Recently, the CEO of lithography machine giant ASML publicly said that for many years, the company did not have to worry about political restrictions on the whereabouts of equipment, but suddenly, this has become one of the most important topics in the world. And the strict chip control regulations in the United States will only force Chinese manufacturers to progress faster.
As said, the extreme suppression of Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea has delayed the breakthrough of the advanced process of domestic chips, but it cannot stop the development of domestic chips. Why?
1. In the first five months, the export of domestic chips increased by 21.2%
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on June 7, 25.27 billion integrated circuits were exported in May this year, with an export value of 12.634 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 28.47%; From January to May, a total of 113.94 billion integrated circuits were exported, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and the cumulative export value was 62.613 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%.
At the same time, 45.65 billion integrated circuits were imported in May, with an import value of US$30.926 billion, and from January to May, a total of 213.65 billion integrated circuits were imported, a year-on-year increase of 14.9 percent, and a cumulative import value of US$148.057 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1 percent.
In addition to the record high exports of integrated circuits, the shipbuilding industry, the automobile industry and the export of mechanical and electrical products are also accelerating; Among them, the shipbuilding industry achieved a year-on-year increase of 57.13% in May, while the cumulative exports in the first five months doubled, an increase of 100. 1%。
The rapid growth of exports from the domestic chip industry, shipbuilding industry and automobile industry shows that China's economic transformation and upgrading have achieved initial success. At the same time, it proves that after more than 4 years of extreme suppression of chips, and with the support of ultra-large-scale industrial applications, domestic chips have initially achieved independence, especially the export of low-end chips has increased significantly, marking the transformation from dependence on imports to independent supply.
2. China, the world's largest wafer production capacity
Recently, according to the "2024 Global Wafer Capacity Report" released by Knometa Research, it is expected that by 2026, the wafer capacity of integrated circuit production will increase by an average of 7.1% per year. Among them, Chinese mainland's production capacity accounts for about 19.1% of the world's total. With the fab construction and expansion plan, Chinese mainland is expected to surpass South Korea and Taiwan with 22.3% of production capacity by 2026, becoming the world's largest source of integrated circuit wafer production capacity.
At the same time, according to the statistics of the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), from 2022 to 2024, the global semiconductor industry plans to have 82 new facilities put into operation, of which 11 and 42 will be put into operation in 2023 and 2024 respectively, covering production lines from 4-inch (100mm) to 12-inch (300mm) wafers.
At the same time, SEMI expects Chinese mainland chipmakers to start operating 18 projects in 2024, and production capacity will increase by 13% from 7.6 million wafers per month in 2023 to 8.6 million wafers per month in 2024. In other words, the fabs that will start operations in 2024 will account for more than 42% of the world's total.
As mentioned above, by concentrating on increasing the production capacity of traditional chips, it will not only meet the industrial needs of the domestic market, but also rapidly expand China's market share in the global market.
3. Domestic chips account for more than 30% of the global share
Dominated by non-market factors, governments around the world are spending money on subsidies to expand chip production capacity, but the capacity needs to be consumed by downstream industries. According to the latest data from Guolian Securities on June 1, China's semiconductor sales account for about 30% of the world's total; With the gradual increase in sales, the proportion also has a slow upward trend, accounting for 30.8% as of March.
As the world's largest manufacturing center, China is the world's largest, most complete category, and most complete supply chain of electronic consumer manufacturing and consumption countries. Taking the familiar mobile phone as an example, according to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the mainland will produce 1.57 billion mobile phones in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, of which 1.14 billion smartphones will be produced (mobile phone production includes unshipped and the inventory of various mobile phone manufacturers. ), a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. According to TechInsights data, global smartphone shipments for the full year of 2023 fell by 3.8% year-on-year to 1,152.2 million units.
This means that with the gradual enrichment of the application coverage of the downstream industries of the domestic semiconductor industry, the market share of domestic chips in the world is expected to further increase. The increase in the market share of domestic chips will surely drive the rise of domestic wafer foundries and expand the right to speak in the field of chip manufacturing, thereby further driving the breakthrough and development of the domestic semiconductor industry as a whole.
Therefore, with the recovery of downstream industrial applications, driven by strong market demand, the export of domestic chips will be further amplified, which not only indicates the rebirth of the domestic semiconductor industry, but also will play a greater role in the global semiconductor industry; It is also a clear proof of the collective breakthrough of China's high-tech industry, and even means the perfect display of the phased achievements of China's economic transformation and upgrading.