The autonomous driving market is rapidly developing and attracting attention from all parties. With the continuous advancement of technology, the reliability and safety of autonomous vehicles continue to improve, and they have become a popular development direction in the field of transportation in the future. At present, the world's major automakers and technology companies are increasing their investment in autonomous driving technology, and the competition is becoming increasingly fierce. At the same time, the government's regulations and regulations on autonomous vehicles are also constantly improving, providing a guarantee for the healthy development of the market. As the commercial application of autonomous vehicles matures, the market size is also expanding.
On October 11, Beijing time, Tesla held a "We, Robot" press conference and officially released a Robotaxi called Cybercab·. According to official information, the Cybercab is a two-door coupe with a gullwing door design, and there are only seats and a central control screen in the front row, which looks very simple. At the press conference, there were a total of 50 driverless cars. Musk said the Cybercab is expected to cost less than $30,000 and will be in production in 2026. Tesla is expected to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities in Texas and California next year.
Musk said that people now need to spend too much money and too much time on transportation, and at the same time use it very infrequently, he said, for example, there are 168 hours a week, but the car may only be used for 10 hours, so self-driving technology can greatly improve the time of car use while reducing costs.
Musk also confirmed that the car supports inductive charging, does not provide a steering wheel, accelerator, and brake pedal, and uses Tesla's FSD automatic driving, which truly realizes "the car can't be driven".
Tesla's vision is to build a self-driving network through which FSD-capable vehicles can be mobilized into Robotaxis at any time, allowing owners to generate additional revenue for themselves when not in use. Autonomous driving technology, as one of the important applications in the field of artificial intelligence, is gradually entering our lives and becoming an important development direction of future transportation, playing an important role in the improvement of traffic safety, the optimization of traffic efficiency and the selection of travel modes. Autonomous driving has already been used in a variety of fields, such as public transportation, taxis, logistics and distribution, and urban infrastructure. In the future, with the further development of technology and the improvement of regulations, it is expected that more application scenarios will emerge.
Tesla and Huawei are leading the way in the field of autonomous driving, and Tesla has officially started training end-to-end models in 2023, and has released the FSD Beta V12 beta version in 2024. Compared with Huawei, a Chinese manufacturer, Huawei adopts the BEV + Transformer + GOD network (General Obstacle Detection Network) architecture, and further enhances the inference network based on road topology, which has excellent performance in actual operation and reduces the dependence of autonomous driving technology on high-definition maps.
China's autonomous vehicle industry is currently and will be in the initial stage of research and development for a period of time in the future, so China is still in the development period of the autonomous vehicle industry, and it is expected that with the continuous improvement of foreign technology maturity, the enthusiasm of domestic car companies to participate in the research and development of autonomous vehicles will rise. From the perspective of penetration rate, it is optimistically predicted that by 2030, the penetration rate of L0, L1, L2, L3 and L4 autonomous driving in China will reach 7%, 11%, 51%, 20% and 11% respectively.
At present, China's major car companies have laid out the autonomous driving business, Geely, Great Wall, Changan, Dongfeng, FAW Hongqi, SAIC, and Chery have achieved L3 level intelligent driving layout, of which Geely, Great Wall, and Dongfeng have entered the L4/L5 level intelligent driving field, and by 2025, major mainland car companies will deploy L4/L5 level intelligent driving.
According to the analysis of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, with the development of 5G, cloud computing, Internet of Things and other technologies, the performance and stability of the autonomous driving system have been greatly improved. In terms of key technologies such as perception, decision-making, and execution, in the future, autonomous driving technology will achieve more breakthroughs and market applications, and continue to develop in a more efficient, safer, and intelligent direction.
According to Frost &Sullivan's forecast, the market size of China's Robotaxi will reach 488.8 billion yuan in 2030. Some analysts believe that Robotaxi may be one of the best scenarios for high-end intelligent driving. With the reduction of travel costs brought about by Robotaxi, the mobility market is expected to expand to trillions.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "China Driverless Vehicle (Autonomous Vehicle) Industry Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
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