Li Yan: Biden's administration is beginning to bear fruit, and deep challenges are emerging
Author: Li Yan, Deputy Director, Institute of American Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
Source: U.S.-China Spotlight
WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue
Since taking office on January 20, Biden has been in power for nearly half a year, and his main domestic and foreign policies have been gradually unfolded, and the start has been generally stable and successful. However, the deep contradictions in American political society have also begun to emerge, which will greatly limit the effectiveness of the administration under Biden.
From the perspective of domestic governance, Biden has made responding to the epidemic, reviving the economy, ensuring social equality, and addressing climate change as four key policies, and these key areas are currently effective. Biden took a series of measures to focus on the epidemic at the beginning of his presidency, and the current epidemic situation in the United States is generally under control, and the number of daily confirmed cases has dropped from 200,000 at the peak to about 20,000. Vaccination progress is at the leading level among developed countries, with adult population vaccination rates approaching 60 percent. The apparent improvement in the epidemic situation has laid the foundation for the reopening of American society. In terms of economy, Biden launched a number of stimulus plans against the epidemic, driving a significant increase in domestic consumption and corporate investment, and the US economy began to move towards normal operation. U.S. GDP grew by 6.4 percent annually in the first quarter, and economic growth is expected to be higher in the second and third quarters. In solving the problem of social equality, Biden has also made great efforts to govern, and the results remain to be seen. At this stage, Biden's attention is focused on the racial issues that have plagued The United States for decades, while seeking to reverse the widening income gap. Biden's "U.S. Employment Plan," "U.S. Family Plan," and fiscal year 2022 federal government budget not only seek economic growth, but also attach importance to ensuring "fairness of growth" and government investment in education, health care and other areas of livelihood. On climate change, Biden formed the White House Office of Climate Policy and appointed a special envoy to the president on climate change to integrate climate change issues into the domestic and foreign policy framework. Building on these institutional changes, Biden has drawn up a multi-billion dollar clean energy development plan internally, proposed an ambitious plan to achieve 100% clean electricity and automobiles by 2035, and hosted an online summit on climate change to reduce carbon emissions by half by 2030. It remains to be seen how these policies will progress, but the curtain has been lifted on the "New Climate Deal".
Biden's foreign policy layout has also been clear, and restoring the international influence of the United States as the focus of governance has achieved more brilliant results than domestic policies. The devastating impact of Trump's four years in office, coupled with the accelerated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the international image of the United States, has brought unprecedented challenges to U.S. international influence. Faced with such a background, Biden has returned to the "diplomatic priority" route, focused on improving alliance relations, returned to multilateral organizations, sought to reshape the foundation of U.S. international influence, and declared the "return of the United States." Biden strengthened relations with traditional allies such as Japan and South Korea in the Indo-Pacific region, continued to promote the "quadrilateral mechanism", and achieved the first summit meeting between the United States, Japan, India and Australia. Through participating in a series of diplomatic actions such as the US-EU summit, the G7 summit, and the NATO summit, we will improve our relations with European allies and stabilize the leadership position of the United States in the Western camp. Recent relevant data from well-known polling agencies Pew and Gallup show that the "trust" of the United States among major allies has increased significantly. At the same time, Biden attaches great importance to the role of multilateral mechanisms, not only returning to international mechanisms or organizations such as the Paris Agreement, WHO, and the United Nations Commission on Human Rights, but also using the banners of "common values", "supply chain security" and "international rules" to form small multilateral mechanisms in different fields to promote "like-minded countries" and cooperation. These practices have had the initial effect of repairing the image of the United States and reflect the aggressive character of Biden's diplomacy.
In Biden's above-mentioned diplomatic layout, the China factor has become an important driving force for his policy advancement. As the proposed U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 shows, the Chinese factor is ubiquitous in the Biden administration's global strategic layout, and strategic competition with China has become the greatest common denominator of U.S. bipartisan foreign policy. From Blinken's exposition of the "competition-cooperation-confrontation" view of China in March, to the Announcement by White House Indo-Pacific Coordinator Campbell at a Stanford University seminar in May that "engagement with China is over", and the recent completion of the Defense Department's "China Working Group" assessment of China policy, the Biden administration's positioning and basic policy framework for China have become clear. Promoting the global strategic layout around the Chinese factor and driving strategic competition with China through the implementation of the global strategy have become an important feature of Biden's foreign policy. Under this influence, the situation of major country relations with Sino-US strategic competition as the main axis may undergo a new round of adjustment and transmutation.
The advancement of Biden's domestic and foreign policies will inevitably still encounter profound constraints from various contradictions in the United States, and the effectiveness and sustainability of the "return of the United States" diplomacy are bound to face many challenges. Biden's series of "de-Trump" domestic policies have been fiercely attacked by the Republican Party, and the disputes between the two parties over issues such as voting rights, infrastructure bills, and budgets have gradually intensified. For Biden, who is eager to solve domestic problems, the contradictions between the two parties remain a long-term constraint on his administration. At the same time, progressive forces in the Democratic Party are seeking to shape Biden's policy agenda, which will constrain Biden's overall plan to seek bipartisan unity and thus "build back better." In terms of the linkage of domestic and foreign policies, once biden's major agendas such as infrastructure legislation cannot be passed in Congress, the side effects of fiscal stimulus on the economy are prominent, and the potential risks of such domestic policies will also drag down the implementation of Biden's foreign policy. In addition, Biden's measures such as regaining the "old routine" of the Democratic Party to deal with China and improve alliance relations are also facing a major test of the international pattern. In the international trend of focusing on fighting the epidemic and seeking peace and stability, the usual AMERICAN tactics such as offshore checks and balances, value diplomacy, and exclusive "small circles" are becoming more and more out of date, and it is more difficult to have long-term policy attractiveness.
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