彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）
Peter · Thiel, entrepreneur and investor. He founded PayPal in 1998 and served as CEO, and in 2002, he sold PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion, bringing e-commerce into a new era. In 2004, he made his first external investment in Facebook and served as a director. In the same year, he founded Palantir, a software company, to serve data analysis in the field of defense security and global finance. Co-founded the Founders Fund venture capital fund, which has provided early-stage funding to more than a dozen outstanding tech startups such as LinkedIn, Elon Musk's SpaceX, Yelp, etc. The Thiel Fellowship and the Thiel Foundation were established to encourage young people to learn and start businesses outside of school to advance science and technology and think about the future. Author of the New York Times' No. 1 bestseller, "Zero to One: Notes on Startups." In addition, Peter · Thiel's "unique" political vision is also talked about. During the 2016 United States election, Thiel was the only Silicon Valley tycoon to stand up for Trump and served as his adviser after the latter's inauguration. "Coincidentally", according to US media disclosures, Trump's 2024 presidential election mate Vance is also Till's long-term "investment" object. It was with Thiel's encouragement and support that Vance completed his transformation from a political amateur to a rising political star, and Thiel was even one of the "key promoters" who brought Vance to Trump. Today, I would like to bring you Peter · Thiel's "The Way of Reverse Thinking" shared by the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University in 2016, which is selected from "Qian Yingyi's Dialogue: Global Dialogue on Creativity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship" (written by Qian Yingyi, Commercial Press, 2021 edition).
Qian Yingyi's conversation
A global conversation about creativity, innovation, entrepreneurship
Qian Yingyi
The Commercial Press, 2021 edition
On March 25, 2016, Qian Yingyi had a dialogue with famous investor Peter · Thiel (right) at Tsinghua School of Economics and Management
The way to think backwards
What is reverse thinking?
Qian Yingyi: From your class four years ago to today's class, there is an idea that runs through it, which is contrarian thinking, right? In this lesson, you have further enriched your mind.
Peter · Thiel: Yes, that's thinking throughout. But contrarian thinking is not about disagreeing with others for the sake of disagreeing. If this is the case, it is no longer reverse thinking, but only continuous thinking with a negative sign - first see what the mainstream public opinion is, and then add a negative sign in front.
Qian Yingyi: Many people have this tendency to put a negative sign in front of everything you say when they disagree with you, and it becomes the opposite. So, what is true contrarian thinking?
Peter · Thiel: True reverse thinking is to think independently, not to follow the crowd or to go against the people around you, but to think about interesting issues that no one else has even thought about. So reverse thinking is about exploring aspects that interest you but others haven't found interesting about them.
I have a friend who was a PhD student a few years ago and he thinks that the biggest difference between a successful PhD student and an unsuccessful PhD student is not the ability to do research, but the ability to ask the right questions. If you can ask the right questions, which are not too easy or too difficult, you will be able to answer them in an interesting way. It's a productive ability, and you can get a lot of interesting results by starting with the right questions. A lot of the smartest people work very hard, but they never really ask the right questions. The questions they ask are questions that everyone is asking, and a lot of people are researching, so it's hard to stand out. If the question is interesting but impossible to answer, it is difficult to make much progress. So contrarian thinking doesn't always have to give different answers, and if you ask good questions that no one has asked before, that's a good place to start. Qian Yingyi: There are two main points here. One is to ask good questions, and the other is to look for areas that aren't of interest to many people but that you really want to explore. Peter · Thiel: We often even get embarrassed to ask good questions because we often think that these questions are stupid, or must have been asked by someone else, and I must have missed something to ask these stupid questions. We all have this sense of shame – when we hear something we don't understand, we think, am I a little stupid to not understand? So don't ask questions. Maybe it's not really anything, it's just a little more complicated, and you just need to ask a simple question and you'll find that it's not difficult at all. So I think, sometimes, it's actually hard to ask questions that seem clumsy. Qian Yingyi: Then I'm curious, how did you develop the method of asking questions and developing this method of reverse thinking? You studied 20th Century Philosophy at Stanford and received your J.D. from Stanford Law School. So, how do philosophy and law help you develop reverse thinking, or do they not actually help you develop reverse thinking? Peter · Thiel: I've always been curious about how ideas fit together and how they fit into the whole. Although many things in philosophy are not very practical, one good exercise is to ask about the interconnectedness of things. I love talking to my friends and I'm interested in all kinds of topics, which naturally inspires. United States the past 20-25 years, we have experienced large-scale irrational behaviors and very strange phenomena on the psychological level: in the 90s of the 20th century, we experienced a crazy Internet bubble; At the beginning of the 21st century, there was a crazy real estate and financial bubble. So it's important to look back and keep a little distance and some criticism from these things. Yingyi Qian: You created a technology company, and you have invested in a lot of other technology companies. You studied philosophy as a bachelor's degree, and you studied law as a graduate student, but have you ever taken engineering or science courses? Peter · Thiel: I did a lot of science courses, such as calculus, and I wanted to study biotechnology at the time. But I thought biotechnology was a little different from what I thought. Let's say, when it comes to mass spectrometry of organisms, and so on. But there are some law courses that talk about these science things, in the '80s, when Stanford and Silicon Valley weren't really as close as they are now, they were very close geographically, but at Stanford, we didn't really know about Silicon Valley, even though it was only a wall. At that time, Silicon Valley already existed, but it didn't have a lot of influence among our students at that time, and not many students said that they were going to drop out of school to start a business, which was not common at all in the 80s. Now Stanford's reputation is entrepreneurship and innovation. But at that time, perhaps everyone was more concerned about doing investment banking and doing the financial industry. This is a very interesting phenomenon. There has been such a change in 20 years, especially after 2008, and the change has been particularly rapid. In the last seven or eight years, this has changed more and more rapidly, and the students who used to be very enthusiastic about finance are now not so enthusiastic about the financial industry. Qian Yingyi: Should I say that this is not only Silicon Valley, but also the whole United States and the world? Peter · Thiel: Yes, culturally so. In the 80s, 90s and early 21st century, New York was a place that all young people wanted to visit, and it was arguably the most exciting city in the world. Now that kind of center has moved from New York to Silicon Valley. Especially from a university perspective, although they don't want me to talk about it, a lot of students transfer from Harvard to Stanford. People at Harvard would be upset to hear me say that, but the Harvard teacher asked me, "What do you think of us?" What do people in Silicon Valley think of us? This kind of question might not have been asked at all 10 years ago, but they are asking it now. Qian Yingyi: You have a good friend Elon Musk, who was also here last October, and he talked about the first principles of physics to help him think. Can you tell us about a class at Stanford that you yourself feel has had the most impact? Peter · Thiel: I think I took a philosophy course in my sophomore year. I was the same year as Reid · Hoffman. We were going to write an essay, and after that, the teacher graded us and told us to write it again. This is a very rare way, because we are used to writing essays or articles, but this time it is different. I wrote the best essay in this course, but after submitting it, the teacher changed it a lot, saying that it was just a draft. So this kind of course is a very interesting experience for me. One of the aspects that I find very rewarding in Silicon Valley is writing. If we can write a good article, whether it is scientific, technical, or innovative, if you can write a good article, in fact, you don't need to be a writer, or a novelist, basically a little better than ordinary people, then you are a good highlight. You will be able to gain the attention of others, and you will be able to gain the favor of others. It should be said that the most successful VCs of the past 10 years have all written long-form blogs before. If you can write well, it should be said that Silicon Valley is a good stepping stone. Qian Yingyi: Very interesting. I'm curious, can you remember what your sophomore philosophy class was all about? What did you learn? Has it affected you over the past few years? Peter · Thiel: The issues we talk about in philosophy class are very big, very big. And at that time, we were also talking about the contradictions in the free world. I still remember that the second time I wrote my dissertation, I wrote: free will and determinism cannot both be true at the same time, there may be one right and one wrong, but it is also possible that both are wrong, and there is such a possibility. Qian Yingyi: When we talk about free will and determinism, it seems that we can go back to the quantum mechanics we just talked about. This question has not been explored enough. Peter · Thiel: Very good, you think very thoroughly. We can apply the principles of physics to philosophy, and in this case we may be able to acquire some new ideas. Qian Yingyi: He (Musk) shouldn't know as much about philosophy as you, right? Peter · Thiel: Although he is very versatile, he is not so good at philosophy.
Contrarian investment: SpaceX and clean energy technology Yingyi Qian: I want to go back to contrarian thinking. I wanted to be more specific about how contrarian thinking can help you in your investment decisions. Aside from Facebook, can you give us some examples of this? When is there a time when no one really wants to invest but you? When did many people want to vote, but you refuse? Peter · Thiel: A more dramatic example than Facebook is when we first invested in Musk's SpaceX in the summer of 2008, we got emails where they said, "We're so glad we didn't put money at you, that's stupid." "It's not common for potential investors to send such emails. Investing in SpaceX looks very strange, the main question is: this is not IT, do you have any experience with investing in rocket companies? It's too risky. But if you think about it, SpaceX's business model is actually pretty good, because people pay upfront to buy rockets, so relatively speaking, once the project is launched, it's a positive cash flow business. And Elon is competing with very old aerospace conglomerates, such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin· Inc. No new rocket companies have appeared for 40 years, and it is clear that this is an area that no one understands. So we don't need to be very good at investing in rocket companies, because at the investment level, absolutely no one competes with us. Everyone thinks they don't have professional knowledge, and so do we, but we can be relatively professional with a little bit of research. There are a lot of things we don't vote for. As a venture capitalist, you always make the mistake of investing in a company that ends up being terrible or missing out on a company that turns out to be great. Between 2005 and 2008, we abandoned the entire category of investments in clean energy technologies. I think clean energy technology is good and important, but the companies are very homogeneous, and there is so much competition for investment in this area that it is detached from the potential business value. At that time, I felt that there was already a bit of a bubble in this field, but it was impossible to ask questions openly, and everyone was very fanatical. Finally the craze ended, and it was fast. Qian Yingyi: So you're glad you didn't vote. Peter · Thiel: At that time. Today, I think that clean energy technology may be an unpopular field worth investing in, but in 2005-2008, it would be right not to invest in clean energy technology. Reverse thinking about innovationQian Yingyi: What do you think is the innovation that has had the greatest impact on human society in the past 40 years? Peter · Thiel: In the last 40 years, the invention of some drugs has been very important. In the past 40 years, innovation has mainly revolved around computers, the Internet, mobile Internet, software, semiconductors, etc., and I think we have made great progress in these areas compared to other fields. There's a big debate: Is innovation accelerating, or is it stagnating? I think it's accelerated in the computer space, while it's relatively stagnant in any other field. Just look at the different meanings of the word "technology" today than it did 50 years ago. Fifty years ago, in 1966, the word "technology" meant rockets, ultra-fast airplanes, the green revolution in agriculture, nuclear power, computers, and everything in between. Today, "technology" generally refers to information technology. We've narrowed down the definition. In the 20s of the 20th century, technology referred to cars, and now we don't associate cars with technology, unless we extend the car to the computer field, such as self-driving cars, which have built-in computing systems. Now, it would be more beneficial to our civilization if there were such advances in other areas. Qian Yingyi: The word "technology" now means information technology. It's interesting. Peter · Thiel: Yes, the truth is, the definition has narrowed. In a sense, this also illustrates the stagnation of innovation. Qian Yingyi: Economists would say that flush toilets are the most influential innovations. Another very important innovation is air conditioning. Without air conditioning, many parts of our world would be unproductive, such as Singapore. Peter · Thiel: About the flush toilet, that's what Robert · Gordon said, and the plumbing system, it's important. Electricity is also very important, especially in winter and summer. Qian Yingyi: A perception problem: because we use mobile phones every day, we feel that technology is changing rapidly, but in fact you don't perceive anything else. Further, economists are more pessimistic because they look at numbers, productivity, and so on. But you're different, you're an entrepreneur, you're in Silicon Valley, and most people in Silicon Valley are very optimistic, and you're an exception. What's your insight? Peter · Thiel: I think one of the challenges in Silicon Valley is that people have a "bullish bias." Because if you start a company, you're saying that the world is getting different; If you're a venture capitalist, you'd say there's so much great technology emerging to invest in. So, people in Silicon Valley naturally have this tendency, and they're going to say, I'm doing a lot of things. Recent history, the great bubble in the technology sector at the end of the 90s of the 20th century, has also exacerbated this tendency. When the bubble burst, people outside Silicon Valley said the Internet was a bubble. When people say that there isn't that much technological innovation, it means they think the company is overvalued. The close link between innovation and company valuation makes Silicon Valleyers very self-protective. In a moderately innovative world, the financial returns can actually be quite substantial, because once you make something new, it's hard for latecomers to catch up. If you create a new search engine like Google, it's hard to make a major innovation in search, and no one can create a search engine that's much better than you. As a result, you have a monopoly on search, powerful, and invincible. Take the disk drive industry in the 80s of the 20th century, for example, you could make the best disk in the world, and two years later someone would make a better one. Your company will be out of business and your investment will be wasted. In 10 years, disk drives have changed dramatically, creating a consumer surplus, but this change has not benefited disk companies. So, an environment where technology is slow-moving is far more profitable than an environment where technology is blowing out. Farmers in times of the Great Famine may be far more profitable than farmers in times of abundance – when food is plentiful, food prices are low. Qian Yingyi: You said that the current trend in United States is that talents are flocking to Silicon Valley and advocating innovation, and I can use specific examples to support your view. Someone compared the options of Harvard Business School and Stanford Graduate School MBA applicants who were admitted to both schools, and in the past two years, Stanford surpassed Harvard for the first time. Peter · Thiel: I'm surprised, it's only been the last year or two. (Excerpted from "Dialogues with Qian Yingyi: Global Dialogues on Creativity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship", by Qian Yingyi, The Commercial Press, 2021, pp. 59-70.) ）