Jia Penglei: Three wheels drive the entire e-commerce industry in the future

【Ebang Power Network News】On February 2, at the Hubei Online Business Conference, Jia Penglei, president of Ebang Power Network, attended the meeting and delivered a speech on the theme of "The Future and The Distant Place, China's E-commerce New Cycle". He proposed that the future will drive the three wheels of the entire e-commerce, one is commercially driven, one is socially driven, and the other is intelligently driven.

Jia Penglei, president of Ebang Power Network

At the same time, Jia Penglei believes that the competition for the data track makes the intelligent drive come in advance, which is a process of pulling up seedlings, but this is also the form of China's Internet, and the basic law of China's Internet is that it will not play cards according to the routine.

It is reported that the "Hubei Internet Merchants Conference" under the Hubei Internet Merchants Association is the first resource and ideological feast of hubei Internet + industry, aiming to thank the family who have contributed to the development of Hubei Internet + industry. Hubei E-commerce Conference will award various outstanding e-commerce awards to encourage E-commerce enterprises and outstanding individuals who have contributed to Hubei's Internet + industry.

The following is a transcript of the speech:

Warm reminder: This article is a shorthand preliminary review, to ensure that the original intention of the guests on the spot, uncut, or omissions, please understand.

Jia Penglei: Hello everyone, I am Jia Penglei from Ebang Power Network, I sat for an afternoon this afternoon, I have a little drama, I feel that today is not like an e-commerce meeting, it may be more like a big party, a party of online business friends in Hubei, the core of this party It may not be e-commerce, it may be that Hubei e-commerce people can get together for a meeting, communicate together, and unite around President Xu Qiang. At the same time, many friends are playing mobile phones, are sending circles of friends, grabbing red envelopes in the group, advertising, adding people, this is the norm of many parties, I can't say that this is not good, but what I want to say is that from the efficiency of communication, in fact, today everyone spends half a day here, you may have more than half a day, because you still have time on the road, in fact, your time cost is very high, I suggest that every guest can share on the top, our friends under the stage can listen attentively, even if he speaks poorly, you can know that there is such a difference, Don't talk about it in the future, for example, I will give you a wrong demonstration below, so that everyone knows that it may not be good to talk like this.

I don't know how many friends often look at Ebang Power, there are many old friends on the scene today, there are many community members of Ebang Power Network, what I share with you today is a prejudgment of a trend under e-commerce. Before I started I found two changes, but also want to share two small stories with you, we have a friend today is Zhou mi, he is the head of e-commerce in Jasper, he also came to the scene today, Jasper everyone knows that it is a condom, in 55 countries around the world it is the second place, in China is the second place, can not beat Durex, what did you do before? He was in the good shop before, he went from the good shop to make food to go to Jasper to make condoms and sex toys, the biggest change for him is that he can tell more stories than before, food is delicious, is a foodie, but condoms can tell more stories, topics are also very much, so his state is very good, more lively than before, more than before. The second change is Zhao Gang, he is the president of The Good Shop, he was previously responsible for the strategy of the Good Shop and government relations and public relations, this year he was particularly busy, that is, Boss Yang asked him to build the entire backstage and customer service system of the Good Shop. What do these two changes mean? Because they are doing retail, it shows that we have a major change in retail today, that is, how you re-establish relationships with users. In the past, we sold products as long as we sold them to users, as for what the user's feedback is, it is not so important to be unhappy, the core indicator of the enterprise is not this, the core indicator of the enterprise is the profit of sales, is that we see Alibaba a day revenue of 900 million, net profit of 750 million. But we have to see that the good shop and Jasper are making adjustments, why? Unveiling today's sharing, before sharing, you can see that there are three bottles of wine on everyone's table today, this wine is Hubei rice wine, about six degrees, the alcohol content is not high, this wine is very delicious, rice wine can be made like this, so cute, so cute, so fashionable, and then rice wine can be sold to college students, sold into bars, sold into the world of young people, which is similar to what I said today, that is, how to establish contact with users in today's market environment, traditional rice wine will not be sold like this, but it is sold.

I will share with you what is the development trend of e-commerce in the next two or three years, and in the e-commerce area, everyone pays more attention to the retail part. The future will drive the three wheels of the entire e-commerce, one is commercially driven, one is socially driven, and the other is intelligently driven. For example, Alibaba and JD.com are both commercially driven, and the fundamental reason for the rise of these two models in China is the reengineering of business itself and the upgrading of models, focusing on the change of efficiency, which is the story of reinvigorating efficiency through the Internet. In 2017, many people noticed the social drive, I remember in 2016 when everyone was saying that you can't recreate a super big platform, people who have done e-commerce know that it is unlikely, because the entire barrier is already very high, user habits are also very strong, everyone will choose Ali and JD.com. But in 2017, there was a super big platform is Pinduoduo, Pinduoduo, the company has only used more than two years of company, but the transaction volume has exceeded 100 billion, and the average monthly daily order volume has exceeded 10 million, which is very large, unimaginable and unimaginable before. And Pinduoduo's products are very similar to Taobao, Taobao has it, and it is cheaper than Taobao, which is an impossible thing that happened in 2017, that is, due to the fission of the social model, a super large platform was created.

Behind the super IP of Pinduoduo, there are also many regional social platforms, and the social platforms in some categories are doing very well, if they can develop smoothly, this road will take a long time and will produce more platforms in the social field. But unfortunately in 2017 there was a new force, that is, artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence into the aftermath, so that due to artificial intelligence caused by the commercial transformation ahead of schedule, this is a precocious thing, it was not so before the exam, so in 2017 many companies suddenly became intelligent companies, there were a lot of unmanned shelves, intelligent goods ghosts, many companies originally did data, today they say that they are doing artificial intelligence, why? Because in the future, this is another big outlet, after the emergence of this big outlet, many companies will begin to lay out in advance, with intelligent means to establish the reengineering of business models, so that today's intelligent-driven e-commerce model, such as smart containers and unmanned shelves, these two types of things belong to the intelligent drive model, it is no longer the traditional retail model.

This three-wheel drive will last a long time, the commercial drive this wheel will not be left behind, because it has a large enough volume, social drive is an explosive force, has proved itself, but it is disturbed by the intelligent drive, intelligent drive is a new wheel, this wheel is in the process of development. This judgment is basically correct, you can remember, the reason why we are basically correct is because we have predicted the future development countless times in the process of observing the development of the industry, so in the future we may set up an industrial fund, and we will carry out some industrial layout in advance. I have successfully predicted many times in the past, such as the merger of Didi and Kuaidi, such as Tmall's acquisition of some offline supermarkets, for example, many excellent service providers will definitely compete for high-quality e-commerce resources, these events are predicted by me, in fact, it is not complicated, this is a long-term observation process predicted, it is natural to predict the results.

Let's come back to the law revealed by the evolution of social e-commerce, which is actually the change of sovereignty, the left is the vertical axis is the change of business model, and the horizontal axis is the change of commercial sovereignty, that is, the change of commercial sovereignty. We look at these companies, these companies are the social e-commerce in the past three years to go through the road, in 2015 micro-business began to break out, one of the typical representatives is Han Shu, when to achieve a day sales of 100 million, on this channel on the sales of 100 million. In that era, similar to the early e-commerce, who has high-quality supply chain resources can win the world, that is, the source of goods who can win, but the early products of micro-business are very poor, there are many three no goods popular, but Han Shu is a regular brand, is a brand with a large number of sales offline, when this brand enters the micro-business channel, the dividend it obtains is very large. Secondly, There are Zan began to appear, it is a tool company, but with the micro-business to confirm their tool identity it has gone a long way, there are Zan later to determine that it is a company that empowers others, empowers others to do social company.

Then in the middle of the morning and the rice cake mom, these are two typical community companies, early is a female community, that is, members do crazy things together, together bound by common principles and outlook on life. Rice cake mother is a self-media in terms of mother and baby, and due to the long-term transmission of maternal and infant knowledge and organizational activities, it has formed its own user group, and it has done a very good job. Mother and baby is a special category, mother and baby is all the commodity categories in China in the population characteristics are relatively strong, for example, you will do men's clothing, women's clothing, children's clothing, but mother and baby have the characteristics of the crowd, many mother and baby e-commerce are living very well, such as child king, honey bud, Beibei network, mother and baby home, rice cake mother, are living very well. Why? Because the community is born to be a female thing, early and rice cake mothers are aimed at women, because women's decision-making methods are irrational, and women in Chinese society are easy to rely on people, which is the characteristic of female communities. But apart from the female community, there is no other male community, such as the entrepreneur community, the entrepreneur community is superficially established, but there is no emotional link. Pinduoduo has just talked about it, Pinduoduo is a social platform with low price as the only core, and there are many factors to consider how far it can go, and today we will not elaborate.

Yunji is a special company, this company is divided into upper body and lower body, its upper body it is to help you do commodity selection, that is to say, today when many people go to buy things, we are too lazy to choose, this time Yunji helps you make a choice. But its lower body is essentially a micro-business, essentially the former micro-business, through the establishment of a hierarchical system within the scope of the state's permission, so that countless women, especially family women and vulnerable groups of society to establish a social marketing channel, this is the gathering. Some people outside say that Yunji is a pyramid scheme, but this is not true, you may not accept why they are so crazy, in fact, its goods are very good, the price is reasonable, the service is also standardized, you just can't accept why the user is so crazy, like the MLM to pursue it, this is the Chinese crowd I talked about earlier, especially women, or family women who do not work normally, or low-income people, she is very cherished this opportunity, he is more irrational than all of us here, We need to give the gathering more time, give it a more tolerant market to see its trend.

The last one is the official website, that is, the mini program, the mini program everyone knows, Tencent has done a lot of work, the mini program is essentially to do a lighter official website, especially the brand of the company, such as the good shop and Jasper, it is a brand, but you in the past few years of e-commerce development, your online channels mainly rely on Tmall mall, Jingdong, on this platform you can sell goods very well, but can not do in-depth communication with users, you can not get full caliber data, So you must do the official website. Doing the official website does not necessarily have an impact on your current business, but makes your entire business model more complete, you have to introduce users, through the small program lighter way, through the WeChat such a super social platform to absorb users, let him participate in it, this is a kind of mini program. There is also a category of direct e-commerce, which is Tencent launched a new product this year, we have a lot of people to see today's headlines, it began to do a lot of advertising from last year, such as clothes 100 yuan to sell 4 pieces, you can open direct cash on delivery, it jumped out is not a certain APP, but an order page, and it is advocating cash on delivery, this is direct e-commerce today, what does it solve?

The first is the left end of the supply chain, if you are a small brand, you have to sell goods to clear the warehouse, but today your cost on the e-commerce platform is too high, then you can get orders and users on this platform at a very low advertising cost in today's headlines, and there are many such pages on Tencent's platform today. On the left are factories and small brand owners, and on the right side, it focuses on users who are not mature e-commerce users, but users who have not yet opened WeChat and Alipay, that is, the elderly, rural users, people who are more sensitive to price, and people who are more sensitive to the segmentation characteristics of goods. For example, Tencent Bao has recently been pushing reading glasses, two old Ha mirrors only sell 99, it is for the elderly to see, it provides a page ken ben has no WeChat pay and Alipay entrance, only cash on delivery, through the way of cash on delivery to make the elderly more acceptable, this is from the past extensive development to today's fragmented integration of the time of the stage of dividends, if you are interested in us can contact us. The third is the official website I will not talk about, if you do not have the official website today will definitely die, your official website no matter what form it is to establish. The change in this market is to say that in the past due to the stage of supply chain sovereignty has passed, and then entered the era of tool sovereignty, in the tool sovereignty, we have to know that the entire retail e-commerce industry chain is divided into three roles, brand owners, platform providers, service providers, service providers are tool providers, if there is no service provider, no tool empowerment, the entire supply chain is incomplete, but in the entire industrial environment tool providers and service providers have not received enough attention. Until this year, due to the choice between JD.com and Tmall, everyone has brought about the competition for the entrance of tools, and many tool providers and service providers with data portals have been invested, which are actually despised in the past. Finally, the rise of user sovereignty, is how the good shop can participate in the user's voice, user choice, user preferences in their own operations, the value of users in the future will be greater and greater, this is the evolution of social e-commerce shows, behind the era of user sovereignty is the small program, direct e-commerce.

What are the root causes of this change? It is the demand for data, data has never been so important and so valuable as today, in 2000, China's society was at the beginning of the information society, that era was IT was particularly prosperous in China, the Internet was just starting, the PC was just beginning to apply, and that era was doing the basic informatization of the whole society, which was a state of spending money. Replace the original artificial things with machine things, and turn those non-data things into data-based things, which is the basis of informatization, this process has lasted for more than ten years, and many industries have still not completed the basic informatization, but the vast majority of industries have completed. In that era, the tools of production were only turned into information tools, but there was no data to form the industry, I communicated with an American company in 2000, he said that the future society is a data society, I did not understand at that time, I said what is the use of data?

At that time, the United States was already doing data mining, many companies in the United States are doing such a layout, I do not understand what data can feel, today any company, whether it is an e-commerce company, he will have big data, I want to provide more value through data mining, this is the change of society. This picture wine glass represents the goods, in the stage of goods is information-based, in the stage of people is the goods people often, the stage of people is in the past few years in the development of e-commerce through people to achieve the algorithm, to achieve the user's Internet, each of us on the Internet has an ID, you have digitized the person. The last space left for us is the field, the main point of power of the Internet in the next few years is here, mainly the Internet of the scene, the Internetization of goods is relatively easy, through the single product can be Internetized, people's Internet is also relatively easy, through games, movies, videos, information, shopping, there are many links that can let people precipitate down the Internet, and finally the field, the Field of Internetization is the most difficult, but the most valuable, because the front has been completed, only it is not completed. What is a field?

For example, sharing bicycles, why so many people do shared bicycles, in fact, what he does is not sharing bicycles, what he does is the data of people's lives, he needs to data the scenes of people's lives, only the scene can continue to cycle to produce more data, and at the same time can make its data have value. Interestingly, in China's Internet environment, the shelf life of a model is now very short, what is the reason? Is the competition is too fierce, Chinese are racing, the whole people are doing the Internet, resulting in a thing that should have grown up for three years, in half a year it was scrapped, disabled, including artificial intelligence, and now some companies were originally doing basic technology research and development, today suddenly stood out, there is no way this wave forced you to stand in front, you do not stand, may be customers are robbed by others. To make a small summary, the competition for the data track makes the intelligent drive come in advance, which is a process of pulling up seedlings, but this is also the form of china's Internet, and the basic law of China's Internet is that it will not play cards according to the routine.

After looking at the previous big trend changes, how do we look at the development of the industry, we have to look at three effects. This is the new contradiction proposed by the Nineteenth National Congress, which is the contradiction between the people's growing need for a better life and the unbalanced and insufficient development, and the inadequacy of the imbalance means that the opportunity is great, because the imbalance creates opportunities, and because of inadequacy, it creates opportunities. But when we see such an opportunity, we must see these three effects, and we must look at the current situation of China's Internet in a reasonable and rational way. First look at the first what is the giant country effect, the giant country effect, if you go back to this chart, we look at it from these four dimensions, everyone is talking about the dividend of the Internet is gone, what is the dividend? Since there is a dividend of industry development and a dividend of traffic, it may be that everyone feels the dividend of traffic and the dividend of population the most. But there is a problem of inertia of thinking, China's Internet is too accustomed to relying on dividends, we rely on dividends, the Internet is an extensive and barbaric thing, it is an opportunity to seize it, that is, the previous few years of speculation, this is all dividends, you can not earn money late speculation, early speculation can earn money. What is the giant effect of the net? It is true that the traffic dividend is gone, but there are actually many more, otherwise how do you explain that alibaba and JD.com's revenue is growing every quarter?

How do you explain the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce in China in the past few years? How to explain the rapid development of Amazon Online B2B in the past year, and how to explain that Google wants to help Chinese companies do Internet finance this year? How to understand that there is a clothing brand company in China with an annual sales growth of 100%, which was 2 billion yuan in the previous year and 4 billion yuan last year. Shenzhen has a company that does charging treasure last year to do 26 billion yuan, net profit of more than 700 million, is to do charging treasure, data cable, car purifier, etc., only do European and American exports, almost no sales in the country, how do you explain these? This understanding is that these extensive dividends are gone, but you don't see the dividends of the segmentation. This figure is the stage of these four major industries and four major industries in the Internet, retail has been in the stage of intelligence and socialization, intelligence is the ultimate of the entire commercial Internet, that is, it has been playing pure fire. But in the industrial field, the Internet is still just beginning, the industrial Internet has just begun, industrial digitalization has just begun, the third is agriculture, agriculture has a lot of informatization has not been completed, the most important thing in agriculture is the upward movement of agricultural products, if you want to achieve all farmers on the Internet there is still a long time. There is also a cross-border, cross-border is far from intelligence, but cross-border is completed very early, because China's exports are too much need to shift from offline to online, we look at the GDP of 2017 China's export growth rate reached 14.2%, sweeping away the past two consecutive years of decline and multiple quarters of decline, one of the major changes is the change in business model. This is the giant country effect, that is, if others tell you that the dividend is gone, it does not mean that the real dividend is gone, there are many subdivision dividends in it.

The second effect is the upgrade effect, we take the brand, the future brand is facing several upgrades, you grab any upgrade is likely to complete your growth. The first is crowd upgrade, for example, take a fresh boss, he is doing a brand of product upgrades, but you have to see if your crowd has been upgraded, the crowd you used to face, the crowd you used to be facing, whether the crowd you used to compete for and the crowd you were facing are consistent, whether you have caught the crowd that can be upgraded? The second is the upgrading of the industrial chain, and whether the upstream and downstream of the industry you are in have achieved upgrading. The third is the expression upgrade, for example, this bottle of wine is an expression upgrade, the same rice wine but it is not made into a traditional form, but it is very fashionable, the target is a young brand like Rio, which is an upgrade of expression. The fourth is the channel upgrade, the channel upgrade I will not talk about, for example, a fresh channel is Tmall and Jingdong, no problem, but you did not upgrade, because there are too many new channels, if you write is to gather these new channels, then your dividend is more than others, this is an upgrade. There are many connotations of upgrading it, I will not elaborate on the time relationship, you can think for yourself, the industry you are in, where the categories you do are upgrading, whether you have found the opportunity to upgrade.

The third is the new normal effect, which refers to the fact that the industry has said goodbye to di si, but also bid farewell to barbaric growth, and today if a di si also says that I want to start a business successfully, such a chance is almost zero.

Finally, to share a methodology with you, in the process of starting a business, or in the process of doing e-commerce, we are more likely to look at two points, one point is what your goal is, for example, take the good shop, he will look at the results, how much sales I want to achieve in 2020, how much I want to do in the IPO, and then the future is to push back from the results to see what talent and technical preparation you should do. The other is to see what opportunities the industry has, to look at the source, for example, we look at what pain points the gift industry has, we kill to make a new thing. But in today's Internet entrepreneurship process, I remind everyone to pay attention to the middle of this part, is the process, this figure is in December Ebang Power in the future retail conference roundtable discussion when I temporarily drew a picture, I spent a lot of time to see a lot of company sharing and speech, and finally found that today and the previous difference is to say that we have to pay more attention to the process, when we see and participate in an industry, the difference between it and the past is that it has a special number of variables and parameters, You must pay attention to it, that is, to fight at any time, to grasp the fighter at any time, this fighter may change the industry you are in, you may not be ahead at the source, your results may not be too good, but if your fighter grasps well, today you may become a great company, seize an opportunity for innovation.

Today's time relationship I will not expand on the talk, I hope that through this way for everyone to show some of the basic rules of China's e-commerce in the next three years, for your reference only, thank you! Thank you very much for participating in the Hubei Online Business Conference, thank you Chairman Xu for the invitation, thank you!

This article is from Ebang Power Network, the entrepreneurial department authorized to publish, slightly edited and modified, the copyright belongs to the author, the content only represents the author's independent views. [ Download the Entrepreneur APP to read about China's 7,000 most profitable businesses ]