1. Market review and operation strategy
This week, the net outflow of northbound funds was 11.468 billion yuan, the market continued to fluctuate, the turnover shrank, and the plate rotated rapidly. Under the expectation of secondary inflation, non-ferrous metals and precious metals performed strongly, the AI sector continued to adjust, and treasury bond futures reached a new high.
In terms of commodity futures, commodity futures mostly rose this week. Under the expectation of the resumption of production of steel mills, the black sector generally rebounded at a low level, especially the raw materials bifocal and iron ore, which led the commodity market this week. The non-ferrous sector also continued to hit the high level under the expectation of reflation. The energy and chemical sector is still strong, and the trend of energy commodities is also stronger than that of chemical commodities. This week's trend is relatively weak is the agricultural products sector, the arrival of imported oils and oilseeds in April gradually increased, the USDA report also exceeded expectations, and the performance of the agricultural products sector was weak.
2. Market operation strategy for next week:
Financial: The CPI in the United States in March once again exceeded expectations, overseas reflation expectations rose, and non-ferrous metals and precious metals are expected to continue their strong trend. Recently, the inflow of incremental funds in the market has slowed down, the trend of the sector is differentiated, the index may continue to fluctuate, and the performance of IF and IH is highly certain, and it is expected to prevail in stages.
Black: With the expectation of an increase in spot, bifocal prices are expected to continue to be strong. On the steel side, at present, the price of thread is close to the cost of flat electricity, and the price increase will also inhibit some demand, and it is expected that the disk will be mainly shocked. Iron ore prices are elastic, but they are still accumulating, and they are expected to fluctuate. The building materials side is expected to continue to be weak and short on high prices. Soda ash oscillation.
Non-ferrous metals and new energy: The non-ferrous sector will continue to trade strong macro logic, and the probability of reflation trading being interrupted is low, and the overall sector is expected to remain strong. The strength of non-ferrous varieties in the market outlook is ranked as copper> aluminum> tin> zinc> lead > nickel, and the supply and demand problems of copper, aluminum and tin are more prominent, zinc and lead are mainly supply disturbances, and nickel is more oriented to demand expectations.
Energy and chemical industry: The market is expected to increase secondary inflation, and the supply and demand are tight in the second quarter, and crude oil is expected to remain strong. Oil products and petrochemical industry are still mainly long, coal chemical industry is cautious and low, pulp is still bullish, and rubber continues to wait and see.
Agricultural products: The current round of oil and oil rally may have peaked as the arrival of imported oils and oilseeds is expected to increase sharply in April, and the recent domestic oil inventories have rebounded after falling for nearly three consecutive months. Although the MPOB monthly report next week is expected to be bullish, it is estimated that it will be difficult to change the general direction of the price decline in the medium and long term. We have been bearish on the market outlook in the first two weeks and continue to maintain our original view.
3. Economic calendar for next week
Author: Soochow Futures Research Institute
Editors: Zhang Shu, Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji