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On May 18, 2021, Vladimir Postpelov, Executive Committee of the Russian Military Industry Council and member of the Maritime Commission of the Federal Government, explained the demonstration of the State Armament Development Plan for 2024-2033 (hereinafter referred to as the new version of the plan), which focused on the future construction of naval equipment.
First, the construction of naval equipment will not be greatly adjusted before 2033
Posperov said that in view of the characteristics of the long construction cycle and long service time of naval equipment, such as the batch production cycle of nuclear submarines of 7-8 years and the service of at least 35 years, the naval equipment has been planned until 2050, and the new version of the plan is similar to the naval equipment construction goals in the current plan. By 2033, Russia plans to complete the mass construction of the fourth generation of "North Wind" class strategic nuclear submarines and "Yasen" class attack nuclear submarines, 22350M frigates, 20385 and 20386 light frigates and other main battle platforms.
Second, the new aircraft carrier will start construction at least 10 years later
Posperov said that when demonstrating the new version of the plan, the construction capacity and cost of the new aircraft carrier were evaluated. In principle, Russia needs to build 3 aircraft carriers, the first ship is 1, the batch production is 2, the first cost is about 500 billion rubles, but there are many uncertainties that lead to cost increases, so it is necessary to accurately assess all stages of construction, so that the cost error is in the range of 10-20%, and the doubling of costs must be avoided.
Although the current Russian ship design unit has announced several types of new aircraft carrier concepts and has good technical reserves in terms of nuclear power for ships, none of the shipyards have the industrial capability to build aircraft carriers. The Northern Machinery Manufacturing Plant has the potential to build an aircraft carrier after being modified and upgraded, but it is undertaking the mass production task of the fourth generation of nuclear submarines, and if the aircraft carrier is built, there is a risk that the nuclear submarine and the aircraft carrier will be "stranded" at the same time.
In terms of carrier-based aircraft, the new aircraft carrier is planned to carry more carrier-based aircraft than the "Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier, but it will not be the Su-33 and MiG-29, but the sea-based version of the Su-57 fighter and the UAV.
Postelov assessed that it would take at least 10 years for shipyards and carrier-based aircraft to have sufficient technical reserves. Relevant Russian experts also suggested that the new aircraft carrier project should be included in the special development plan, if included in the new version of the plan, then the aircraft carrier funding will "swallow" all other naval projects.
Table 1 New aircraft carrier concept proposed by Russia
Third, by 2030, prepare for the construction of the fifth generation of nuclear submarines
Posperov said that by 2030, it is planned to complete the construction of the fifth generation of nuclear submarines, and the biggest feature of this class of submarines is equipped with a robot system, which significantly improves the level of automation, and adopts modular components that can be replaced every 5 years to improve the service life. At present, the navigation, underwater sound, communication, and launch systems equipped with Russian mass-produced nuclear submarines operate separately, and the fifth-generation nuclear submarines integrate each system into a unified platform for control, and the information fusion of each system and equipment generates action instructions and transmits them to the commander for decision-making.
Fourth, develop unmanned equipment at sea in parallel with other naval powers
Persperov said that the world's naval powers develop ultra-small, small, medium and large maritime unmanned equipment based on artificial intelligence technology, and each type of equipment has specific uses, including reconnaissance, anti-mine, strike and so on. Posperov confirmed that several Russian scientific research units are also conducting such research, such as the Warrior-D unmanned submersible, which was infiltrated into the Mariana Trench at a depth of 10,028 meters in May 2020, and is scheduled to be delivered to the Navy after the end of the sea trial.
Fifth, continue to improve the stealth and reliability of ships
Persperov said that surface ships built during the Soviet period are like "hedgehogs" and are covered with dozens of antennas. The new surface ships enhance stealth in terms of shape and materials, that is, the radar antenna is concentrated in the superstructure, and the hull uses composite materials and special coatings.
In addition, Postelov believes that shipboard equipment tends to be complicated and the requirements for technicians are getting higher and higher. The Yasen-class Kazan-class attack nuclear submarine, which was delivered in May 2021, was later than planned due to the length of time it took to resolve the system's interface with other equipment when dismantling a ship-based system. The "North Wind" class strategic nuclear submarines and the "Yasen" class attack nuclear submarines have been equipped with deviations in equipment and technical documents, and the regulatory authorities have verified all aspects of the process from metal procurement to technical approval, and finally revoked the leaders involved in 2-3 shipyards, but it took several months to affect the overall construction progress.
6. Summary
Judging from Persperov's expression, the current Russian naval equipment has a relatively stable replacement rhythm, and the main battle equipment projects such as the "North Wind" class strategic nuclear submarine and the "Yasen" class attack nuclear submarine that have been implemented for many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union have been in the mass production stage, which can support the modernization rate of future naval equipment and maintain a certain level of combat strength; at the same time, Russia still focuses on maintaining the development potential of underwater equipment, actively reserves submarine technology, and maintains the ability to build plants. And in the development of the next generation of equipment to integrate the updated design concept, positioned at the world's top level; objective evaluation of the fact that the aircraft carrier cost is high, the production capacity is lacking, the aircraft carrier project only has sufficient technical reserves, shipyard construction capabilities in place, there is a possibility of being included in the national equipment plan.
(Blue Starfish: Meng Guang)