On October 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that at a time when global oil continues to be in short supply, the price of WTI crude oil in the United States may rush to a high of $100 / barrel. Sure enough, the price of WTI crude oil continued to approach $100 / barrel, and as of October 18, it broke through $83 / barrel.
However, the latest news shows that economists at OCBC Bank in Singapore are highly skeptical of the forecast that the PRICE of US crude oil will exceed $100, which is unlikely. He analyzed that although the chart shows that there is no obvious resistance before the oil price reaches $100, from the perspective of the oil market structure, it can only support the $100/ barrel oil price at the point of time, only before the US shale gas boom.
Since the U.S. shale oil revolution in 2012, the global supply of crude oil has grown sharply, and it is difficult for oil prices to rush to high levels under such supply. Moreover, high oil prices of more than $80 a barrel are driving a surge in shale oil production in the Permian Basin, the largest oil-producing region in the United States, which is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this month at 4.9 million barrels per day.
Still, according to CCTV4, Russia said its president Putin's forecasts of prospects such as U.S. crude oil are sometimes very accurate and well-founded, not scaring anyone, and may even be becoming a reality.
You know, at present, OPEC+ has not heeded the requirements of the United States, but has actively fulfilled the crude oil production reduction agreement, which means that the global crude oil supply has a long way to go to restore to the normal level before the epidemic. In addition, due to the impact of extreme weather in the United States, some crude oil production facilities were once shut down, which also reduced the supply of international crude oil.
In addition, the negative impact of the gas crisis in Europe is spreading globally, and the demand for crude oil as an important alternative fuel for natural gas is also increasing, which may support international oil prices in the short term. Following this trend, the possibility of US crude oil rushing to $100 / barrel is still quite large.
Text | Lu Jiamin title | Zeng Yunzi Figure | Lu Wenxiang | Liao Lisi