Obstruction of China? What it means for Tuvalu and Australia to agree on the launch of a security treaty in 2024

On May 9, local time, during the visit to Tuvalu by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Senator and Foreign Minister of the opposition Shadow Cabinet Simon Birmingham, Australia and Tutu issued a joint statement saying that the two sides have agreed to enter into force as soon as possible in 2024 "a landmark" climate and security treaty, that is, the "Farrapili Union Treaty" signed in November 2023.

The treaty has three components: climate change, movement of people, and defense security. Under the treaty, Australia will provide "climate asylum" to Tuvaluan citizens, enabling up to 280 Tuvaluan citizens to obtain "special visas to live, work and study in Australia" each year.

Australia has pledged to provide assistance to Tuvalu in the event of a threat of natural disasters, public health epidemics and "military aggression". In addition, Australia will provide an additional 16.9 million Australian dollars (about 78.32 million yuan) for the coastal improvement project in Tuvalu for the expansion of the latter's main island, Funafuti. In return, Australia can veto Tuvalu's defence and security agreements with any other country.

What's the purpose?

First, Australia intends to increase its influence in Tuvalu through significant financial assistance.

On May 8, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said during his visit to Tuvalu that Australia has pledged A$110 million (US$72.27 million) of its national budget to Tuvalu, including A$50 million for the construction of Tuvalu's first submarine communications cable to connect Tuvalu to the global communications service system, A$19 million for a land reclamation project to strengthen Tuvalu's coastline from flooding due to rising sea levels, A$15 million for the construction of a national security cooperation centre, and A$10 million for direct budget support. The new grant commitment will be a significant addition to Australia's $17 million to Tuvalu in 2023-2024.

Some analysts pointed out that with the intensification of the rivalry between China and the West in the Indo-Pacific region, both sides continue to launch a charm offensive against the Pacific island countries, and Australia's promise of huge financial assistance is out of geopolitical considerations, aiming to consolidate Australia's position in Tuvalu, because Australia believes that the region is its traditional sphere of influence, and its partnership with its Pacific neighbors is vital to Australia's security and the security and prosperity of the entire region, and the "Farrapili Alliance" will be related to their so-called "collective sovereignty".

But Tuvalu has doubts and concerns about the treaty with Australia. The treaty provides that Tuvalu must "agree" with Australia on any security or defence agreements with other countries. The treaty also allows Australia to review Tuvalu's agreements with third countries in a wide range of security areas, from ports to telecommunications.

The clause drew criticism from some politicians in Tuvalu, including former Tuvalu Prime Minister and opposition MP Sobengaar, who accused Australia of undermining the country's sovereignty, arguing that the treaty could give Australia unconditional access to Tuvalu's territory or airspace, establish a military zone in Tuvalu, and limit Tuvalu's ability to reach diplomatic agreements with other countries.

In response, Australia argued that the treaty would not affect Tuvalu's agreements with other Pacific island countries. If either party considers these demands to be "unreasonable", they may suspend the obligations under the clause or even terminate the treaty by mutual agreement or unilaterally. In addition, the treaty does not restrict Tuvalu's freedom to establish diplomatic relations with other countries.

2. Australia is attempting to obstruct the development of China's relations with Pacific island countries through the treaty.

The treaty comes at a time when China's security ties with Pacific island nations are expanding. The United States and Western countries are increasingly concerned about the deepening of China's security cooperation with Pacific island countries.

With national elections in Tuvalu in January 2024, China's relationship with Pacific countries has become a major topic of contention among the leading candidates. In an effort to enlist Chinese assistance, some candidates argue that Tuvalu should consider severing diplomatic relations with Taiwan, recognizing Chinese mainland instead, and amending Tuvalu's new security agreement with Australia.

On 26 February, Feleti Theo, former Attorney General and Senior Fisheries Officer of Tuvalu, was elected Prime Minister of the new Government. Feleti Theo then announced that he would not change relations with Taiwan and would ratify the Treaty of the Farapili Union, signed by Tuvalu and Australia in November 2023. Some analysts point out that at present, Tuvalu maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but there has been speculation that the country may turn to Chinese mainland in the future. And if the future government of Tuvalu decides to recognise the People's Republic of China and intends to enter into a security or security agreement with China, it is most likely to trigger consultation or a potential veto with Australia.

At the same time, some international experts pointed out that it is not entirely clear whether Australia is simply trying to block any potential security arrangements between Tuvalu and China, or whether the treaty is broader in scope to meet the strategic objectives of Australia's foreign policy and national security communities, which is to obstruct the further development of China's relations with Pacific island countries.

How can we respond?

1. Carry out in-depth cooperation with Pacific island countries on climate issues. Former Tuvalu Prime Minister Natano warned in October 2023 that Tuvalu would be at risk of "disappearing from the face of the earth" unless drastic measures were taken to curb climate change. Like Tuvalu, island nations in the region are facing rising sea levels due to climate change, and the resulting significant economic and social costs. Recommendation: Strengthen cooperation with island countries in the region in the fields of climate change and environmental protection, take the initiative to assume the responsibilities and obligations of climate change, and effectively meet the needs of Pacific island countries for climate change improvement and economic development.

2. Increase support for the construction of disaster prevention and mitigation infrastructure in Tuvalu. In response to Tuvalu's concerns about natural disasters, we have actively sought international assistance to accelerate the establishment of a multi-hazard, standardized and integrated natural disaster risk early warning business. Strengthen the construction of disaster service distribution channels, and use television, the Internet, mobile phones and other means to achieve full coverage of the people of Tuvalu. Support the construction of hurricane monitoring and early warning centers, strengthen the capacity of regional numerical forecasting, improve the calculation accuracy and stability of models, and improve the ability to forecast abnormal hurricane tracks. Support the establishment of natural disaster reduction data centers and emergency rescue bases, and improve the ability to obtain, share, analyze, and evaluate disaster information, and respond to major disasters in a timely manner.

3. Increase trade and investment, and strengthen infrastructure assistance in the region. At present, Pacific island countries are generally facing the problems of economic backwardness and stagnation of social development, so there is an urgent need to carry out economic and trade cooperation with countries outside the region to boost the economy and improve people's livelihood. It is recommended to vigorously promote the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative in the region, increase the import of goods from countries in the region, and encourage Chinese enterprises to strengthen the construction of transportation infrastructure under the premise of scientific assessment.

Focusing on major production projects and livelihood projects on the key islands of Tuvalu, we will compile infrastructure construction plans and project reserves, give priority to the construction of major projects conducive to economic, trade and tourism development, promote the construction or upgrading of airports in an orderly manner according to market demand, increase routes and flights to China, and increase domestic personnel to travel and develop businesses in Tuvalu, so as to gradually enhance its influence on the country.