【Introduction】According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, in August 2024, China's cold-rolled coil import and export increased month-on-month, and net exports increased, which had a certain positive impact on the market.
In August, China's net export volume of cold-rolled coil was 186,400 tons, an increase of 34,700 tons from the previous month. So what is the specific performance of cold-rolled coil import and export? How will net exports develop in the future and how will it affect the cold rolled market?
In terms of imports, China's cold-rolled coil imports in August were 52,000 tons, an increase of 20.84% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 21.99%. In terms of quantity, the import volume in August increased by 9,000 tons compared with the previous month, compared with last year, the month-on-month change was just the opposite direction of the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative import was 359,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 42.55%, and the cumulative import year-on-year decrease was 2.46 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative import performance continued to decline by less than 50% compared with last year. Combined with the market performance, although the change in domestic demand is not obvious, the subtle changes in the import structure have affected the import performance to a certain extent. In terms of average price, the average import price in August was 1105.02 US dollars / ton, down 14.88% month-on-month and up 1.63% year-on-year, the year-on-year increase was narrower than that of the previous month, and the average import price month-on-month performance gradually moved closer to the direction of the domestic market. According to the exchange rate, the average import price of cold-rolled coil in August was 7790.39 yuan/ton, 103.90% higher than the domestic average price of 3820.7 yuan/ton monitored by Zhuochuang Information, and slightly closer than the previous month. At present, the average price of imported resources is still high, and according to the characteristics of high prices of high-end materials for cold-rolled coils, imported resources are still dominated by high-end varieties of steel.
In terms of exports, China's cold-rolled coil exports in August were 238,300 tons, an increase of 22.45% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.56% from a month-on-month decline, narrowing the year-on-year decline. From January to August, China's cumulative exports of cold-rolled coils were 1.6481 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 44.68%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline was 0.53 percentage points larger than that of the previous month. In terms of trend changes, the monthly export volume of cold-rolled coils from January to August 2024 is basically close, and there is a significant high point last year. In August, the year-on-year decline in cold-rolled coil exports expanded, and the cold-rolled coil exports in the same period last year were the second climax of the year. In terms of average price performance, the average export price was 637.9 US dollars / ton, the average export price decreased by 2.77% month-on-month and 2.44% year-on-year, and was converted to about 4497.20 yuan/ton according to the exchange rate, down about 3.46% month-on-month after conversion. The month-on-month performance was slightly lower than the 6.40% decline in the average price of the domestic market. Compared with the average import and export prices, combined with the characteristics of high unit prices of high-end materials for cold-rolled coils, the classification structure of cold-rolled coil import and export resources in August may not change much.
The number of import trading partners decreased, and the proportion of the top three import trading partners decreased
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of People's Republic of China, the number of China's cold-rolled coil import trading partners decreased to 29 in August, a decrease of 3 from the previous month, and the concentration of major import trading partners has decreased. Among them, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Germany and Sweden are the top 5 major trading partners of China's cold-rolled coil imports, the same as the previous month, but the proportion ranking has changed slightly. In August, cold-rolled coils from Korea occupied the first place among China's cold-rolled coil import trading partners, importing 29,000 tons in August, accounting for 55.81%, a decrease of 12.05 percentage points from the previous period. followed by Japan, importing 11,900 tons, accounting for 22.98%. The third place is Taiwan, China, with an import volume of 5,700 tons, accounting for 11.02%. The total import volume of the top three trading partners decreased to 89.81%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from the previous period.
The number of export trading partners decreased simultaneously, and the proportion of the top five export trading partners increased
In terms of export trading partners, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the number of China's cold-rolled coil export trading partners decreased by 5 to 117 in August. Among them, Taiwan, U.A.E., Colombia, Indonesia and Korea are the top five trading partners of China's cold-rolled coil exports. Compared with the previous month, the top major export trading partners this month changed slightly, and Korea returned to the top five export trading partners. From the perspective of the top three export partners, the cold-rolled coil exported to Taiwan, China this month occupies the first place among China's cold-rolled coil export trading partners, with 33,900 tons exported this month, accounting for 14.22%, an increase from 10.30% in the previous period. It was followed by the U.A.E., with exports of 32,000 tons, accounting for 13.46%. The third place is Colombia, with an export volume of 22,500 tons, accounting for 9.46%. In terms of data, the top five trading partners of China's cold-rolled coil exports accounted for 47.92% in August, remaining below 50%, but an increase of 2.29 percentage points from the previous month.
Judging from the changes in import and export trading partners, the concentration of imports has decreased slightly, and the concentration of exports has increased slightly. In the past two periods, the top trading partners in import and export rankings are relatively fixed, indicating that the situation of foreign trading partners is relatively stable. Recently, there have been many changes in the international trade situation, and the main import and export partners of cold-rolled coil have also had slight policy changes, which have a certain impact on China's cold-rolled import and export.
On the whole, in August 2024, China's import and export of cold-rolled coils increased year-on-year, and the activity of cold-rolled coil import and export trade increased. In August, China's net export volume of cold-rolled coil was 186,400 tons, an increase of 34,700 tons from the previous month, and the change in net export volume changed from decline to increase. From January to August, the net export volume totaled 1.2938 million tons, a decrease of 1.0601 million tons, or 45.04%, from 2.354 million tons in the same period last year, and the decline was 1.13 percentage points larger than that of the previous period. From the analysis of the change in the cumulative net export volume, the net export performance is under pressure from above to a certain extent.
For the future import and export of cold-rolled coil expectations, although there is still an expectation of seasonal increase in exports in September and October. However, the current international macro environment and the import and export situation are still complex, and the cumulative net export volume decline is expected to continue to expand. Therefore, it is expected that in the market outlook, the month-on-month performance of China's cold-rolled coil import and export will have a certain positive impact on the market, but the cumulative decrease in net exports will still play a squeeze on the internal supply and demand.