Real estate regulation and control continued to deepen, the heat of market transactions declined, and the traditional "golden nine silver ten" lost its color
Friends who pay attention to the real estate market know that September and October of each year are the traditional peak seasons of real estate sales, which is called "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in the industry. However, now that the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in 2021 has passed more than half, the property market is very calm, even if there are developers who work hard to "shout", but the enthusiasm for buying houses is not high. In the small holiday that just passed, the author went to the sales office to look at it, and found that many sales offices that should have been crowded became much deserted.
Judging from the data, this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" has indeed lost its color, and the market transaction has declined significantly.
According to the research data released by the agency, in September, 28 typical cities were monitored, and the heat of commercial residential transactions continued to decline, with the transaction scale of 19.55 million square meters, down 7% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year. Among them, first-tier cities fell by 23% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year; second- and third-tier cities fell by 4% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year. Affected by the decline in market transactions, the deindustrialization cycle is also generally lengthened.
For example, the inventory digestion cycle of Beijing, Changchun, Xuzhou, Kunming, Qingdao, Foshan, Zhengzhou, Nanning and other cities has exceeded 15 months, of which Changchun, Xuzhou, Kunming, and Qingdao even exceeded 20 months.
However, even so, the tone of strict and tight real estate regulation has not changed.
According to agency statistics, the number of real estate regulations during the year has exceeded 400 times, with an average of 1.5 times a day. Not only that, just a few days ago, that is, on September 29, the central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly held a real estate finance work forum, which once again reiterated "insisting that the house is used to live, not to speculate on the positioning, and insisting on not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy." Therefore, according to the current property market, real estate regulation will not only not be relaxed, but also maintain a long-term trend, and under the "three red lines", in order to cope with the decline in sales and the demand for return funds, the next developer's price reduction promotion activities will continue.
In the face of the current market, buyers who are ready to buy a house are very concerned about the future housing price problem. Recently, many buyers around have consulted, if the house price continues to adjust downward, then how much room will fall? In other words, what will be the biggest decline in house prices in the future? In fact, for this issue, many people in the industry have revealed the "bottom line". But before answering this question, let's take a look at the 3 problems in the current real estate market so that we can better understand the trend of house prices.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="6" > 3 problems in the current real estate market</h1>
1, the house price income is relatively high.
Regarding whether house prices are high or not, from different perspectives, there are different views. However, one thing cannot be denied is that for young people who have just entered the society, in the first- and second-tier big cities, it is indeed not an easy task to buy a suite by relying on their own economic ability.
According to the 2020 100 cities house price income ratio survey report released by the agency, the average house price income ratio of 100 cities last year was 13.2, which was much higher than the reasonable range of 4-6 in the world. In addition, from the perspective of the top 5 cities with house price and income ratio, the ratio is above 30, which means that it takes at least 30 years to afford a suite without eating or drinking. Among them, the house price-to-income ratio of Shenzhen is as high as 48.1, ranking first in the list, becoming the most difficult city in the country to buy a house.
In this regard, China Youth Daily has also denounced the impact of high housing prices on young people: let young people dare not buy a house, dare not fall in love, dare not get married, and dare not have children.
2. The leverage ratio of residents is high.
According to central bank data, mortgages are the main component of household debt, accounting for 75.9%. As the biggest expense of ordinary households, these years have also pushed the leverage ratio of residents to continue to rise. According to the data, as of the end of 2020, the leverage ratio of China's residents was 62.2%, which was significantly higher than the average level of emerging market countries (50.6%). If compared with historical data, in 2008, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents was still 18%, and it rose by 44.2% in 12 years, and the growth rate and growth rate were very obvious.
So, how do you measure the current level of leverage? According to international practice, when the leverage ratio of the residential sector exceeds 65%, it will affect financial stability. In fact, the central bank has also clearly pointed out: "In recent years, the leverage ratio of China's residential sector has continued to rise, and the space for the continued expansion of resident debt has been very limited, and related risks are worth paying attention to."
Therefore, we have seen that in the past one or two years, the state has begun to strictly control the illegal flow of funds into real estate, and has continuously tightened the credit policy related to real estate, thus steadily promoting deleveraging.
3. The vacancy rate of houses is high.
Economist Ren Zeping said in "China's Housing Stock Calculation: Surplus or Shortage": From 1978 to 2018, the number of urban housing units in China increased from about 31 million to about 311 million, and the ratio of housing units to households increased from 0.8 to 1.09. So, how much housing is in surplus?
According to the Statistics Bureau, as of 2018, China's urban permanent population was 850 million, with an average household population of 3.08 people, and almost 275 million houses were needed to meet these housing needs. As a result, the total housing surplus is about 0.36 (311 million to 275 million) million units. So where did all those 360 million homes go? There is no doubt that they have been bought by multiple homeowners, either for rent or vacant.
For this problem, the data released by the China Household Finance Survey and Research Center of Southwest University of Finance and Finance shows that the vacancy rate of commercial housing ranks first in all types of housing, and shows a continuous upward trend, currently as high as 26.6%. Obviously, the high-altitude placement rate is already a problem that cannot be ignored, and it is much higher than the reasonable range of 5-10 in the world.
Through the housing price income ratio, resident leverage ratio, housing vacancy rate three points of view, the author believes that the future house price level is difficult to continue to usher in a big rise, coupled with the housing is not speculated has become a long-term positioning, so the house price adjustment will be a long-term trend. Although there is still a problem of unbalanced distribution of housing, with the steady advancement of real estate taxes, vacancy taxes, and the housing rental market, there will be more and more houses in the future market.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="14" > how much room is there for house prices to "fall"? Industry insiders "go through the bottom" </h1>
What will be the biggest room for house prices to fall, which is a matter of great concern to all market players. For home buyers, the decline in house prices means that the cost and difficulty of buying a house are reduced, which is naturally good news. However, for developers, the decline in house prices means a decrease in profits, coupled with the mentality of buyers who buy up and do not buy down, so it often leads to sales becoming more difficult and difficult. Of course, local governments do not want to see the decline in house prices too large, otherwise it will directly affect market confidence and land finance.
Sun Hongbin
Therefore, whether it is a developer or a locality, there is a bottom line for the tolerance of falling house prices. So, what is this bottom line? As the so-called "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet", Pan Shiyi once said that 20% is basically the bottom line of the decline in house prices, if this number is exceeded, the vast majority of real estate companies will no longer exist. In addition, Sun Hongbin also expressed similar views. He believes that it is impossible to expect house prices to rise, but the decline in house prices cannot reach 30%, and if it really wants to fall by 30%, developers will not survive.
Chen Zhiwu
Chen Zhiwu, a well-known economist, said that judging from past experience, a 20% drop in house prices is a limit that the local government can afford. He also added: The 20% drop in house prices is just a ceiling, and it may not necessarily fall to this much, and there will be a turn in regulation.
In fact, buyers are deeply touched by this. In the past month or so, Yueyang, Guilin, Heze, Jiangyin, Zhuzhou, Tangshan, Zhangjiakou and other cities have issued "restriction orders". Among them, according to the new regulations issued by various cities, 15% is almost the largest decline that can be tolerated. For example, Yueyang in Hunan and Zhangjiakou in Hebei province clearly stipulate that they must not be sold below 85% of the filing price.
Sheng Songcheng
In the author's view, the downward space of house prices should be divided into two levels: 1, house prices can fall, after all, the profits of the real estate industry are much higher than those of manufacturing, and with the ratio of house price income and residents' leverage ratio rising, the house prices in many hot cities have exceeded the economic ability of buyers. 2, although house prices can fall, but the short-term reach 15%, 20% or 30% of such a decline is unrealistic, not only developers, places can not stand, there is no way to accept the family, after all, 70% of the wealth of residents are houses.
In this regard, Sheng Songcheng, former director of the Central Bank's Investigation and Statistics Department, also said that a slight decline in house prices is a good thing, but a short-term decline of 15%, a three-year decline of 50% such a range will not only hurt the economy, but also affect social stability.
Actually, it's not hard to understand. We may wish to take an example: according to the statistics of China House Price Quotes Network, the current average house price level in Shenzhen is 65593 yuan per square meter, assuming that the purchase of a 100 square meter ordinary house, the total housing payment needs more than 6.5 million. If house prices fall by 30% in the short term, which is equivalent to a loss of nearly 2 million, not only will the down payment fall, but it may also be the income of an ordinary family for one or two decades.
Therefore, in the short term, the moderate and stable adjustment of house prices is the result of the various entities of the property market. In the past three or four years, the regulation of the property market has always emphasized the stability of the word, through various measures to make the house price rise slightly, fall slightly or maintain a sideways, not only to promote the stable development of the real estate market, but also to create a favorable housing environment for just needs. In the long run, with the further formation of the pattern of housing oversupply, coupled with the landing and development of real estate taxes, housing leases, vacancy taxes and other policies, the stable decline in housing prices is also a foreseeable trend.