This week, the market has seen a wide range of fluctuations, with a weekly shock of more than 100 points. At present, the market is mainly between 3000 and 3100 points, and the whole see-saw time is 8 weeks, and the market will theoretically look for a breakthrough direction next and next week. There are more positive candlesticks than negative candlesticks in the broader market this week, and the more obvious negative candlesticks appeared on Tuesday. A false white candlestick appeared on Friday, and the rest of the trading days were bullish. The K-line chart shows that the competition for long and short has been fierce since last week, and there was a small black line on Friday, which was reversed by many parties on Monday, and the bears suppressed the market on Tuesday, trying to reverse Monday's yang K-line, but it was unsuccessful. On Wednesday, the bulls launched a counteroffensive, pulled out the long white line, and once again successfully reversed Tuesday's negative line, the success of these two reversals established confidence in the market, and the market has been running above 3050 points for the next two trading days.
On the other hand, the trend of the GEM is unsatisfactory. Although this week is also in a sideways trend, the 1800 points have not passed. The GEM has seen a downward channel in the short term, and the market needs to be treated with caution. This week's hot spots are mainly concentrated in large-cap blue-chip stocks, among which the financial troika and the rise in the petroleum and petrochemical industry have contributed to the pull of the large-cap index, so many people have made money on the index but not on the index. Next week, due to changes in the international situation, we still have to pay attention to the movement of commodities, precious metals and oil prices.
What's new:
China Securities Regulatory Commission: Lowering the commission rate of fund stock trading and reducing the upper limit of the distribution ratio of fund managers' securities trading commissions
In order to thoroughly implement the Several Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market, further strengthen the management of securities transaction costs of publicly offered securities investment funds, standardize the management of securities transaction commissions and distribution of fund managers, protect the legitimate rights and interests of fund share holders, and enhance the service capabilities of institutional investors of securities companies, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) formulated and issued the Regulations on the Administration of Securities Transaction Costs of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds, which will be officially implemented from July 1, 2024. Note: This has a certain effect on regulating the trading of funds. However, judging from the long-term operating tendency of fund holders, this news is limited.
Central Huijin spent about 145 billion yuan in the first quarter to buy three broad-based ETFs
The first quarter report of 2024 recently released by some funds confirmed that in the sharp adjustment market in the first quarter of this year, Central Huijin bought heavily. For the three broad-based ETFs that have disclosed quarterly reports alone, Huijin has spent about 145 billion yuan. The quarterly report of Harvest CSI 300 ETF confirmed that in the first quarter of this year, Central Huijin increased its holdings of the fund by 15.6 billion. As of the end of the first quarter of this year, Huijin held a total of 18.286 billion shares of the fund. The disclosure of the quarterly report of ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF also proves that Central Huijin has bought 17 billion shares in the first quarter, costing about 56 billion yuan. As of the end of the first quarter of this year, Central Huijin held a total of 28.221 billion shares of ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF, with a market value of 69.1 billion yuan. Among them, the subscription share in the first quarter of this year was 15.867 billion shares, and in combination with market trends, the purchase amount of Central Huijin was about 36 billion yuan. Note: The outlook is simple, just pay attention to the performance of these ETFs. Regarding the movement of the national team, these ETFs are the weather vane.
Weekly review:
This week, the main board opened at 3,013 points, with a high of 3,102 points, a low of 2,995 points, and a close of 3,065 points. It rose by 45 points, or 1.52%. The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 9,228 points, reached a high of 9,477 points, reached a low of 9,148 points, and closed at 9,279 points. It rose 51 points, or 0.56%. GEM opened at 1,770 points, with a high of 1,807 points, a low of 1,740 points, and a close of 1,756 points. It fell by 6 points, or 0.39%. Among the three major indexes this week, the Shanghai stock market rose the most, and the ChiNext index turned green. In addition, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 continued to fall this week, and the 50 index has been in the negative line for 5 consecutive weeks.
Technical analysis of the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange:
This week, the market did not continue the downward trend of last week, but showed a trend of bottoming out. The market rebounded after falling below 3,000 points and returned to around 3,100 points again, and the market is still oscillating around 3,050 points. Last week's 5-day moving average turned downward, and this week's 5-day moving average turned upward and crossed the 10-day, 20-day and 30-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is a golden cross and the 20-day moving average is flat, and the broader market closes above the 5-day moving average on Friday. Next, we still have to pay attention to the change of the 5-day moving average, the current market at 2984 and 2995 points to make a double bottom, this double bottom is the middle of the consolidation and then break up to break through the middle pattern or the high head pattern to pay close attention. Judging from the daily KDJ, the J value turned around on Friday, the daily MACD fast and slow lines showed adhesion, and the green column pile gradually shrank. The trend of the broader market last week and this week is a bit weird on the MACD, and it should break 2984 points next after the market correction on Wednesday. However, Wednesday's sharp rise in shrinkage pulled the broader market back above 3,050 points. If the market rises on Friday, the MACD fast and slow line can appear a golden cross, but we also saw the trend on Friday, it only pulled out a false white line, which led to the daily MACD can not appear in a golden cross state. The market outlook has left the market with a suspense, whether this week's trend is tempting or really much, everyone thinks for themselves.
Looking at the weekly line again, a positive candle pulled out by the market this week covered last week's negative candle. Judging from the graph, it is a typical head-piercing trend, and with the amplification of volume, the medium line should be cautious. The broader market will be under pressure from the 60-week moving average next week, and the 60-week moving average may be around 3116 points next week. Now the 5-week moving average continues to flat, and this week the 10-week moving average is a golden cross and a 30-week moving average. Zhou KDJ's three-line opening continued to close, and adhesion had already appeared. As long as there is a pullback in the broader market next week, then KDJ will immediately have a death fork. The opening between the fast and slow lines of the weekly MACD has not changed much, and the red column pile has shrunk slightly, and the overall market outlook may change.
GEM Technical Analysis:
This week, the GEM continued to adjust. Last week, when I was analyzing the trend of the GEM, I said that the GEM has fallen below the previous low of 1787 points. Judging from the K-line chart, the head and shoulders top of 1926 points is basically completed, and it has fallen below its neckline at 1787 points last week. This week, the GEM fluctuated up and down near the neckline, but after making a small double head at 1807 this week, the GEM is looking to dip again on Friday. At present, the GEM has hit a new low in this round of decline, falling below the 60-day moving average on Friday. At present, the 5-day moving average continues to flat, the 10-day moving average is rapidly falling, and the 20-day moving average is a half-year dead fork. The three lines of KDJ are sticky, and the J value turns down. The daily MACD fast and slow line continues to go down, the green column pile increases slightly, and the overall adjustment of the gem has not ended.
Looking at the weekly timeframe, the market has come out of a small black candlestick close to the doji this week. The 5-week moving average continues to move down, and the 10-week moving average is a golden cross to the 20-week moving average. At present, the GEM weekly close is below the 10-week moving average and is suppressed by the 5-week moving average, so the 10-week moving average golden cross and the 20-week moving average cannot have any supporting effect on the GEM. Next week, we should pay attention to the gains and losses of the 5-week moving average, at present, the weekly KDJ has just died fork, and there is a downward divergence process next. The opening of the weekly MACD fast and slow line has narrowed, the red column pile has been shortened, and the adjustment of the central line will continue.
Editor's note
The column of the author of this article, Wang Hui, has been settled in "Yicai Knows", and the analysis of the previous market point interval and key focus sectors have been recorded as audio. For more financial knowledge, please click on the lower left corner to go to the "Yicai Knows" financial knowledge learning platform.
Author: Wang Hui
Editor: Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
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