Li Gang of the Ministry of Commerce: The factors driving the growth of foreign trade will continue to play a role, but the pulling force has declined

Beijing News (reporter Hou Runfang) Recently, at the monthly research and judgment meeting of the Primus Macro Forum hosted by the China Development Research Foundation, Li Gang, director of the Academic Committee of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the factors driving the growth of foreign trade this year will continue to play a role, but the pulling force has been declining. In addition, he also preliminarily predicted that China's foreign trade imports and exports during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will be about 3%.

Li Gang pointed out that in 2020, China's imports and exports increased by 1.9%, and the growth driven by the three major factors of pharmaceutical product exports, home economy and order return is more obvious, basically (pulling) 3 points to 4 points, driving 360 billion US dollars of exports. As a result, imports and exports contributed more to economic growth last year than in other years. "In the short term, these factors will continue to play a role this year, but the pulling force is already declining." This year's trade growth rate is still likely to be slightly higher, the trade growth rate in the first and second quarters of this year may be higher than GDP, the third and fourth quarters do not dare to say, nor dare to say how much of a pull on this year's GDP. ”

For the performance of China's foreign trade during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, one of Li Gang's preliminary predictions is that the growth rate of China's foreign trade imports and exports during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will be about 3%, which will have a certain gap with the expected GDP growth rate of the 14th Five-Year Plan. "What role will trade play in China's economic growth in the next 15 years, and how external demand will pull on China's economy, may also need to be considered." It can only be said that foreign trade, especially exports, should strive to maintain the same growth with the national economy, and this synchronous growth is basically the same direction, but we dare not say that it is the same speed, or even (dare not say) slightly higher. Li Gang said.

Beijing News shell financial reporter Hou Runfang Editor Zhao Ze Proofreader Wei Zhuo