Khamenei Source: Sputnik News Agency of Russia
Straight News: After Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack on Iran, Iran has threatened to launch a large-scale retaliatory action, and the New York Times even reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei has ordered a direct attack on Israel. In your opinion, will this lead to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East?
Liu Heping: In fact, in early April this year, after Israel's air raid on the Iran Embassy in Syria led to the death of Zahedi, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, Iran carried out an unprecedented round of retaliation against Israel itself. For Iran, the nature of this attack is undoubtedly worse, Israel not only directly attacked Iran's important guests on Iran's soil, but also the attack occurred during the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new president, Pezeshiziyan. In other words, Israel's attack not only seriously violated Iran's sovereignty, but also seriously harmed Iran's national dignity.
From this point of view, Iran not only has the impulse to retaliate against Israel, but also has "10,000" reasons to retaliate against Israel. But despite this, I still insist that Iran will not launch a large-scale retaliatory action against Israel, let alone a full-scale war with Israel. There is actually only one reason behind this, that is, Iran not only cannot defeat Israel, but the difference in strength between the two sides is too large. I believe that in the last Iran retaliation against Israel on an unprecedented scale, nearly 99% of the missiles and drones were intercepted, and the subsequent counter-retaliatory action against Israel Iran also caused heavy losses to Iran, which has made Iran realize the difference in strength between the two sides, so that Iran finally stopped the "anti-retaliation" against the Israel. This time, under the unusually tight protection of Iran, Haniyeh was attacked in Tehran, the capital of Iran, and to this day Iran does not know how Israel did this, whether Israel launched the attack from Iran or from Israel. This phenomenon not only means that the entire territory of Iran is in a state of extreme insecurity, but also means that the strength of the two sides is not at the same level at all.
Of course, for Iran, having suffered such a humiliating humiliation, and it is impossible to deal with the rising nationalist sentiment at home without retaliation, it is very likely that Iran will take some symbolic retaliatory actions, and may even not come forward and let the militias in Syria and Iraq come out for themselves.
For Israel, its current strategic imperative remains to eliminate Hamas completely, followed by the Iran-backed Lebanon Allah Party and the Houthis, and finally Iran. That is, Iran is not yet a target that Israel urgently needs to address. This also means that the situation in the Middle East will not escalate because of this, and a major war between the two sides will not be fought.
Chania Source: Radio Television Hong Kong
Straight news: After the attack on its own leader Haniyeh, Hamas not only decided that it was a "serious escalation" of the situation, but also warned Israel that it must bear serious consequences for its actions. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Regarding Israel's attack on Haniyeh and Hamas's statement, I have three basic judgments:
The first is that Haniyeh is known to be a moderate and pragmatic member of the Hamas leadership compared to other Hamas leaders, and especially to Sinwar, who has been fighting guerrilla warfare against the Israeli army in Gaza. In fact, he has been advocating for and facilitating negotiations between Hamas and Israel. However, just when the outside world thought that the peace talks between the two sides were about to reach the final kick, Israel did not hesitate to offend Iran and killed Haniyeh on Iran's territory. In fact, this proves once again that Israel has never really wanted peace talks, and its peace talks with Hamas are just a show, that is, to deal with pressure from the international community, especially the United States, and domestic to negotiate a solution to the hostage issue.
Secondly, prior to the killing of Haniyeh, various Palestinian factions had signed the Beijing Declaration on Ending Divisions and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity in Beijing. The issuance of the "Beijing Declaration" not only means that all parties concerned are willing to give Hamas a way out, but also means that Hamas intends to abandon its original radical line and radical practices and transform into a moderate organization that can be recognized and accepted by the international community, so as to participate in the state-building action of Palestine. In this case, Israel still wants to kill Hamas's moderate leader Haniyeh, and the political signal behind this is that Israel has never intended to let Hamas live, let alone see Hamas's "normalization."
Third, from a common sense point of view, Israel's killing of Haniyeh, the moderate leader of Hamas, will certainly further stimulate anti-Israeli sentiment within Hamas, especially the radicals within Hamas, which will not be conducive to peace talks, let alone lasting peace and stability in Gaza. Israel, however, did just that. This also means that Israel did not take Hamas's response seriously at all, not to mention that Hamas is no longer a time when it is strong, but when it is scattered and fled by Israel.
Blinken Source: Radio Television Hong Kong
Straight News: Regarding the attack on Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is visiting Singapore, said, "We are not aware of this matter and are not involved." What do you think about this?
Liu Heping: Actually, there is no doubt that the root cause of Israel's daring to kill all sides in the Middle East is the support and connivance of United States, especially the United States military force that has held up a strong protective umbrella for Israel. This means that the ultimate consequences of Israel's actions in the Middle East will be borne by United States. Under these circumstances, according to common sense and common sense, all major military operations by Israel in the Middle East should be communicated and coordinated with United States in advance. However, whether it was the attack on Chaniah or the death of Allah's military commander and head of the strategic forces in Israel's bombing of Lebanon's capital Beirut, which resulted in the death of Allah's military commander and head of the strategic forces, whether it was the White House press secretary of United States, US Secretary of Defense Austin or Secretary of State Antony Blinken, they all publicly claimed that they neither knew nor participated.
I think this is extremely abnormal. First of all, it is certainly not because the United States is afraid of Hamas and Iran and deliberately abdicates its responsibilities. Nor is this the style of the United States. You know, even Israel is not afraid of Hamas and Iran, and United States, the world's number one military hegemon, has no reason to be afraid. Second, according to the past routine, United States is very likely to have an ambiguous attitude towards such things, that is, neither affirm nor deny, in order to show its support for Israel and the closeness of US-Israeli relations, and maintain a certain strategic deterrence against Iran and Hamas. Therefore, United States flatly denies this matter and makes it public, in fact, it is venting its dissatisfaction with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Because Netanyahu attacked both Iran and Hamas's political leader Haniyeh and Lebanon to kill Allah's No. 2 Shukur almost at the same time, these two things directly slapped the Biden administration in the face, because during this time, the Biden administration is trying to coordinate the negotiations between Hamas and Israel, and has repeatedly said that the negotiations are about to succeed, and the other is not conducive to the election of the Democratic Party, because the supporters of the Democratic Party have always opposed the Biden administration's support for Israel's attack on Hamas, Hopefully, the war will end soon. This means that if Israel reaches a peace agreement with Hamas, it will be good for the Democratic Party, and vice versa, it will be good for Trump. From this point of view, it cannot be ruled out that Netanyahu's action to escalate the war this time is a gift to Trump and intends to implicitly help Trump get elected.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".