Introduction: On August 30, 2021, Wang Huiyao, chairman of the Globalization Think Tank (CCG), and Neil Bush, the third son of former US President George H.W. Bush and founder and chairman of the George Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, held a dialogue on the prospects of Sino-US economic and trade cooperation, Sino-US people-to-people exchanges, virus traceability, anti-epidemic and public health cooperation. This article is based on the transcript of the dialogue, with deletions and changes, and has not been approved by myself.
Wang Huiyao, chairman of the Globalization Think Tank (CCG), had a conversation with Neil Bush, the third son of former US President George H.W. Bush and founder and chairman of the George Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. Image source: CCG
There is no single system in the world that applies to every country
Wang Huiyao: Good morning, good evening. I am Wang Huiyao, founder and chairman of the Globalization Think Tank (CCG). Welcome to the 12th installment of the CCG Global Dialogue Series.
Neil, I remember you saying that your first visit to China was in 1975, and you've been visiting China regularly ever since. Given that you have visited China many times and have witnessed first-hand how China has developed over the past 50 years and the tremendous changes that have taken place in China, perhaps you can make some assessment of what you have seen in the U.S.-China relationship.
Neil Bush: I would like to recall that in October 1971 China resumed voting on its rightful seats in the United Nations. I happened to be in New York at the time, when my father tirelessly promoted the concept of "two Chinas," which was the position of the U.S. government at the time. The end result, however, was that they were voted down, China recognized, and Taiwan kicked out. The first thing my father did after the Chinese delegation came to the United States was to invite them to my grandmother's house in Connecticut for lunch to show American hospitality and welcome them with open arms, which I was there.
Since then, he has had his first real contact with Chinese leaders. My father had feelings for Chinese people and had high expectations of how our two great nations should work together.
In 1975, my three siblings and I visited China for five weeks. We stayed in Beijing for four weeks and then took the train with my mother to Wuxi, Nanjing and Shanghai. Being able to witness this incredible growth that China has experienced over the past 46 years as a bystander is remarkable. I don't want to offend anyone, but the China I saw in 1975 basically didn't have much freedom. Everyone is equal, and they are equally poor. During the Cultural Revolution, many people were unable to make choices freely, which is obviously unimaginable today.
So, looking back 46 years later, if I go back to 1975, I can't predict or imagine that hundreds of millions of people in China will be lifted out of poverty, the middle class will grow as fast as it is now, and economic development will continue to create new jobs, create wealth for people, and people will be able to enjoy everyday freedom. Frankly, these were obviously unimaginable in China at that time, which left a deep impression on me.
I think one of the things that sets me apart from other colleagues is that I've visited China on the ground and seen china grow over the years. I have come to some profound conclusions: there is no single system that applies to every country, every country needs to develop a system that suits the conditions of that country, and China's system is effective for China. If you look at the achievements of the 46 years since I visited China and the more than four decades since the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the conclusion is self-evident. I believe that the American system works for the United States, and the Chinese system works for China, and we need to respect that. I've always been amazed to see this change in China, and no one could have predicted all this 46 years ago.
Wang Huiyao: Do you remember some of the things you saw in Beijing back then? I remember your father riding a bicycle in Tiananmen Square, what were you doing when you and your father first arrived?
Neil Bush: We had the same experience. We rode everywhere on our bikes and it was really fun. We cycled to Tiananmen Square. I distinctly remember parking my car in front of a stop sign where the traffic police were holding their hands up and many bikes stopped there and gathered together. When they saw us long-nosed white men from the United States, almost falling off our bikes.
We also went to the zoo to see pandas and other animals. There were a lot of people following us, more than anyone watching the animals, and we thought of the experience as a friendly adventure.
One of the things I also observed, and my dad and I talked about on that trip, is that if you look at Chinese consumers walking through a bike shop, a store that sells kitchen utensils or something, you can see in their eyes that they want more, they want a better Pigeon bike or something. Chinese also have ambitions and aspirations, and it is this ambition and desire for a better life that has led to the incredible growth and realization of the current potential.
I still remember the scene vividly, and now that I'm back in China, cars are everywhere. China has undergone earth-shaking changes, a truly shocking one. High-speed rail and the internet are everywhere, which I couldn't have imagined in the 1970s when I was riding a bicycle in China.
In 1974, the Bush family was in Beijing. Source: Infographic
Wang Huiyao: Under the development of more than 40 years, we have indeed seen China develop from a bicycle kingdom to an automobile kingdom, and China is currently the world's largest automobile market.
Neil Bush: And the high-speed train that I mentioned. Other developed and developing countries in the world have not been able to keep up with China in terms of deploying high-speed rail. I have taken the highly efficient high-speed trains many times, and they are quiet, fast and clean. China is enjoying a leap in capabilities that really sets it apart in many ways. Yes, it has gone from being the capital of bicycles to the world's capital of automobile consumption, and now it is also booming in the field of high-speed rail.
Conflicts need to be resolved in a mature manner between States and values expressed in a respectful manner
Wang Huiyao: In the past few years, especially since Republican President Trump came to power, we have seen a lot of sino-US relations deteriorate. With us now in a constant downward trend, how can we really improve Sino-US relations and return to normalcy?
Neil Bush: First of all, you mentioned the deterioration of relations between the two countries, and I think there are some similar factors that have led to the fear of the rise of China in the United States, which is reflected in the increasingly harsh rhetoric of the Trump administration, followed by an isolationist approach of backing back and refusing to talk.
My father's core idea was that countries, families, and friends all needed to be in touch with each other in order to get to know each other better and put themselves in each other's shoes. That way, when conflicts arise, you can resolve them in a mature way. We've gone against that for the past five years, and maybe even before that.
Add to that america's "America First, Build a Wall," anti-immigrant, and "We're the Greatest Nation on Earth" problem ideas, and see China's economy rise now on par with or second only to the U.S. economy. You know a lot of politicians are afraid of losing our lead in this way.
Then the third factor is that in the american environment, we have no information to understand China, so politically China has become a vulnerable target.
With the rise of China, how will the United States, as an important power in the world, react to this rising power? Many people in our country and many politicians reacted poorly to this, seeing China as an existential threat to our economy and national security. We're going to have problems with China, but we're going to solve them.
We have values that we strongly support. We will try to express these values in a respectful manner, not in a way that accuses or demeans them. But we express our values and hope we can help shape the outcome of this sort of thing. But the ultimate goal should be to come together as many different ways as possible and solve challenges in a respectful and mature way.
Raising tariffs is a very silly idea, and it's a tax on U.S. consumers that hurts U.S. businesses. The idea behind Trump and his people is that if we have a trade deficit with a country, we have to fix it by raising tariffs and balancing trade. But the reality is that in global trade, some countries have good quality goods that are available at lower costs, and richer countries want to buy them, while poorer countries and developing countries cannot afford to buy them. So there will be a trade imbalance, which is no problem. There is nothing in the economic foundations that says that trade imbalances are unnatural, inappropriate, or bad. So this is first and foremost a stupid argument.
Deep down, this logic might be to punish Chinese in an attempt to turn China's economy back. But this is also illogical. So this is a failed policy that needs to be reversed.
Wang Huiyao: In the past five or six years, there seems to be more misunderstanding between China and the United States. But unfortunately, the whole world is facing a huge challenge. We've been in the middle of an outbreak for a long time, and now there's a new variant of COVID-19, and it's really cutting us off, at least when it comes to travel. Now we see that according to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, nearly 85,000 student visas have been issued in the past three months (from May to July), and there is a long queue at Pudong International Airport – students are returning to the United States. However, American students still cannot come to China.
So where do you think we should really cooperate? How can we really get the U.S. and China focused on fighting the pandemic instead of blaming each other?
Neil Bush: That's a good question, and that's one that I'm asking, about some of the major issues that affect the sustainability of human life on Earth, including climate change, food insecurity, everything related to health. The pandemic is the most obvious and urgent matter, but we still have a variety of natural disasters due to climate change. How can we learn to change the course of climate change so that the planet can continue to evolve on its current trajectory?
These are big issues, and it's clear that the two largest economies in the world have to cooperate. In fact, it is hard to imagine that these problems can be solved without the cooperation of China and the United States, and we obviously all need to solve them together from a human perspective.
I understand your frustration with those accusations, especially at the beginning of the outbreak, when we had a message from the White House that the virus was just going to stay here for a while, we only had 13 cases, and they were all going to disappear... We're going to have a mask order, but I'm not going to wear a mask... Everyone should be vaccinated... But without a real push, there was a huge anti-vaccine movement in the United States.
We don't have national pride or national motivation to fight the pandemic, and we as a nation can do that. But we should learn from each other, and we should be open-minded and look at what New Zealand has done, what Australia has done, what China has done, and what other countries have done. We should share the best technologies for existing vaccine development and have manufacturers around the world translate their production into the production of qualified vaccines so that the global population can be more easily vaccinated and prevent the spread of outbreaks through various variants. All of these things require an environment of cooperation, which, sadly, does not exist today. I believe that things will change over time.
Wang Huiyao: Yes, China and the United States have a lot of common interests, and there are many things that we can work together. But China's GDP is growing steadily now, and perhaps surpassing the United States in the future. How can we now accept each other and live in peace? I remember you said before that the US system is suitable for the US national conditions, and the Chinese system is suitable for China's national conditions. We shouldn't try to change each other, we should understand each other more, how can we do that?
Neil Bush: Let me give you an example, the Afghan problem came up under my brother George W. Bush, and it was related to him and his wife. My sister-in-law Laura has a very strong feeling about the rights of women and children, who are highly concerned today. In Afghanistan in 1996, the Taliban regained control. It seems to me that for the civilized nations of the world that are concerned about the rights of these women and children, it may seem as if they have been thrown back into the Dark Ages or the Stone Age. By changing local leadership, civilized nations will be inspired to work together, to remain there to maintain stability.
Now, the American people are a little tired of being saviors and protectors, allies of those countries, but not so-called giant pillars. When the American people elected Biden, he promised to withdraw troops, and President Trump also made a commitment to withdraw troops. A better strategy would be to let us find our common humanity from countries around the world and work together. It may be idealistic and naïve not to build a nation, but to be the protector of these fundamental human rights, but I do believe that we will achieve that goal. The world is becoming so connected that everything is much more transparent than in the past, so where there is a mistake that needs to be corrected, we need to work together to correct it.
And, on issues that are very controversial today, like the treatment of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, I just want China to be very open and transparent, to tell the world what's going on there, and to let people know the truth so that the world can settle down. At the same time, I am fully in favour of the United States expressing our values, where there are human rights challenges, to present our views to address human rights-related issues that also relate to Afghanistan today and the rest of the world.
I think I want to reiterate that my father often said publicly that the bilateral relationship between the United States and China is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. He said this phrase years ago with foresight because it is now more real than ever. Given the magnitude of the problems we face as human beings on Earth, I would also like to say that globalization has given the American economy an opportunity. The huge driver of our GDP and personal wealth, and our biggest partner in a globalized world, has always been China. So the United States has been a beneficiary of trade, and this trade relationship has benefited our country a lot. There is no doubt that China is also a huge beneficiary of our trade relations, and as we have more and more cultural exchanges and student exchanges, millions of Chinese tourists have come to the United States.
The reality is that we have benefited greatly from this bilateral relationship. We should expect a way to predict the future, and the future will be better. We have entered this era of madness, when China's rise was suddenly seen by politicians as a threat to the United States. Once we are able to overcome the obstacle that China does not represent a threat to our national security or our economy or our freedom or basic way of life, dialogue will build better understanding and more cooperation.
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