"Humanoid robots are expected to become disruptive products after computers, smart phones, and new energy vehicles, which will profoundly change the production and lifestyle of human beings." The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's previously issued "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots" wrote at the beginning.
Recently, Tesla released a video of its humanoid robot Optimus (Optimus) "working" in its own factory, which attracted attention. In the video, the Optimus Prime robot takes the battery and puts it in the battery slot and arranges it neatly.
In February this year, the domestic humanoid robot Walker S has entered the new energy vehicle factory and started a "part-time career". On the assembly line, it can work with humans to complete car assembly and quality inspection operations.
At the end of April, the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center released the world's first full-scale humanoid robot "Tiangong" with pure electric drive for humanoid running, which can run stably at a speed of 6 km/h.
Humanoid robots are accelerating from sci-fi to reality, but many people are still unfamiliar with them. What is a Humanoid Robot? Where are humanoid robots used, and are they easy to use? How is the development of humanoid robots in mainland China?
01
What is a Humanoid Robot?
Equip the smart "mind" of artificial intelligence with a "body"
At present, artificial intelligence is on the way to general intelligence, and large models demonstrate the ability to interact with human needs. In order to interact with artificial intelligence in the real physical world, it is necessary for artificial intelligence to have an intelligent hardware carrier, so that they can perceive, think and act like humans.
In layman's terms, it is to put a "body" on the intelligent "mind" of artificial intelligence. This "body" can be a mobile phone, it can be a self-driving car, and the humanoid robot is a carrier that integrates various core cutting-edge technologies and is a representative product of embodied intelligence.
Humanoid robots themselves are not a new thing, its research and development began in the seventies and eighties of the last century, but because the traditional robot control technology and algorithms are difficult to meet the complex technical requirements of humanoid robots, it has been difficult to apply.
Tan Min, the relevant person in charge of UBTECH, a humanoid robot company, said that the development of artificial intelligence in this round means that the possibility of realizing the truly intelligent robots that everyone sees in imagination or science fiction movies is no longer far in the future, but close at hand.
Specifically, the development of artificial intelligence technology can help humanoid robots understand human language more accurately, listen to human instructions, recognize environmental information, and make more reasonable decisions and actions. For example, the Q series humanoid robot designed and developed by the Institute of Automation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, when you say to it to pick up a vegetable with the highest starch content from the table, it can accurately select potatoes from many vegetables and put them in the basket.
Wang Xingxing, founder of Unitree Technology, a humanoid robot company, introduced that traditional robots basically complete specific tasks according to programs written by people, which is exclusive, that is to say, a robot can only do one thing. AI-driven humanoid robots, on the other hand, are more intelligent and can perform tasks in a variety of scenarios, greatly improving versatility.
02
Why do you have to be humanoid?
Better adaptation, more tools, and true versatility
Artificial intelligence has such a smart brain, why don't we equip it with a more powerful body, why do we want to make it humanoid? For example, the rollers are much faster than the legs.
The world in which human beings live today has been made suitable for human work and life, and all the tools are designed for human beings. It's true that the wheels are faster than the legs, but what about the steps? In order to use the robot, a ramp is laid at all steps, which is obviously unlikely.
Therefore, only by designing the robot to look like a human and have the ability to move a human can the robot better adapt to the environment and control more tools, so as to be truly versatile. There is also a psychological factor involved, and humans naturally feel more intimate with the human form.
03
Where are humanoid robots used?
Industrial manufacturing, commercial services, and family companionship are the three major application scenarios at present
When will we be able to use humanoid robots?
UBTECH Walker S, Unitree H1, CloudMinds XR-4, Xpeng PX5, Zhiyuan Expedition A1, Fourier GR-1, Xingdong Era "Little Star", Chase Power CL-1, Xiaomi CyberOne...... Are these names full of technology? These are all humanoid robots launched by domestic enterprises.
Industry insiders said that at present, humanoid robots are at a critical juncture from the laboratory to industrialization, and 2024 is expected to become the first year of mass production of humanoid robots.
At present, the products of many humanoid robot companies in mainland China have begun to be produced and delivered in small batches, and the customers are mainly university research institutions, artificial intelligence enterprises and intelligent manufacturing enterprises, and some humanoid robots have been commercialized in industrial manufacturing scenarios and commercial service scenarios. In February this year, the domestic humanoid robot Walker S has begun to work in the new energy vehicle factory for "practical training". It is the world's first humanoid robot to collaborate with humans on the assembly line of an automobile factory to complete automobile assembly and quality inspection operations.
Why not use an industrial robotic arm to do all of this? In fact, with the overall improvement of the automation level of intelligent manufacturing, many process links on the assembly line have been completed by industrial robotic arms, but there are still many tasks that need to be completed manually.
Taking the automobile industry as an example, in the detection link, it is necessary to manually bend down into the car to complete the inspection of seat belts, open parts and other work, these work robotic arms can not be done temporarily, and are currently completed by manual work, and can be handed over to humanoid robots in the future.
UBTECH CEO Zhou Jian has publicly stated that industrial manufacturing, commercial services and home companionship are the three major application scenarios of humanoid robots.
Among them, the more complex environment of home and business scenarios and the flexible and diverse human-computer interaction needs make the large-scale commercialization of humanoid robots uncertain. However, in the field of industrial manufacturing, it has a good commercial foundation, and intelligent manufacturing will become the first large-scale application field of humanoid robots, and industrial humanoid robots are expected to be large-scale within three years.
Wang Xingxing believes that the application scenarios of humanoid robots can be divided into short-term, medium-term and long-term perspectives. In the short term, it is mainly the production and assembly in the factory; In the medium term, it will be extended to households, agriculture, construction sites and other scenarios; In the long run, it can be understood that everything can be done by humanoid robots.
The first step in the application of humanoid robots is to enter thousands of industries, which is already in progress, and is expected to enter thousands of households in the near future.
According to relevant experts from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, on the one hand, the problem of population aging in the mainland is gradually emerging, and in the long run, the supply of labor is insufficient, and humanoid robots are needed to supplement the gap. On the other hand, there is a need for humanoid robots to replace work in harsh environments or repetitive, heavy, and dangerous work.
Will robots take away human jobs?
Tan Min believes that "humanoid robots are not robbing humans of jobs, but replacing humans to do those dangerous, boring, and hard jobs that humans don't want to do." The productivity revolution will also create a plethora of never-before-seen job opportunities, allowing more people to do more creative work. ”
04
Are humanoid robots any good?
Robot large model AI technology will make significant progress in 3-5 years
The application scenarios of humanoid robots are very broad, but it is slow and slightly clumsy, is humanoid robots really easy to use?
Wang Xingxing said that before the emergence of ChatGPT, everyone also felt that AI was not intelligent enough to do anything, which is somewhat similar to the current state of humanoid robots, and many people think that humanoid robots have limited functions and are expensive. But in fact, the humanoid robot is only a little ignited, which is the critical point of the breakthrough of AI technology of the large model of the robot. Of course, it will take some time for the progress of AI technology for large robot models and the industrial deployment of humanoid robots, and it will take 3 to 5 years to make significant progress if it is fast, and it will not exceed 10 years if it is slow. "In 10 years, it will be upside down." He stressed.
Tan Min, the relevant person in charge of UBTECH, also said that you don't have to worry about an innovative product that may be slightly clumsy or have limited application scenarios at the beginning. From the advent of smartphones to universal application, it only took more than a dozen years. At present, the development of humanoid robots is also ushering in its own "iPhone moment", artificial intelligence technology is moving towards the key node of general artificial intelligence breakthroughs, and humanoid robots are also developing at an unconventional acceleration, and it is expected that there will be very common applications between 10 and 20 years.
If humanoid robots will be widely used in our lives, price will naturally be a matter of great concern to everyone.
Previously, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that humanoid robots are expected to become popular devices, and the manufacturing cost is expected to be much lower than people expected, and the price may not exceed $10,000-20,000, which is comparable to the current price of cheap cars. Musk has also said that Tesla's humanoid robots could cost less than $20,000.
A number of domestic humanoid robot companies also expect that after the market matures in the future, the price of humanoid robots may range from tens of thousands of yuan to hundreds of thousands of yuan.
05
How is the development of humanoid robots in mainland China?
Hardware manufacturing is a strong point, and the pool of computing chips and AI talents needs to be replenished
The "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2023 will plan and deploy the development of humanoid robots for the first time in the form of a separate document. Taking 2025 as the time node, many clear goals have been put forward - in terms of technology, a number of key technologies such as "brain, cerebellum, and limbs" have made breakthroughs to ensure the safe and effective supply of core components. In terms of application, the whole machine product has reached the international advanced level, and has achieved mass production, and has been demonstrated and applied in special, manufacturing, people's livelihood services and other scenarios.
What is the current development of humanoid robots in mainland China and what level is it in the world?
A humanoid robot, with thousands of parts and components and a variety of cutting-edge technologies, is one of the most advanced pieces of hardware produced by humans. Wang Xingxing introduced that a humanoid robot is divided into software and hardware. Hardware is all kinds of commonly used hardware for manufacturing robots, such as controllers, sensors, etc. The software part is more complex, mainly various artificial intelligence models, such as large language models, image diffusion models, etc. The software system is the soul, and the hardware support is the rigid need.
Wang Xingxing believes that at present, there are differences in the technical level of different countries and different companies, but the gap is not particularly large on the whole. Among them, in terms of software, as far as artificial intelligence technology itself is concerned, our gap is not large, but we need to make up for it in terms of computing power chips and AI talent reserves. In terms of hardware, China has more advantages in manufacturing, iteration speed, cost and other aspects.
Many industry insiders also hold a similar view, based on the world's most efficient and largest supply chain system, humanoid robot hardware manufacturing is the mainland's strength.
06
How big is the humanoid robot market?
The market size will reach 2.76 billion yuan this year and is expected to reach 119.246 billion yuan in 2030
In April this year, the first Chinese Humanoid Robot Industry Conference opened in Beijing, and hundreds of enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain competed with the latest products, showing that the industrial chain ecology is improving day by day.
The industry report released by the first Chinese Humanoid Robot Industry Conference predicts that the market size of Chinese humanoid robots will reach 2.76 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to grow into a 100 billion yuan market in 2030, with a market size of 119.246 billion yuan.
The importance of the national strategic level is a strong driving force to lead the accelerated development of the mainland humanoid robot industry. In January this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other 7 departments issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Future Industries", mentioning in the deployment of key tasks that it is necessary to create iconic products and strengthen future high-end equipment. Among them, humanoid robots are in the first place.
The document clearly states that it is necessary to break through the core technologies of robots such as high torque density servo motors, high dynamic motion planning and control, bionic perception and cognition, intelligent dexterous hands, and electronic skins, and focus on promoting the development and application of products in the fields of intelligent manufacturing, home services, and special environmental operations.
07
How far are humanoid robots coming into life?
If you want robots to compete with football stars, you need a lot of investment in scientific research
Despite the surging "wave" of humanoid robots, it is still far from entering everyday life.
"Today, embodied intelligence still faces many challenges, such as the perception of dynamic environments and the use of natural language to communicate with people." Zhang Jianwei, a foreign academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and an academician of the German National Academy of Engineering, said that the development of non-embodied intelligent robots to embodied intelligent robots still requires a lot of scientific research investment.
After the humanoid robot enters the factory to "upgrade", how far is it from becoming a "medical caretaker" or "nanny"? Min Huaqing, executive director of the Expert Committee of the Guangdong Robotics Association and former dean of the School of Software of South China University of Technology, said that from a technical point of view, the humanoid robot is very complex in its perception of the outside world, such as how much force it is to perceive the ground when walking, and the difference between the soft ground and the tile floor makes the research and development of the sensor more complicated.
"In the past, our laboratory had 21 degrees of freedom, and now there are people who can do 26 degrees of freedom, but we have more than 200 joints and joints. If you want to completely simulate all the joints related to motion, it must be much more complex than some of our current service robots or industrial robots. In Min Huaqing's view, the humanoid robot that everyone expects is not a machine that executes programs, but must have a similar thinking to people, and can communicate directly with people without obstacles.
"Twenty years ago, we had the idea of having a team of robots play a friendly match against a football star in the World Cup." Min Huaqing told reporters that there are many application scenarios for humanoid robots, but there are still many problems to be solved from the realization of this idea, such as the weight of energy batteries, visual problems, etc., "With the application of deep learning theory and large models, the realization of this goal will definitely accelerate, but it is difficult to have an accurate judgment on how many years." ”
Industrial layout
What are the advantages of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the competition for the humanoid robot industry?
Humanoid robots have become the focus of a new round of industrial scientific and technological revolution. Humanoid robots independently developed by enterprises are emerging in an endless stream, application scenarios are becoming more and more abundant, and support at the policy level is also in place.
Since 2023, the governments of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Anhui, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places have supported the development of the local humanoid robot industry by formulating targeted policies and measures. The "Action Plan for Cultivating Strategic Emerging Industrial Clusters of Intelligent Robots in Guangdong Province (2023-2025)" mentions that enterprises will be supported to increase the research and development of humanoid robots in intelligent algorithms, joint design, stable balance control and other technologies, and improve the application field of humanoid robots.
In February this year, Guangdong released the cultivation plan of five future industrial clusters, and humanoid robots were impressively listed, which proposed the implementation of the "humanoid robot project", and strive to initially establish a humanoid robot innovation system within 2-3 years, and make breakthroughs in key technologies such as "brain, cerebellum, and limbs", and the safe supply of core components. Promote the research of key core technologies such as humanoid robots, embodied intelligent models, and basic components; strengthen the support of innovation platforms and strive to create a national-level innovation platform; For typical scenarios such as industrial manufacturing and housekeeping services, accelerate the demonstration and promotion of humanoid robot applications.
At the municipal level, the Action Plan for Accelerating the High-quality Development and High-level Application of Artificial Intelligence in Shenzhen (2023-2024) proposes to carry out the research and development and application of general-purpose embodied intelligent robots, and encourage enterprises to rely on Hetao, Qianhai or overseas R&D centers to actively expand the international market and carry out large-scale applications of humanoid robots.
According to the "2023 Shenzhen Robot Industry Development White Paper", the total output value of Shenzhen's robot industry chain reached 179.7 billion yuan last year, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, of which Nanshan District had the highest output value, accounting for 35.01% of the city's total.
In 2023, the "Foshan Robot and Related Industry Development Plan (2023-2030)" and "Several Measures to Support the Development of Intelligent Robot Industry in Dongguan City" have been released one after another, all of which have laid out humanoid robots. According to incomplete statistics, at least three of the nine cities in the Greater Bay Area have issued targeted policy documents.
It is understood that for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, each link of the humanoid robot chain is deeply embedded in its industrial pattern and application scenarios, especially as one of the predecessors of the humanoid machine, the annual output of industrial robots has reached 168,800 units (sets), accounting for one-third of the country, and the foundation of advantages has been laid.
The development of the artificial intelligence industry that supports the operation of the "brain" of humanoid robots in the Greater Bay Area has advanced by leaps and bounds, with an industrial scale of more than 150 billion yuan, with core enterprises accounting for a quarter of the country's total, and more than 12.9% of the country's large models.
Up to now, there are 39 humanoid robot-related enterprises in Guangdong Province, ranking first in the country.
Today, humanoid robots are still standing in the early stage of industrialization, and with their in-depth development, all localities will continue to increase their efforts.
Integration: Huang Yalan
Source: CCTV News, Nanfang +, 21st Century Business Herald, People's Information, Yangcheng Evening News