In the development of China's aviation industry, COMAC undoubtedly plays a pivotal role. As the only large-scale passenger aircraft R&D and manufacturing enterprise in China, COMAC shoulders the heavy responsibility of the dream of becoming a civil aviation power. From ARJ21 to C919 and possibly C939, every project movement of COMAC has attracted much attention and expectations.
However, as pointed out in the article, COMAC is currently facing many key issues that need to be solved urgently. Whether it is capacity expansion, technical research or new model planning, COMAC needs to maintain sober judgment and sufficient patience. Trying to be too hasty with the launch of the new C939 model is clearly a haste approach.
At the root of this, the current predicament faced by COMAC reflects some deep-seated contradictions on the development path of China's aviation industry. How to reasonably determine the development priorities within the limited resources and capabilities, and steadily advance step by step, is undoubtedly the key challenge that COMAC must face and solve.
This article intends to discuss in depth the current development dilemma faced by COMAC and the possible way out in the future from three aspects. We hope to contribute to the continuous growth of COMAC and even the entire Chinese civil aviation industry.
1. Capacity bottlenecks and expansion dilemmas
As the only large passenger aircraft manufacturer in China, COMAC undoubtedly shoulders the power of the whole country. Since the first flight of the C919 in 2017, COMAC has been actively promoting capacity expansion to meet the increasing needs of domestic and foreign customers.
Unfortunately, COMAC's current production capacity is far from meeting market expectations. According to statistics, by the end of 2021, the cumulative number of orders received for C919 reached 780, but the actual delivery volume was only 13. This means that COMAC has a delivery capacity of less than 100 aircraft per year.
You must know that as the main model of short and medium range, C919 should be delivered more than 300 aircraft per year in order to truly meet market demand. This is far from the actual production capacity of COMAC at present, showing a serious capacity bottleneck.
What is the crux of the capacity bottleneck? The main aspects are as follows:
The supply capacity of core components is insufficient. As a large passenger aircraft, the C919 involves a large number of parts and components, and the requirements for manufacturing precision and quality are extremely high. However, the technical level and production capacity of relevant domestic supporting enterprises are far from reaching the level of supporting large-scale mass production. This has resulted in a severe shortage of key components.
The efficiency of the production line needs to be improved. The existing production line layout and process flow of COMAC still have the problem of low efficiency. From raw material procurement, parts assembly to final assembly testing, all links need to be further optimized and improved.
Complex supply chain management. As a large passenger aircraft with tens of thousands of parts, the supply chain management of the C919 is undoubtedly extremely complex. Coordinating thousands of suppliers to ensure the efficient flow of materials and information is a huge system project.
There is a shortage of technical talent. Aerospace manufacturing involves many high-precision technologies, and the demand for talent is extremely demanding. However, COMAC is still facing a serious shortage of technical talents, which restricts the improvement of production efficiency to a certain extent.
In order to break through the bottleneck of production capacity, COMAC must fundamentally solve the above problems. This not only requires a large amount of capital investment, but also requires the full cooperation of the whole industry chain. Only by making breakthroughs in the supply of core components, production line optimization, and supply chain management can COMAC truly achieve a significant increase in production capacity.
Obviously, in this context, it is difficult for COMAC to quickly launch the new C939 model in the short term. Even if there is a preliminary conceptual design, it must be carefully considered so that the launch of new projects does not affect the progress of key projects such as the current C919.
Second, the technical research and development of new models
In addition to capacity bottlenecks, technological innovation has always been another major challenge for COMAC. From ARJ21 to C919 to possibly C939, the research and development of each new model requires COMAC to go through a long and arduous process of technical research.
Taking C919 as an example, as the first large trunk airliner in China, it involves a lot of cutting-edge technological innovation in many fields such as structural design, system integration, and composite material application. This makes the research and development process of C919 very tested, and it also faced a phased technical bottleneck.
And for the upcoming C939 project, the difficulty of technological innovation may be even higher. As a wide-body passenger aircraft, the C939 will have higher technical requirements in terms of fuselage design, tail layout, engine selection, etc. At the same time, it requires new technological breakthroughs in terms of noise, fuel efficiency, cabin comfort, and more.
More importantly, the development of C939 also needs to fully absorb the lessons learned from previous projects such as C919 and even ARJ21. For example, the latest progress in the fields of airborne system integration and composite material application all require the C939 project team to effectively inherit and innovate. Only in this way can we ensure that the technical level of C939 can be among the international advanced ranks.
Obviously, for an enterprise that has just entered the field of large passenger aircraft development, these technical research tasks are undoubtedly arduous and complex. If COMAC hastily launches the C939 project when the C919 has not yet completely overcome the technical difficulties, it is likely to fall into the dilemma of "overestimating the ability and biting the ear".
Undoubtedly, technological innovation is always the biggest challenge on the way forward for COMAC. If it cannot make a solid technological breakthrough in the current C919 and future C939 and other models, it will be difficult for COMAC to occupy a favorable position in the fierce international market competition. Therefore, COMAC should be cautious in investing in new projects, concentrate limited resources, and go all out to complete the current technical research tasks.
3. Product strategy and market positioning
In addition to capacity expansion and technological innovation, COMAC also faces many challenges in determining future product strategies and market positioning.
The first is the complexity of model planning. Since the 80s of the last century, China has been trying to independently develop civilian airliners, from the Y10, which has never been mass-produced, to the current ARJ21 and C919. In this process, COMAC had to constantly adjust the model planning according to the changes in market demand, such as the number of seats in the C919 increased from 150 to 174.
It can be said that in the changing market environment, it is a complex system project to determine the positioning of a model that meets the needs of potential customers. It is necessary to consider both short-term needs and long-term trends; It is necessary to meet both domestic demand and the international market. This poses a great test to COMAC's ability to formulate product strategy.
The second is the competitive pressure with international counterparts. As the pioneering work of domestic large passenger aircraft, C919 has made up for the "shortcomings" of China's civil aviation industry to a certain extent. However, compared with the world's aviation giants such as Boeing and Airbus, C919 still has a big gap in terms of technical level, product performance and market influence.
This requires COMAC to continuously narrow the gap with its international counterparts in future model planning. For example, it will catch up and surpass key indicators such as fuel consumption, noise, and passenger capacity, so as to enhance the market competitiveness of C919 and future new models.
At the same time, COMAC also needs to better grasp the changes in demand in domestic and foreign markets. Taking C939 as an example, if it is not properly positioned, it is likely to face the problem of overlapping with C919's own market. Therefore, COMAC must carefully assess the current market absorption capacity of C919, accurately locate the target customer group of C939, and avoid falling into the dilemma of homogeneous competition.
To sum up, in the face of multiple challenges such as capacity bottlenecks, technological innovation and product positioning, COMAC should indeed not start the C939 project in a hurry. Instead, we should concentrate limited resources, solve the current production bottleneck of C919 step by step, and continue to promote technological innovation to consolidate core competitiveness.
Only in this way can COMAC lay a solid foundation for the research and development of new models in the future. After all, in the highly competitive field of aviation manufacturing, steady and gradual progress is the right path to success.
At present, China's aviation industry is in a critical historical period. The successful first flight of the C919 marks a new era in the mainland's civil aviation manufacturing industry. As the only large-scale passenger aircraft R&D and manufacturing enterprise in China, COMAC shoulders the important task of realizing the dream of becoming a civil aviation power.
Let us all hope that in the near future, COMAC will be able to overcome the current difficulties and continue to launch a new generation of domestic large passenger aircraft that meets the market demand and has leading technology, so as to contribute to the rise of China's aviation industry.