Can the "combination boxing" of the new deal of the property market be powerful?

　This newspaper reported that the blockbuster new real estate policies have been introduced one after another, and the support is unprecedented.

　　In order to reverse the continued downturn in the real estate market, last Friday, the financial regulator "issued three arrows" to adjust the personal housing loan policy, the main content of which includes the cancellation of the lower limit of the first and second home loan interest rate policy at the national level, the reduction of the minimum down payment ratio of the first and second home loans, and the reduction of the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate.

　　So, what are the highlights of the attractive new real estate deal? What signal does this policy "combination fist" release?

The central bank's housing loan policy "three consecutive issuances"

　　This set of policy "combination punches" not only reflects the central bank's precise regulation and control of the real estate market, but also demonstrates its determination to help the stable development of the economy and meet the needs of residents for rigid housing and diversified improved housing.

　　First of all, the removal of the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second homes at the national level will help reduce the cost of buying a house and stimulate market demand. At the same time, the policy gives the power of regulation to the local government, which means that each region can flexibly adjust the mortgage interest rate according to the actual situation of its own real estate market, which will help to achieve more precise regulation and control, and can also avoid the market volatility and risks that may be brought about by the "one-size-fits-all" policy to a certain extent.

　　Secondly, the reduction of the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will bring real benefits to depositors. Taking a personal housing loan of 1 million yuan with a term of 30 years as an example, if you choose the equal principal and interest repayment method, the monthly payment will be reduced from 4270.16 yuan to 4135.57 yuan, and the total interest expense will be reduced by 485000 yuan. This adjustment further reduces the cost of borrowing for homebuyers.

　　Thirdly, the adjustment of the minimum down payment ratio of personal housing loans is the biggest highlight of the "three consecutive issuance" policy. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced at the State Council's regular policy briefing that it plans to set up affordable housing re-loans to support local governments in acquiring unsold commercial housing at reasonable prices for affordable housing. The policy has aroused great concern in the market.

　　Tao Ling, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the regular policy briefing of the State Council on the same day that the People's Bank of China has stepped up its efforts to conscientiously implement it, and based on the central bank's monetary policy and macro-prudential management functions, it has launched the following four policy measures: First, set up a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing. The second is to reduce the minimum down payment ratio of personal housing loans at the national level, adjusting the minimum down payment ratio for the first home from no less than 20% to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second home from no less than 30% to not less than 25%. The third is to cancel the lower limit of the interest rate policy for personal housing loans at the national level. Fourth, the interest rate of housing provident fund loans of various maturities was lowered by 0.25 percentage points.

　　Tao Ling said that as a newly created structural monetary policy tool, in accordance with the idea of "government-led and market-oriented operation", the People's Bank of China will provide low-cost re-lending funds, and encourage 21 national banking institutions to issue loans to local state-owned enterprises selected by the city government in accordance with the principle of marketization, and support the acquisition of completed and unsold commercial housing at a reasonable price for use as affordable housing.

　　According to Tao Ling, the scale of affordable housing refinancing is 300 billion yuan, the interest rate is 1.75%, the term is 1 year, and the term can be extended 4 times. The recipients include 21 national banks, including the China Development Bank, policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, postal savings banks, and joint-stock commercial banks. Banks issue loans in accordance with the principle of independent decision-making and assumption of risk. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) will issue re-loans at 60% of the loan principal, which can drive bank loans of 500 billion yuan.

　　The last time the mortgage down payment ratio was adjusted in August 2023, when the down payment ratio was adjusted to no less than 20% for the first home and no less than 30% for the second home.

　　"This unified reduction of 5 percentage points will help further lower the threshold for residents to buy houses and release the potential of residents' housing purchases. In accordance with the principle of city-specific policies, combined with the local real estate market situation and regulatory needs, all localities still independently and reasonably determine the lower limit of the local down payment ratio policy. On the basis of the lower limit of local policies, the bank independently determines the specific down payment ratio of each loan according to the specific situation of the customer. The head of the relevant department of the central bank said.

　　At the same time, the central bank announced that since May 18, the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85% respectively, and the interest rate of the second set of personal housing provident fund loans will be adjusted to no less than 2.775% and 3.325% respectively.

　　This is the first time in a year and a half that the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans was lowered by 0.15 percentage points on October 1, 2022.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said that the adjusted mortgage down payment ratio is the lowest level in history, indicating that the national level attaches great importance to destocking and supporting reasonable housing consumption demand, which is of great significance for the rapid and large-scale release of rigid demand and improved housing.

　　Coupled with the reduction of provident fund interest rates, Yan Yuejin expects that this will have a positive effect on the subsequent application of provident fund loans in various places, the reduction of housing purchase costs, and the support for housing consumption. In the future, the house purchase model of "low down payment + low commercial loan interest rate + low provident fund interest rate" will be formed, which will help the real estate sales market to be active this year and comprehensively promote the recovery of the real estate market.

　　Some experts said that it is expected that the new policy will drive the vast majority of cities to cancel the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, and the mortgage interest rates and the burden on home buyers will be significantly reduced. According to industry estimates, after the policy is implemented, the mortgage interest rate in most cities may drop by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, and the total interest expense can be reduced by more than 70,000 yuan according to the calculation of the loan of 1 million yuan and the equal principal and interest repayment method of 30 years. Market participants further estimate that the interest expense of improving demand housing will be reduced even more.

　　So, what are the implications for banks? According to industry experts, banks can maintain sound operations by "making up prices by volume". In the future, housing loans will still be the best quality assets of banks, and it is expected that the implementation of the policy will lead to an increase in the number of new housing loans issued by banks, which can make up for the reduction in interest income from the decline in interest rates to a certain extent.

Agency: This policy directly hits the current policy blockage

　　Analysts pointed out that the above-mentioned policy "combination punch" has released a strong signal to support the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry, which will help solve the liquidity problem at both ends of real estate supply and demand, and provide a good economic foundation and macro environment for accelerating structural reform and developing new quality productivity with time for space.

　　They also said that although the initial scale of the storage is small, and there is a large gap between the actual amount of funds required, the effect may be immediate. In the future, it is not excluded that the government will continue to adjust the policy intensity after evaluating the actual effect of this round of "combination punches".

　　Zheshang Securities believes that the policy "combination punch" can effectively solve the liquidity problem at both ends of real estate supply and demand, and help real estate investment and housing sales to stabilize, so as to achieve three policy goals.

　　Specifically, the first is to stabilize housing prices and effectively prevent housing prices from falling sharply; The second is to effectively drive the post-cycle consumption of real estate, and leverage the "old for new" consumer goods with the "old for new" of real estate. Third, it can cooperate with credit expansion to boost M2 (broad money), and Tao Ling, deputy governor of the central bank, also pointed out at the briefing that "300 billion yuan of affordable housing relending is expected to drive bank loans of 500 billion yuan".

　　This policy optimization directly hits the "blocking point" of the current real estate policy, and truly "reduces the burden" on the balance sheets of residents and real estate enterprises through the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. On the residential side, on the one hand, the liquidity of residents' inventory of second-hand houses will be increased through "trade-in", and on the other hand, the cost of housing purchase and "capital" requirements will be reduced. On the enterprise side, the liquidity pressure of enterprises will be alleviated through the "collection and storage" of first-hand housing and land inventory, and the relaxation of residents' credit policies will also increase the return of sales funds.