#如果吴三桂不打开山海关, whether the Eight Banners of the Manchu Qing Dynasty would enter Guannei and take over the world #
"Dinghu abandoned the human world that day, broke the enemy to take over the Capital Yuguan, wept that the Six Armies were full of susu, and Chong Guan became angry and became red-faced..." Although there was still great controversy about whether Wu Sangui opened Shanhaiguan and released the Qing army into the customs because of Chen Yuanyuan, one of the "Eight Yans of Qin Huai", there was still a great controversy, but Wu Sangui let the Qing army enter the customs, resulting in the Qing Dynasty entering the Central Plains for nearly 300 years, which is an ironclad matter.
Then, if Wu Sangui did not open Shanhaiguan when he entered the customs, could the Qing Dynasty enter the customs and gain the world? Today we will discuss this issue in detail.
First of all, let's see, is Shanhaiguan the only land passage connecting the outside and inside the customs? Given that the qing dynasty sailors were so weak and negligible at that time, we can ignore the existence of sea passages.
The answer is no.
We know that during the Ming Dynasty, in order to resist the remnants of the Mongol remnants of the desert and the Jurchen forces in the northeast, a military defense project stretching for thousands of miles was built between the lofty mountains and mountains from Shanhaiguan in the east to Jiayuguan in the west, the Great Wall. The role of the Great Wall is to "bend over the ancient Hu soldiers, and ten thousand heavy flesh and blood cast tranquility", protecting the people inside the Guanxi from the invasion of the nomadic cavalry outside the Guan.
It is not enough to have a wall. The Ming Dynasty stationed troops along the Great Wall, especially at important passes such as Shanhaiguan, Juyongguan, Yanmenguan, Jiayuguan, etc., and also stationed heavy troops. In the era of cold weapons, these important passes are almost impenetrable.
However, the Great Wall was too long, and the Ming Dynasty did its best to send heavy troops at every pass — which would put the Ming Dynasty's logistical support capabilities to a severe test. In some passes, the Ming Dynasty could only symbolically station dozens or hundreds of soldiers. At the same time, after the Construction of the Great Wall, it needs to be repaired frequently. Once in disrepair, some sections of the road will collapse.
These were the weak links of the Great Wall, which were easily breached by the Qing army.
However, due to the asymmetry of information, the Qing army needed to spend time and energy to find. On the other hand, these weak links are often located in very remote areas. Even if the Qing army broke through these weak links, it was far from the heart of the Ming Dynasty, and the Ming Dynasty had enough time to mobilize a large army to resist the Qing invasion.
In 1629, there was a great famine in the Qing Dynasty (Later Jin), and there was a crisis in the country. In order to survive the difficulties, Emperor Taiji was forced to take the risk of attacking the Ming Dynasty. Emperor Taiji led more than 100,000 troops, avoiding Ningyuan and Jinzhou, detouring through Mongolia, and quietly breaking into Guannei from Longjing Pass, Hongshan Pass, and Da'an Pass in the north. Subsequently, the Houjin army passed through Zunhua and other places, directly approached the Beijing Division, and besieged it for more than a month.
Longjing Pass, Hongshan Pass, Da'an Kou, when you hear the names of these passes, do you feel very strange? Strange is right. These passes were originally small passes on the Great Wall, at best capable of dealing with small streams of wandering rangers of dozens or hundreds of people, and had no resistance to the regular cavalry led by Emperor Taiji.
After that, the Qing Dynasty army had broken through the weak links of the Great Wall into Guannei three times in 1636, 1639 and 1642. Every time the Qing army entered the pass, it attacked the city strategically, plundered a large amount of property and population, and once attacked as far as southern Shandong and northern Jiangsu.
Next, we analyze, since the Qing army was able to break through the weak links of the Great Wall into Guannei, could it easily destroy the Ming Dynasty in this way?
The answer is also no.
Everyone found that no, in the 4 battles of the Qing Dynasty army, each time it would not take the capture of the city as the main goal. The Ming Dynasty records that a Houjin spy captured by the Ming army admitted that they "did not attack the city, but only plundered the village forts." Of course, the Qing army would tentatively attack the city because the treasures in the city were more abundant. But once the city is difficult to conquer, they will retreat and turn elsewhere.
For example, in 1634, when Emperor Taiji led his troops to move on the inside of the Great Wall, he began to attack Xuanfu, but was repelled by Ming artillery, and then turned to Yingzhou and conquered it. Another army led by Azig unsuccessfully attacked Longmen and then switched to attacking Bao'an Prefecture (安州, in modern Zhuolu, Hebei). Another army, led by Daishan's father and son, began to attack Huairen, but did not capture it, and immediately attacked Jingping (井坪, in modern Pinglu, Shanxi), but still unsuccessful, and Emperor Taiji ordered them to attack Mayi.
What is the reason for this?
Quite simply, even if the Qing army invaded Guannei, it did not establish a solid base area, and without adequate logistical support, it could not pose a fatal threat to the Ming Dynasty. Therefore, the Purpose of the Qing Dynasty's army entering the customs several times was to weaken the strength of the Ming Dynasty and restrain the Ming Army from threatening Liaodong. At the same time, it will investigate the geographical environment and customs of the Central Plains to create conditions for later accession to the Central Plains.
We can further speculate that if Wu Sangui did not open Shanhaiguan, then the Qing army could only continue to attack the Ming Dynasty in the above way. Whether the Ming Dynasty can continue to survive depends on whether the ability to replenish blood can be greater than blood loss. On the bad side, maybe the Ming Dynasty will perish because of excessive blood loss; on the other hand, perhaps the Qing Dynasty, which is backward in productive forces, will not be able to consume the Ming Dynasty and finish playing it in advance.