This week, the market has bottomed out and rebounded. On Monday and Tuesday, the market fell back along with last week's adjustment trend, and the market bottomed out on Wednesday and Thursday, and the market rose sharply on Friday under the stimulus of good news from brokers, and hit the annual line again. Last week, I made it clear in the market prediction: "As for the trend of the market next week, I believe that the market still has the ability to rush up to 3,100 points." "At present, the overall market is still dominated by shocks, rising for a few days and falling for a few days, 3100-3000 points have been consolidating for 9 weeks. This week's weekly candlestick is a bit like the March 1 candlestick chart, but the volume has shrunk this week.
The GEM is also bottoming out this week, especially on Friday, the GEM pulled out the big white line, so the rise of the GEM this week is greater than that of the main board. At present, judging from Friday's market, the trading volume of the two markets has been significantly enlarged, which has created better conditions for next week's trend. In terms of hot spots, the mainstream hot spots have not yet appeared significantly this week, and the flying cars and low-altitude economy have performed relatively better. Friday's sharp rise in the brokerage sector was mainly affected by the acquisition of Minsheng Securities by Guolian Securities, but this hot spot is expected to end early next week. At that time, it will be a test for the broader market index, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the performance of the brokerage sector next week.
What's new:
Seven departments jointly issued the "Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Automobile Trade-in Subsidy"
Seven departments, including the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance, jointly issued the "Implementation Rules for Car Trade-in Subsidy". The Detailed Rules clarify the scope and standards of subsidies. From the date of issuance of the Detailed Rules to December 31, 2024, individual consumers who scrap fuel passenger vehicles with emission standards of China III and below or new energy passenger vehicles registered before April 30, 2018, and purchase new passenger cars that meet the energy-saving requirements can enjoy a one-time fixed subsidy. Among them, a subsidy of 10,000 yuan will be given to those who scrap the above two types of old passenger cars and purchase eligible new energy passenger vehicles, and a subsidy of 7,000 yuan will be given to those who scrap fuel passenger cars with emission standards of China III and below and purchase fuel passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less. Note: This is <推动消费品以旧换新行动方案>a specific implementation policy for the trade-in of consumer goods after the "Notice of the Ministry of Commerce and Other 14 Departments on Printing and Distribution", which is good for the automobile sector in the short term.
In the first quarter, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 27th, in the first quarter, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year, turning into positive growth from a decline of 2.3% in the previous year. In terms of quarters, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size have increased for three consecutive quarters, continuing the recovery trend. Statistics show that the revenues of industrial enterprises continue to recover. In the first quarter, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.3% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than that of the previous year, and the revenue of the current quarter increased for three consecutive quarters, creating favorable conditions for the continuous recovery of corporate profits. Nearly seventy percent of the industry's profits have grown. In the first quarter, among the 41 major industrial industries, 28 industries saw a year-on-year increase in profits, accounting for 68.3%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous year. Note: Judging from the latest data from the Bureau of Statistics, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size are gradually recovering in the first quarter, especially in industries led by high and new technologies, and the growth is still relatively fast. The main focus is on the performance of the second quarter. Because only by sustained growth can the economic growth of the whole society return to its previous state. In addition, we should also pay attention to the future state of the private economy.
Weekly review:
This week, the main board opened at 3,059 points, with a high of 3,092 points, a low of 3,016 points, and a close of 3,088 points. It rose 23 points, or 0.76%. The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 9,228 points, with a high of 9,471 points, a low of 9,135 points, and a close of 9,463 points. It rose by 184 points, or 1.99%. The GEM opened at 1,739 points, with a high of 1,826 points, a low of 1,735 points, and a close of 1,823 points. It rose by 67 points, or 3.86%. Among the three major indexes, the ChiNext rose the most. In addition, this week, the BSE 50 finally stopped falling and pulled out a small white candle.
Technical analysis of the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange:
This week, the market has bottomed out and rebounded. Last Thursday, the market soared to 3102 points, and once broke through the annual line. However, it is a pity that it did not stand firm on the year line that day, and closed back below the year line. On Friday, we saw the broader market rise again, but it closed back below the annual line. At present, the market has failed to hit the annual line twice in a row, and there is still a chance next week, hoping that the market can directly gap above the annual line next week, and then continue to rise. In this way, a complete bullish pattern can emerge, which can break through the current consolidation situation and raise the volatility range of the market outlook to a higher level. Now the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day and 30-day moving averages are all stuck together and are all going up. The daily KDJ three-line golden cross will diverge upwards next week. There is a golden cross on the MACD fast and slow line on the day, and there is still room for the market to rise in the future.
Looking at the weekly line again, this week's market pulled out a small white candle with a lower shadow. At present, the nearest upper line is the 60-week moving average, and the 60-week moving average is at 3116 points this week, and it is possible to hit the 60-week moving average next week. The 5-week moving average is now back up, the 10-week moving average is rising rapidly, and the 10-week moving average may naturally cross the 10-week moving average next week. From a purely technical point of view, the third line of Zhou KDJ has not been opened and is still in a state of adhesion. The opening between the fast and slow lines of the weekly MACD has not changed much, and the red column pile has been slightly enlarged. On the whole, there is still room for growth in the market outlook.
GEM Technical Analysis:
This week, the GEM has seen a bottoming out and rebounding trend. Last week, we said that the GEM went a head and shoulders trend, and after 11 trading days of sideways trading at the bottom, it rose on Friday and broke through the neckline. At present, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the high point of the right shoulder can be broken, and only by breaking through the high point of the right shoulder of 1872 points can we say that the GEM has reconstructed an upward trend. From the moving average system, the 30-day moving average is a half-year cross, and the GEM has hit near the half-year line. Next week, we should pay close attention to the gains and losses of the half-year line, and next week's 5-day moving average will be a golden cross 10-day moving average. 5 days, 10 days up, the daily KDJ divergence, the daily MACD fast and slow line adhesion, the beginning of next week will be the golden cross, the green pillar pile shrinks rapidly. Since the GEM rose a bit on Friday, it may come out of the trend of rising and falling next week.
Looking at the weekly line again, this week's GEM pulled out a mid-yang line. The GEM index has regained its footing above the 5-week, 10-week and 20-week moving averages. At present, the 5-week moving average is dead fork of the 10-week moving average, the 30-week moving average continues to press down, and the GEM index will face the suppression of the 30-week moving average next week. From a purely technical point of view, the J value of the weekly KDJ is flat, the opening of the weekly MACD fast and slow line has increased slightly, and the red column pile has also increased slightly. On the whole, the mid-term adjustment of the GEM has not yet ended.
Editor's note
The column of the author of this article, Wang Hui, has been settled in "Yicai Knows", and the analysis of the previous market point interval and key focus sectors have been recorded as audio. For more financial knowledge, please click on the lower left corner to go to the "Yicai Knows" financial knowledge learning platform.
Author: Wang Hui
Editor: Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
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