From Gaza to Lebanon, a new Middle East war is brewing. Since the Golan Heights attack, Israel has publicly expressed his desire to retaliate against the Lebanon Allah Party. It is reported that Israel's wartime cabinet has authorized the Netanyahu government to wage a full-scale war against Lebanon. Despite its current enemies on all sides and the obstruction of United States, Israel has made up its mind to go to war against Lebanon. Recently, a number of airlines have announced the grounding of flights to Lebanon, and a big war is imminent.
It stands to reason that the contradictions between the Israel and the Lebanon Allah Party erupted in the Golan Heights, which was originally Syria territory and was seized by Israeli forces in the Middle East war. Now that Allah is in trouble, and as a member of the "Arc of Resistance", Syria's Assad government should send troops to help, but so far, the Syria government has remained silent and has no sign of entering the war.
In terms of strength, the Syria government army has as many as 240,000 people, and its tanks, armor, artillery and warplanes far exceed those of Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, and Allah, and it is fully capable of wrestling with Israel. And the reason why Syria is not moving is really because it is powerless. Because of the full-scale civil war in Syria that began in 2011, the Assad regime faces not only Syria rebels, but also Western-backed mercenaries and Kurdish forces. Years of civil war have left Syria in devastation. So far, the rebels in Syria have not been driven out, and the US military and Kurdish forces have seized a large number of oil fields and land in Syria. On this basis, Syria also suffered from the economic sanctions of the West, the domestic people were in dire straits, and the internal problems were not resolved, so Assad naturally had no spare strength to help the Lebanon Allah Party.
After the Golan Heights incident, Israel had every reason to start a war against Syria in passing, but now Israel is also greatly damaged. On the battlefield in Gaza, the Israel army has been fighting continuously for more than nine months, just when people are sleepy and tired, and they urgently need a period of recuperation. At the same time, Syria is not alone, the Russian army has been fighting side by side with the Syrian government army since the outbreak of the Syria civil war, and as of now, a large number of Russian troops and Wagner mercenary clusters are still stationed in Syria. Therefore, once the Israeli army starts a war against Syria, the Russian army will certainly not sit idly by. Israel does not dare to touch Russia's mold, and can only take Lebanon out of anger.
Leaving aside the strength of the Lebanon government army, the Lebanon Allah party is not a soft persimmon. As a Shiite political and military organization in Lebanon, Allah, founded in the 80s of the 20th century, is brave and combative, with a total of 100,000 troops, 150,000 rockets and missiles, and a large number of anti-aircraft, anti-tank and even anti-ship missiles. Back in 2006, a large-scale clash broke out between the Israel Defense Forces and the Lebanon Allah Party. In this conflict, which is known as the "Second Lebanese-Israeli War", the Israeli army fought hard for 34 days without achieving a clear military superiority, and finally ended with a United Nations ceasefire resolution. Since the end of the conflict in 2006, Israel has had a strong sense of revenge against Allah, but both sides exercised restraint until the outbreak of the Golan Heights.
At present, whether Israel launches a full-scale war against Lebanon depends on many factors. On the one hand, United States has always wanted to get out of the Middle East, whether it is Biden or Trump, they are worried about the regional conflict escalating into a full-scale war, and do not want the conflict to spread. Because of the United States's significant influence in military assistance and diplomatic support to Israel, Israel had to exercise restraint. Previously, Netanyahu visited United States to seek support, and it was clear that even after Biden withdrew from the election, the Democrats and Republicans did not support Israel's expansion and escalation of the Middle East war.
On the other hand, Israel has to assess the current war situation in the Middle East. Because the Israel Defense Forces are faced with a situation of multi-front operations. In the Gaza Strip and the West Bank of Jordan, fighting between the Israeli army and the Palestinian resistance forces is not over. In particular, with the assassination of Haniyeh, the supreme leader of Hamas, the hatred between the two sides has further escalated, and it has reached a stage of non-death. On top of that, Israel faces threats from the Houthis, Syria, Iraq militias, and Iran. For Israel, which has limited troops, a protracted war of attrition would seriously shake the country's foundations. It can be said that once the war begins, Israel will gamble on the future of the entire country.