to regional affairs with ASEAN at its core." Hibbert, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said: "This is the first time Biden has met with ASEAN leaders since he became president, and he wants to assure them that Southeast Asia is important to his administration. "Eyes on China's Biden at the ASEAN series of summits." The "India Today" magazine website commented on the 26th that interaction with ASEAN countries is part of Biden's "counter-China strategy", reflecting the United States' efforts to unite with southeast Asian allies and partners to jointly confront China. Still, Biden said he showed no sign of plans to return to the regional trade framework that Trump withdrew in 2017.

"Bangkok Post" said on the 26th that the United States, Britain and Australia signed a trilateral security partnership agreement, and ASEAN was kept in the dark in advance and felt very angry. The Nikkei Asian Review said on the 26th that in criticizing the "Augustus" alliance, China and ASEAN have the same position. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said last week that the alliance "aims to use the outdated Cold War mentality to impact the ASEAN-centric regional cooperation architecture and undermine regional prosperity and stability." The US CNBC website said on the 26th that Biden is also expected to reassure ASEAN that the United States has recently strengthened contacts with India, Japan and Australia under the framework of the "Quadripartite Security Dialogue" and the agreement to supply nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, "not to replace ASEAN's core role in the region." Kagan, senior director for East Asian and Oceania affairs at the White House National Security Council, said last week that Washington was interested in working with ASEAN to ensure supply chains are resilient in the implementation of the climate agreement and to address "common challenges on ocean issues," an apparent allusion to China's claims in the South China Sea. CNBC said the United States sees ASEAN as "the key to its strategy to confront China."

On October 26, 2021, local time, Singapore, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong attended the 38th and 39th ASEAN Summits and the East Asia Cooperation Leaders' Meetings held in Brunei online through video.

However, confronting China is clearly not the consensus of ASEAN countries. Lee Hsien Loong said at the summit on the 26th: "We do not want this region to become a place of competition and conflict, nor do we want to be forced to choose sides." We also hope that China and the United States can deepen substantive engagement with us in addition to competition and in accordance with ASEAN's own advantages. Lee Hsien Loong said he welcomed the recent high-level exchanges between China and the United States and hoped that China and the United States would cooperate in areas of common interest while there was competition and differences on some issues.

The Myanmar crisis tore ASEAN apart

ASEAN, which continues to find a balance between China and the United States, is now facing internal tears over the Burma crisis. According to the Associated Press reported on the 26th, Myanmar caretaker government spokesman Sommin Thun Thong confirmed on the 25th that ASEAN invited Qian Ai, permanent secretary of the foreign ministry of the military government, to attend the ASEAN summit as a "non-political representative", but did not invite Myanmar's caretaker government Prime Minister Min Aung Nhat to attend. Si A, a senior fellow at the Yusov Issa Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, said "ASEAN rarely imposes conditions on attendance", which the Myanmar military believes is "external intervention" at work.

The Myanmar Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the evening of the 25th that Myanmar has informed Brunei that it can only accept the participation of Min Aung Nhay or ministerial representatives and will challenge ASEAN's decision. According to the Lianhe Zaobao, when the summit was held on the 26th, the presidency still prepared a video window for Myanmar, but the screen was empty. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said at the summit on the 26th: "ASEAN does not have a framework to expel Myanmar from ASEAN. Myanmar has waived its rights. On the same day, Indonesian President Joko Widodo expressed regret in his speech at the summit about Myanmar's "unwelcome attitude" towardSSEAN diplomatic efforts. He said ASEAN sincerely hoped for the rapid restoration of democracy in Myanmar through an inclusive process and called for humanitarian assistance to be provided to the people of Myanmar. Thai Prime Minister Prayut Prayut urged Myanmar to implement the 5-point consensus it agreed with ASEAN and approve the entry of ASEAN envoys to mediate in the conflict between local parties.

Connelly, an expert at the British Institute for International Strategic Studies, told AFP on the 26th that ASEAN's ban on myanmar caretaker government leaders from attending the meeting "is the most significant sanction ever imposed on member countries by ASEAN." Observers say that while countries such as Malaysia have been urging ASEAN to take action against Myanmar, otherSM countries have not spoken out in this way.

The theme of this year's ASEAN Summit is "We Care, We Prepare, We Prosper", and in addition to discussing the Myanmar crisis, countries will also discuss a series of major regional issues, including economic recovery, supply chains and the fight against the epidemic, in preparation for the development of the post-epidemic era. Indonesian President Joko Widodo said at the summit on the 26th that the ASEAN region must take the decline in the number of new crown pneumonia cases as a driving force for common progress. He stressed the importance of reactivating tourism and called on ASEAN countries to accelerate their adaptation to the digital economy.

The Bangkok Post said on the 26th that China and ASEAN hope to complete the second reading of the first single draft of the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" before the November summit, and the epidemic has postponed the negotiation of the broader substantive content of the code, "the preamble has not been completed in the near future". A Thai diplomat told the Nikkei Asian Review on the 26th that the draft presidential statement will not mention "Okus", but there will be a paragraph indicating that ASEAN is "committed to the Southeast Asian region as a nuclear-weapon-free zone".

"ASEAN is experiencing a very difficult test", the Russian Satellite News Agency quoted Russian expert Sumsky as saying on the 25th, the Myanmar crisis and "Okus" seriously hindered ASEAN from playing a central role in the regional political and security cooperation framework. "'Orcus' is fragmenting regional space into fragments that are not under ASEAN control, each of which has taken some of the role it is supposed to play in the region. And all the forces coordinating these new blocs are trying to seize the political initiative of ASEAN." Soumsky said That China does not want ASEAN to be marginalized in addressing global security issues and that it is not in China's interest to weaken ASEAN's influence.

【Global Times Correspondent in Indonesia Xu Wei Global Times Special Correspondent in Singapore Xin Bin Liu Yupeng】

Read more in the Global Times published today or download the new GlobalTIME client.