Since August, the price of imported frozen products has followed the domestic pig price to stop rising and pullback, the enthusiasm of frozen products out of the warehouse has increased, and imported products have remained weak, which further confirms that the current import traders are not optimistic and the procurement mentality is more cautious. In the fourth quarter, the slaughter of live pigs may continue to increase, the price of live pigs and pork may fluctuate and fall, the rise of imported products will be weak, and the superimposed consumption may be more dispersed, which is difficult to support the optimistic expectations of traders, so the import volume in the fourth quarter may continue to decline, and it is difficult to break the "100" tons.
1. The price of imported products fluctuated and fell, maintaining a weak state
Since late August 2024, imported frozen products have shown a state of shock and decline. According to the data monitoring of Zhuochuang Information, as of September 25, the price of pig head (with ears and tongue) in Shanghai Port was 12,550 yuan/ton, down 10.36% from the high point in August; No. 2 meat was 22,000 yuan/ton, down 3.93% from the high point in August; No. 4 meat was 23,400 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the August high; The hind leg bone was 6250 yuan/ton, down 3.85% from the high point in August. As the price of live pigs continues to run weakly, import traders are highly motivated to leave the warehouse, and the price of imported products remains weak.
2. Traders are not optimistic and have a more cautious purchasing mentality
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of pork in August was 93,400 tons, up 5.10% month-on-month and down 15.03% year-on-year; From January to August, the import volume of pork was 695,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 40.52%. In 2024, pork imports will continue to remain low, and it will be difficult to break the "100,000 tons" mark, which further confirms that traders are not optimistic about the year, the profit margin is not high, and the procurement mentality is more cautious. In addition, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure of import traders is not large, so they are more active in leaving the warehouse to increase liquidity.
3. The slaughter volume in the fourth quarter may increase month-on-month, and the price of imported products may be relatively weak
According to the annual slaughter data of 17 listed companies that have been disclosed in the market, the number of pigs slaughtered by listed companies from January to August is 96.7931 million, accounting for 59.47% of the 2024 slaughter plan, and the number of pigs to be slaughtered in the fourth quarter is 40.53%, so the breeding end or pressure to increase the amount of slaughter and speed up the slaughter, so the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises to purchase is reduced, and the slaughter volume may increase. In addition, the fourth quarter belongs to the traditional pork consumption season, downstream consumption or gradually improved, secondary fattening and other pig sources or slaughtered one after another, further increasing the market pork supply. Therefore, according to the seasonal index of slaughter volume, Zhuochuang Information expects that the average daily slaughter of pigs in the fourth quarter may increase by 15%-20% compared with the third quarter. However, the demand boost may not be as large as the increase in slaughter, so hog and pork prices fluctuated and fell in the fourth quarter. Imported products are affected by domestic pig prices and maintain a weakened operating state.
4. In the fourth quarter, pork imports may decline month-on-month, and it is difficult to break the "100,000 tons".
Affected by the domestic pig slaughter, the fourth quarter of the pig price or shock fall, import traders bearish expectations or enhanced, import product prices or rise weakly, maintain a weak state, its domestic price advantage or weakened, profit margins narrowed, so import traders procurement mentality is still more cautious, procurement or decrease. In addition, in 2024, affected by macro factors such as population aging, pork consumption power, consumer groups, and per capita disposable income, the peak consumption season of imported products is similar to that of domestic pork, and its peak consumption season may be more scattered and diluted. To sum up, pork imports in the fourth quarter may continue to decline month-on-month, and it may still be difficult to break the "100,000" tons during the year, and the year-on-year decline may continue to expand.