This week, the market continued to show a trend of adjustment. Although there was a rush higher on Monday, it was still suppressed on the same day. After that, the market fell all the way, and the gap of 3041 was covered on Tuesday. On Thursday, there was another trend of rising and falling, and the broader market continued to fall on Friday. At present, the market is still in the adjustment as I said last week, and even if it grabs the rebound, it must be fast in and out.
The trend of the GEM is a little weaker this week. On Monday, it opened lower and went lower, directly filling last week's gap of 1822 points. Although there was a rebound after that, it still fell overall, and it has hit a new low in this round of decline on Friday. This week's hot spots are mainly focused on precious metals, gold concepts and construction machinery. Because the tourism sector is close to the May Day holiday, it will gradually become a hot spot. And things like flying cars, new energy batteries, etc. are short-lived.
What's new:
China's capital market ushered in the third "National Nine Measures"
The State Council recently issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market". The opinions issued this time have a total of 9 parts, which is the third "national nine articles" in the capital market. According to reports, the opinions issued by the State Council thoroughly implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions on the capital market, and implement the deployment of the Central Financial Work Conference, which is a guiding document for the capital market issued by the State Council again after the two "National Nine Articles" in 2004 and 2014. Note: The first two "National Nine Articles" have caused a wave of market surges. Judging from the current reaction of the market, everyone thinks that it may not be this time. I think the market may not have much impact in the short term, but it may not attract the attention of the market in the medium term, so the medium term should be cautiously bearish.
The Ministry of Commerce and 14 other departments issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods"
The "Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods" issued by 14 departments including the Ministry of Commerce was released on April 12. Driven by the improvement of technology, energy consumption, emissions and other standards, with policies as incentives, driven by smooth circulation, and on the basis of fully respecting the wishes of consumers, we will gradually establish an effective mechanism of "it is easier to remove the old and more willing to replace the new", and encourage the replacement and use of intelligent, green and low-carbon consumer goods. Note: The trade-in issued by the Ministry of Commerce is the specific action of the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods" issued by the State Council a few days ago, and it is necessary to attach great importance to the plan issued by the State Council.
Weekly review:
This week, the main board opened at 3057 points, the highest was 3077 points, the lowest was 3009 points, and the closing price was 3019 points. It fell by 49 points, or 1.62%. The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 9,512 points, with a high of 9,525 points, a low of 9,212 points, and a close of 9,228 points. It fell by 316 points, or 3.32%. GEM opened at 1,834 points, with a high of 1,840 points, a low of 1,760 points, and a close of 1,762 points. It fell by 77 points, or 4.21%. Among the three major indexes, the Innovation Index fell the most, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 continued to fall this week.
Technical analysis of the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange:
The broader market continued to show a downward trend this week. The post-holiday adjustment trend has not changed, and the market returned to around 3,000 points again on Friday. The 5-day moving average has now turned downwards and is deadly forking the 10-day, 20-day and 30-day moving averages. The 10-day and 30-day EMAs are still going up, and the 20-day EMAs have turned down. Looking at 3050 points on the 60-minute line will become the focus of long-short competition, and the short-term focus is on the gains and losses of the 5-day moving average. If the market returns to less than the 5-day moving average at the beginning of next week, then it is a high probability event for the market to break the previous low of 2984. From a purely technical point of view, there was a dead fork on the third line of the Japanese KDJ and diverged downward. However, the J-value has not yet entered the oversold territory, so the correction is not over yet. The daily MACD fast and slow lines have been sticking last week, and the green column pile has also shrunk. However, this week, as the market continued to pull back, there was no golden cross on the daily MACD fast and slow line. The fast line turned down again and the opening of the slow line increased, and the green column pile was re-amplified, which indicated that the market should hit a new low in the future, that is to say, it should not be a problem to break 2984 points, so the operation of the market outlook needs to be cautious.
Looking at the weekly line again, the market pulled out a small black candle this week and closed below the 5-week moving average. At present, the 5-week moving average is starting to turn downward, and the 10-week moving average has support for the broader market. At present, the 10-week moving average is still going up, and the J value of the weekly KDJ has fallen out of the strong area this week, and the K value and the D value are sticky to each other, and there is a possibility of a dead fork next week. The opening between the weekly MACD fast U-turn and the slow line has narrowed, and the red column pile has shortened.
GEM Technical Analysis:
This week, the GEM has also stepped out of the trend of continuing to adjust, and the decline is steeper than that of the main board. At present, the GEM has fallen below the previous low of 1787 points, and the head and shoulders of 1926 points have been basically completed from the K-line graph, and it has fallen below its neckline this week. At present, the 5-day moving average is turning down the 10-day moving average, the 20-day moving average is also turning down, and the 30-day moving average will be dead next week. This week's disk shows that the short-term 5-day moving average has a certain pressure on the GEM, and the daily MACD fast and slow line opens down again, and the green column pile is enlarged. The J value of the daily KDJ has made a small double-headed backlash, the death fork K value and D value, and there is a possibility of continuing to diverge down next week, and the short-term adjustment of the GEM has not yet ended.
Looking at the weekly line again, this week's GEM pulled out a mid-yin line, falling below the 5-week, 10-week and 20-week moving averages in one fell swoop, and the 30-week moving average has an obvious suppressive effect. The J value of KDJ continued to decline, and the third line of KDJ showed adhesion. If it falls again next week, there will be a dead fork in the weekly KDJ, and the weekly MACD fast line will begin to go down and the opening of the slow line will be narrowed, and the red column pile will be shortened.
Editor's note
The column of the author of this article, Wang Hui, has been settled in "Yicai Knows", and the analysis of the previous market point interval and key focus sectors have been recorded as audio. For more financial knowledge, please click on the lower left corner to go to the "Yicai Knows" financial knowledge learning platform.
Author: Wang Hui
Editor: Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
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