Zhao Jian, head of the new energy team of Huitianfu: Shouzheng is surprising, and strives for balance and #热点复盘 in high-volatility industries #

"Fish in the pool". Looking back at every major industrial change in human society, it is an opportunity for the capital market to nurture investment opportunities at the "outlet" level. From the transformation of retail channels, to the advent of PCs, the innovation of smart phones, and the popularization of mobile Internet technology, a number of enterprises with a market value of hundreds of billions of dollars have come into being.

In recent years, the whole market has been "the most beautiful boy", "carbon neutrality" can be described as unyielding. Under the dual resonance of the global energy revolution and the century-old automotive industry revolution, "carbon neutrality" is even regarded as the theme of the times with a high global consensus.

New energy wind rises, in the research emphasizes "in-depth", "forward-looking" and "timeliness" hui tianfu fund, in the relevant field of the layout is also "one step ahead". Zhao Jian, equity fund manager of Huitianfu environmental protection industry, has been deeply involved in the new energy industry for more than ten years, and the new energy team of Huitianfu, which he is the person in charge, has been equipped with 6 researchers, including Liu Sheng, Bian Zheng and many other senior investment and research personnel covering the industry for more than five years.

For the vertical integration of Hui Tianfu investment research structure, the circle is not unfamiliar, consumer, pharmaceutical, TMT three star teams, as well as in these teams gradually grow into hui tianfu leader Hu Xinwei, Liu Jiang, Yang Yan and other fund managers, is also well known to the market; last year, Hui Tianfu from a strategic point of view of the new energy independent of a team, and continue to invest in enrichment staffing, and strive to create "the industry's hardest head", the company's emphasis on this track can be seen.

Senior "industry experts": strive for balance under high volatility

For the group of fund managers, "Xueba" is only the bottom match, and Zhao Jian is no exception: Tsinghua University Bachelor of Engineering, Tsinghua University Master of Engineering, previously worked at McKinsey Consulting (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., joined Hui Tianfu Fund in September 2009, successively served as industry analyst, senior industry analyst, head of the manufacturing cycle team of Hui Tianfu Investment Research Department, and currently the head of the new energy team and fund manager of Hui Tianfu Investment Research Department.

Zhao Jian has long been deeply engaged in high-end manufacturing-related industries, based on the experience of the world's top consulting companies, has a deep insight into the industry pattern and trends, has a solid basic skill in industry and company research, has a broad vision and forward-looking, and has excellent performance, which is a distinctive brand on Zhao Jian.

In fact, the new energy industry has gone through many rounds of ups and downs and cycles, the biggest feature is that the fluctuations are large, there are even many operational risks, and the industrial chain is complex, as one of the few fund managers in the market who has more than 10 years of research accumulation in the new energy industry, Zhao Jian has witnessed the rise and fall of many enterprises, and only by seeing enough can we know which types of enterprises have the opportunity to survive for a long time.

Since Zhao Jian took over the Huitianfu Environmental Protection Industry Fund in May 2020, he has invested 80% of the fund's assets in high-quality companies in various sub-sectors of the new energy industry.

As of July 31, 2021, after 1 year and 2 months of Zhao Jian's management, Hui Tianfu Environmental Protection Industry Fund had a product return of 134.98%, doubling its performance to 134.98% (80.74% of the benchmark for the same period), and its performance in the past year also ranked 22nd among 419 similar funds, ranking in the 1/10th thile (net value increase of 84.82%, performance benchmark of 54.11% in the same period).

The short operating time of China's funds cannot reflect all stages of the development of the stock market. Zhao Jian began to manage Huitianfu environmental protection industry stocks on May 20, 2020. The performance has been reviewed by the custodian bank, the benchmark data is from HuiTianfu, the ranking data is from Haitong Securities, as of 2021/7/31, the same kind refers to the active stock open fund, and the similar ranking in the past 1 year (2020/8/1-2021/7/31) is 22/419, as detailed in the Haitong Securities Fund Evaluation System.

Zhao Jian's positioning for himself is to achieve relative balance under a high-volatility industry configuration, and try to avoid the investment strategy of opening and closing and bias injection. "If, in a certain period, you find that all the stocks in your portfolio are going up, you should actually be worried, because it means that the next period of time it may be that all the stocks are going down." This is also the profound experience that Zhao Jian has had to manage the special account for more than three years and aim at absolute income orientation.

"I hope to achieve a combination of different risk-reward characteristics in the portfolio, that is, the correlation between the beta coefficients between individual stocks is relatively low, so that the balance can make the volatility of the portfolio relatively small." How to choose stocks, I mainly look at three dimensions, the most important is the company's texture, followed by trends, and the third is valuation. Zhao Jian said.

Looking at the environmental protection fund managed by Zhao Jian in the second quarter, it is biased towards the leader in the subdivision of the new energy and photovoltaic industries, reflecting Zhao Jian's values, that is, the heavy position of high-quality companies.

High-quality "golden team": refined division of labor, international vision, professional echelon

If we summarize the major characteristics of Huitianfu new energy team, we can summarize it with a fine industrial chain division of labor, a broad international vision, and a stable professional echelon.

Specifically, Huitianfu new energy group to the industrial chain as the division of labor to achieve mutual complement, whether it is the new energy vehicle industry chain and the photovoltaic industry chain, all reflect the characteristics of the long industrial chain, upstream and downstream mutual influence, etc., the new energy team will be upstream, midstream, downstream to different members of the team to study, while strengthening discussion, mutual complement, and strive to achieve full coverage of the industrial chain to the greatest extent. For example, Bian Zheng graduated from Tsinghua University with a composite background in electrical engineering and management, responsible for the research of new energy vehicles and power batteries; Liu Sheng is a doctor of electrical engineering from Zhejiang University, responsible for the research of photovoltaic industry chain; Zheng Lei graduated from Peking University, majoring in computer technology, responsible for midstream battery materials and upstream resource research.

The second is an international perspective. Like the consumer, pharmaceutical, and TMT teams, the new energy team has expanded its vision to the world while basing itself on the local market, conducting research coverage in the United States, Europe, Hong Kong and other markets, and having a more global vision of the industrial chain. For example, the team carefully studied the leading new energy automobile companies listed in the United States, and gained a deeper understanding of the intelligent electrification transformation of the automotive industry and the changes in profit models.

Finally, the construction of a professional echelon, the current 7 core members of the team all have engineering backgrounds, from Tsinghua, Peking University, Zhejiang University and other universities, and the formation of the old middle and young three generations of researchers to help the mechanism, so that the team continues to accumulate. Hui Tianfu has a strong sharing culture, under the vertically integrated investment and research framework, team members share highly, learn from each other's strengths, and maximize the research efficiency. It is understood that Hui Tianfu pays attention to internal training, and will recruit outstanding graduates from top universities every year, and in the latest batch of "fresh blood" of investment research, the number of new energy teams is the largest.

Clear "theme of the times": carbon neutrality, the opportunity has only just begun

In addition to the team, the product is an important starting point for Huitianfu to lay out investment in the field of new energy.

The market-famous Huitianfu CSI New Energy Vehicle Index Fund, that is, it is customized by Huitianfu to the index company, and the new energy team will graft the active management ability into the product, and every six months, the new energy team will give the index adjustment suggestion, on the one hand, it will be included in the new listing target in real time, on the other hand, it will be adjusted according to the prosperity of all aspects of the current industrial chain; in addition, there are two active equity products - Huitianfu Environmental Protection Industry Fund and Huitianfu Intelligent Manufacturing Fund, which also absorb the research results of the new energy group. In recent years, the performance has been remarkable.

From August 30, hui tianfu carbon neutral theme hybrid fund will be issued soon, and the layout puzzle of hui tianfu in the field of new energy will be more complete, and the proposed fund manager of this fund is Zhao Jian. In his view, the world is ushering in a major industrial revolution once in a century, and "carbon neutrality" is the theme of the times with a high global consensus.

In 2020, countries have successively clarified the goal of carbon neutrality, and countries have continuously increased their support for photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other industries, forming a global policy resonance, which has greatly promoted the accelerated development of photovoltaic and new energy vehicles.

From the perspective of the photovoltaic industry, as the main force of the energy revolution, it will usher in 8 times the growth space in 10 years. According to estimates, the global installed capacity in 2020 is 120GW, and it is expected that by 2030, the new installed capacity will reach more than 1000+GW, which is about 8 times that of 2020, and the annual average growth rate is 24%.

Chinese photovoltaic companies have 70% of the global market share, the future will be further improved, a larger cake superimposed more shares, which means that in the future, China's photovoltaic industry in the market growth, share increase under the double double, is expected to come out of a number of world-class large companies.

In the field of new energy vehicles, it is a golden track that is 17 times that of 10 years, and the scale of the automobile electrification market is expected to reach 2 trillion US dollars in 2030, which is 5 times the size of the smartphone market. If you consider the automotive intelligent market, the size of this market will be even more amazing. Volkswagen Group's latest estimate: in 2030, the market size of vehicle electrification and intelligence will exceed 5 trillion euros.

More importantly, for Chinese enterprises, this is also the first time to stand at the top of the industrial chain of important industries in the world and master the core links of the industrial chain. Under the background of the huge market space of the industry, China's outstanding new energy vehicle companies will give birth to a number of world-class companies, which are expected to become the big winners of the global new energy automobile industry.

In the face of such a huge industrial space, investment opportunities may only be just beginning.

The following is a transcript:

Q: Do you have any comments on the investment framework?

Zhao Jian: Our company has a label in the industry, which is also our positioning, called "stock selection expert". I think the investment framework is actually to answer two questions, one is the method and strategy of stock selection, and the second is the whole portfolio construction strategy.

I hope that the products I manage, whether it is the theme fund or the whole market fund, can finally do a good job of industry balance, in fact, it is also the balance of risk-return characteristics.

The combination of different risk-reward characteristics in the portfolio is expected to be achieved, that is, the correlation between the beta coefficients between individual stocks is relatively low, so that the volatility of the portfolio can be relatively small.

How to choose stocks, I mainly look at three dimensions, the most important is the company's texture, followed by trends, and the third is valuation.

"Texture" I will evaluate from three perspectives: the first is the industry characteristics and competitive pattern of the industry in which the company is located; the second is the company's business model and competitive advantage; and the third is corporate governance and entrepreneurship. I'll have a quantitative rating to determine the texture of the company.

I am particularly biased against those, especially like the current market interpretation to this stage, the stock has spread very dispersed, the previous five or six lines of stocks, as long as the point of the edge of the start to rise, I am still more cautious in my heart. I think stock selection should be from a medium to long-term point of view, the main position can not touch those things.

"Trends" include industry trends and company operating trends, which, when the two form a positive resonance, give the stock a higher position. Of course, everything is cyclical, under the premise of good quality in the combination, the position given by the company with a relatively good business cycle is a little higher, and the relative counter-cyclical is a low position, maintaining a tracking and configuration, so as to adjust.

"Valuation" is a factor that I have relatively downplayed, and valuation will focus on observation in my entire investment framework, but the tolerance will be higher. In essence, it is still related to the growth space of the industry, the growth stage, and the operating state of the main company. If many companies are in the early stages of life cycle growth, it is normal for you to be expensive at this time, just like when we looked at the rise of consumer electronics.

Q: How has the corporate culture of Hui Tianfu influenced the formation of your own investment and research framework?

Zhao Jian: We Zhang is always a fund manager, very good at investment, the earliest management of funds, management of social security, are doing very well in the same period, our company's investment research team is trained by the leadership, with a more consistent investment philosophy and framework.

On the whole, our portfolio construction principle is that even if it is an industry fund, but also to achieve relative balance, the implementation of dynamic adjustment of individual stocks, as a whole, is a more rational, more stable investment ideas, try to avoid large opening, avoid partial pressure injection, some rely on this operation may also be successful, there is nothing wrong with it, but in our investment framework, it is still necessary to be moderately balanced and as stable as possible.

Why is the industry relatively balanced? Because the market is rhythmic. There will be differences in different sectors in the industry fund, but the overall performance is still a common beta. People often joke, "If you find that all the stocks in your portfolio are going up in a certain period of time, you should actually worry, because it means that the next period of time may be all the stocks going down." 」 ”  The construction of the combination is best to have an echelon, so that the overall combination of drawdown will be relatively well controlled, which is also my experience in the industry for so many years, including the previous special account, there are absolute return requirements, and there is a deeper understanding of the control drawdown.

Q: Seeing that your turnover rate is very low, is the low turnover rate a feature that will always be maintained in the future?

Zhao Jian: It has something to do with people's trading habits, I was very cautious when I adjusted my position last year, because I thought about it a lot.

In the past, when doing special accounts, in fact, often faced with large top-down choices, even in the market period of 19/20 years, there were several large fluctuations, such as 20 years after May Day, some overseas policy disturbances, including adjustments like this year's Spring Festival, the target product of absolute returns is very large.

I myself am not very willing to buy and sell back and forth on the stocks that I am optimistic about, I do not take the money to make transactions as the most important goal, and the winning rate of 50% in the back and forth operation is already good, so it is better not to move, because the last real money must be that the company continues to make new highs in the fluctuations, in order to make a lot of money. The other is also to avoid trading attrition. Core assets are really not moving, and then there are a number of small companies that may make some adjustments appropriately, which is the main reason for my overall low turnover rate.

And this has something to do with people's personality, I think if a thing is good, it must be able to endure and be single-minded. Statistics from financial engineering should be long-term back and forth transactions, which should be lossy, for fund managers and for the basics.

Q: What are the advantages of the Huitianfu New Energy team?

Zhao Jian: I joined HuiTianfu in 2009, starting from research, has been covering new energy and other fields, and now more than 11 years, has experienced multiple rounds of industry cycles, so I have a relatively deeper understanding of the fluctuations of the industry and the opportunities in the industry; in addition, in the 5 years of investment practice, I first do absolute returns, and now do relative returns, and have a relatively deep understanding of the balance of returns and risks.

In terms of team, our company adopts a vertically integrated investment research structure, and in addition to managing the fund, I also serve as the head of the new energy research team. Our team now has a total of 7 members, all of whom are from engineering backgrounds, solid and profound professional backgrounds, old, middle-aged and young people, perfect talent echelon construction, head-up attaches great importance to discussion and mutual complement, emphasizes in-depth research on the industry, ensures the in-depth, forward-looking, timeliness and originality of research, and tries not to miss important opportunities.

In addition, our team not only covers domestic and Hong Kong-listed companies, but also has in-depth coverage of important companies in the industrial chain listed in the United States and other places, and unlisted potential companies, and hopes to discover potential investment opportunities in the industry through detailed industrial chain research.

Q: Standing at the current point in time, how do you view the valuation problem of the new energy industry? Will the subsequent product opening worry about opening a position at a high point?

Zhao Jian: Now from the secondary market performance is a relatively large stage of volatility, in the medium and long term we have also repeatedly discussed internally, the general direction is optimistic is unchanged. In the short term, because stocks have risen too much, it is human nature to fear highs, and anyone will have this mentality.

At present, the static valuation is indeed relatively not cheap, which is also an objective, so everyone is controversial, and it may also be shown in the short term that the volatility of the plate will increase.

Our team has done a lot of research, more certain is to say that the long-term trend of the industry: the photovoltaic industry, whether from the supply level or the demand level, is in a relatively good stage of explosive growth; new energy vehicles, this piece, is definitely a subversive change to the global super large consumer goods market, global sales in the next decade the growth probability is explosive; energy storage, according to Soochow Securities "  The report of the "Medium-term Strategy for the New Electricity Industry in 21 Years" predicts that the global new energy storage capacity will reach 9.72 GWh in 2020, 196 GWh in 2025, and 900 GWh in 2030. Above, the scale has increased by 94 times in 10 years. So we are still more confident about the future.

During this time, everyone in the institutional roadshow was often asked the same question, "How do you think it is so expensive?" ”  I am now mentally prepared, perhaps the short-term market stage fluctuations will inevitably appear, but if you really do medium- and long-term investment from the perspective of industrial development, it is indeed an ideal investment window now.

Q: What is the most satisfactory investment so far?

Zhao Jian: There is a new energy company that went to talk to the boss when the company was just listed, and at that time the company only had a few hundred million yuan in revenue, but it was already impressed by the boss's strategic planning.

The boss is very capable and a very remarkable entrepreneur. His strategic plans over the years have been realized. This company belongs to the medium and long term special rest assured, the company's management team is very good, these years the industry really good opportunities to come, to achieve import substitution, the boss turned a lot of dangers into opportunities in the past, this year the company showed a characteristic, that is, with the macroeconomic changes in the correlation is weakening, there are two main reasons, one is to achieve import substitution, the second is that the company is better, the main downstream is emerging industries, rather than traditional industries.

Another advantage of this stock is that its relationship with the beta of new energy is relatively weak, and it will not rise and fall so obviously.

In a sense, the pattern of private enterprises is the pattern of the boss, and how much the boss can have and ability can bring the enterprise to what height. The kind of boss with a pattern is all about how to make China's industry bigger, grab the share of foreign capital, how to make technology top-notch, how to make representative and subversive products, and how to improve the company's organizational structure.

We have learned a lot from this company in the past.

Risk Warning: The fund is risky and the investment needs to be cautious. This material is promotional material only and is not intended as any legal document. The short operating time of China's funds cannot reflect all stages of the development of the stock market. The fund manager undertakes to manage and use the assets of the fund in good faith, diligence and due diligence, but does not guarantee that the fund will be profitable or guarantee a minimum return. Past performance of the Fund is not indicative of future performance and the performance of the Manager's other funds and the past performance of its investment personnel are not indicative of its future performance. Investors should carefully read legal documents such as the Fund Contract, The Prospectus and the Product Information Summary to learn more about the product information. Any securities research reports or comments covered in this promotional material may not be forwarded in any form without the prior written permission of the publisher. The views or opinions of the relevant research reports are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice or advice, or any express or implied guarantee or commitment, and the reader should read or refer to the relevant views and opinions carefully. Hui Tianfu Carbon Neutral Hybrid (hereinafter referred to as "the Fund") may invest in Hong Kong Stock Connect, of which the proportion of investment in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks shall not exceed 50% of the equity assets. The Fund's investment scope includes Hong Kong stocks and will face unique risks due to differences in investment environment, investment targets, market systems and trading rules. Huitianfu Carbon Neutral Theme Hybrid Fund is a medium risk level (R3) product, suitable for investors who have achieved balanced (C3) and above after customer risk tolerance level assessment, and the customer-product risk level matching rules are detailed on the official website of Huitianfu. When the consignment agency subscribes, the risk rating rules of the consignment agency shall prevail. This product is issued and managed by Hui Tianfu Fund Management Co., Ltd., and the distributor does not assume the responsibility for investment, redemption and risk management of the product. The specific release time is subject to the announcement. Zhao Jian began to manage Hui Tianfu environmental protection industry stocks from 2020/5/20, and the annual performance and benchmark performance of 2016-2020 were 9.00%/-13.00%, 4.34%/-0.71%, -36.70%/-31.22%, 23.49%/17.05%, 95.29%/42.89%, and the results and benchmark performance of the first half of 2021 were 20.96%/18.91%, respectively, and the data came from the annual reports of the fund. Second quarter 2021, as of 2021/6/30.

(CIS)

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