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Entering the second half of 2024, the "price war" of China's automotive industry continues. In this context, BMW took the lead in "not being able to stand it" and announced its withdrawal from the price war, and then Mercedes-Benz and Audi followed suit, stating that they would withdraw from the price war and join the ranks of "volume reduction and price protection". At the same time, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Volvo and other brands have decided to adjust the terminal policy from July, reduce the terminal discount, or no further price reduction.
Among them, BMW, the previous "170,000 BMW i3" was really a price a day, and there were 4S stores that even rose by more than 20,000 yuan in 10 minutes. Some BMW 4S store sales said that the price increase of i3 is a foregone conclusion, and there are very few existing cars, so they basically need to be pre-booked. In the case of price increases, BMW even revealed that some stores refused to deliver the car without adding money.
According to the news on the Internet, from BMW's withdrawal from the price war to the price increase, this "price increase tide" has affected the joint venture brand, and a wave of price increases is brewing in the terminal market.
A Dongfeng Honda salesperson said that it has been brewing a price increase internally recently. "The previous price reduction was a loss to the meat, but this year's price reduction is directly lost to the bones. Now the price system of the whole car market is outrageous, and we may have some preferential recovery from August. ”
A SAIC Volkswagen car salesperson said that the development of the car market this year is completely different from previous years, and from the current point of view, it is uncertain whether prices will rise, but at least there will be no more significant declines.
The sales staff of a Buick 4S store in Shanghai told reporters that many OEMs generally have seasonal breaks in the summer, and there may be production cuts, and the terminal market has been impulsed in June, and the inventory status is also at a low level. In previous years, there was also a situation of "shrinkage" of summer discounts, and the company's failure to follow up the "price war" and the inventory of the terminal also have a certain relationship, and the subsequent price changes are not yet known.
The above-mentioned SAIC Volkswagen sales staff said that other brands were desperately cutting prices before, and it was not possible to sell cars without dropping, but the real situation is that the vast majority of brands in the entire automobile terminal market are in the situation of selling one at a loss. Now that the price of luxury brands has risen, the terminal price of the auto market may stop falling and rise. Some of SAIC Volkswagen's fuel vehicles may be adjusted in the next preferential range.
A Toyota sales staff in Shanghai also revealed that Toyota's current model quotation has been raised to a certain extent, and this week's car purchase can also take the last train of preferential policies, but the possibility of subsequent model price increases is very high.
The above-mentioned sales staff of SAIC Volkswagen said that July ~ August is also the usual off-season for sales, and the order conversion rate is not high. The large discount in June is also for the half-year stage of the sales volume, and in previous years, there will be some weakening of the discount in July. It's just that under this year's "price war", everyone is more sensitive to changes in these preferential policies.
Looking back at the development of the mainland automobile industry from the "joint venture brand brewing price increase tide":
-- Rapid growth in automobile sales
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, vehicle sales in 2021 reached 26.275 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 3.521 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the market penetration rate will reach 13.4%.
-- The passenger car market
Since 2017, the purchase tax incentives have led to sluggish growth in production and sales. In 2018, China's passenger car market experienced negative growth in both production and sales for the first time. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the annual production of passenger cars in mainland China reached 19.994 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; Sales volume was 20.178 million units, down 5.9% year-on-year.
In 2021, China's passenger car production and sales were 21.408 million units and 21.482 million units, respectively, an increase of 7.1% and 6.5% from 2020, ending a three-year downward trend since 2018. From January to November 2022, China's passenger vehicle production and sales reached 21.702 million units and 21.292 million units, up 14.7% and 11.5% y/y, respectively, with the cumulative growth slowing down.
Although China's automotive industry has entered the stock market, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China have also continued to grow from 2019 to 2022 thanks to the internal and external efforts of its own brands and the soaring development of new energy vehicles. From the perspective of sales of new energy passenger vehicles, China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 6.5 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 97.39%, of which 5.013 million pure electric passenger cars and 1.487 million plug-in hybrid passenger cars will be sold. According to the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association, from January to November 2023, China's new energy passenger vehicle sales were 7.777 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%.
Among the passenger cars of all brands, Chinese brand passenger cars performed well, with a total sales of 9.543 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%.
Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the auto price war will ease in the second half of the year, and the relative stability of the price level is conducive to improving consumer expectations.
Zhang Hong, a member of the expert committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that the root cause of the "price war" lies in the imbalance between supply and demand, and such an industrial trend may continue for a period of time and will not improve or end immediately. Therefore, relying on price means to regulate the market may still be the main means of promotion for car companies and merchants in recent years.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said bluntly: "As long as some car companies insist on taking measures to exchange price for volume, it will be difficult to withdraw from the market in a real sense." At least in the next two or three years, the price reduction promotion strategy of the domestic automobile consumer market will be accompanied by it. ”
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
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