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Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua team
Authors of this report:
李林芷 S0850121060038
梁中华 S0850520120001
·Summary ·
Real estate optimization policies have been implemented one after another, and housing sales have improved marginally. In terms of consumption, although the post-holiday service consumption has declined, the performance is slightly better than in previous years, and the volume of textile and garment transactions in commodity consumption has declined significantly. In terms of investment, infrastructure funds have been slow to arrive, and property sales have rebounded but are still low. Real estate policies have been adjusted one after another, and the sales data of new and second-hand houses in Beijing, Hangzhou and other places have improved marginally, but the magnitude and duration remain to be seen. In terms of import and export, port data was unstable, and international shipping freight rates rebounded. In terms of production, the steel industry has improved marginally, while the output of the petrochemical industry has fluctuated due to demand. In terms of prices, the prices of agricultural products increased slightly due to the increase in pork prices, while the prices of industrial products fell slightly. In terms of liquidity, the funding rate fluctuated upward, the dollar index rebounded slightly, and the renminbi appreciated slightly.
Risk warning: the policy of stabilizing growth is less than expected.
1
Three high-frequency synchronization indicators
Haitong Macro High-frequency Synchronization Index: As of May 12, the production synchronization index (HTPI) in April was 5.33%, and the value in March was 4.78%; The export coincident index (HTEXI) in April was -0.74%, and the value in March was -3.85%; The Consumption Coincident Index (HTCI) was 4.99% in April, compared to 4.43% in March.
2
Specific high-frequency indicator tracking
2.1 Consumption: Demand fell after the holiday
Durable goods consumption: 1) Automobile consumption: The weekly sales volume of automobile wholesale and retail sales rebounded significantly compared with the week before the May Day holiday, but the four-week average was still falling, but the year-on-year decline was basically the same as the week before the holiday, and the absolute value was at the average level of the same period of the previous year.
Consumption of non-durable goods: 1) Textile and garment: The transaction volume of the Textile City fell super-seasonally, and the absolute value fell to the lowest level in the same period in recent years, turning from positive to negative year-on-year, and the demand for textile and clothing returned to a low level. 2) Light industry daily use: as of May 5, Yiwu small commodity price index closed at 101.36, a slight decline from the week before the holiday, the online price index fell by a large margin, the price of footwear and care and beauty products in various categories rose, and the price of clothing and apparel fell significantly.
Personnel flow: 1) Intra-city passenger transport: The weekly average of the congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded slightly, but the weekly average of subway passenger traffic in 18 cities is still falling slightly, but this is mainly due to seasonal factors, and the year-on-year growth rate is up. Among them, the subway passenger volume in first-tier cities rebounded compared with the holiday, mainly due to the resumption of residents' travel to work after the holiday. 2) Inter-city passenger transport: Baidu's migration index fell seasonally after the holiday, but this year's decline rate was slower, turning from negative to positive year-on-year, and residents' daily cross-city travel was slightly more than in previous years. Last Sunday, the average number of flights from the mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and international increased by -3.3%, -3.2% and -1.0% month-on-month, respectively, all of which turned from positive to negative, mainly due to the decrease in cross-regional and cross-border cross-border travel after the holiday.
Service consumption: 1) Film consumption: The number of moviegoers and the box office of movies fell after the festival, but the decline was slower than in previous years, and the year-on-year growth rate turned from negative to positive, the absolute value was only lower than the same period in 2017, but higher than that of other years. 2) Amusement consumption: Last week, the traffic of Universal Studios Beijing and Shanghai Disneyland decreased by 39.1% and 18.6% month-on-month, which is a normal decline after the holiday, compared with the same period last year, from negative to positive, which may be due to the congestion of travel and amusement during the May Day holiday, and some tourists choose to travel off-peak. 3) Tourism consumption: In the first week of May, the Hainan tourism price index was 110.39, up 10.4% week-on-week, which was mainly affected by holiday price increases, of which the price of accommodation and transportation was the main driving item, especially the price of five-star hotels, which rose by 43.0% week-on-week, much higher than that of other hotels.
2.3 Investment: The purchase restriction policy has been effective
Infrastructure: In April, new medium and long-term loans to enterprises were 410 billion yuan, relatively low; As of May 10, a total of 855.8 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued this year, and the overall implementation speed is slow. This year, there are relatively few infrastructure-related funds in place, which may have a certain drag on infrastructure investment in the later stage.
Real estate: 1) Real estate sales: Last week, the average daily transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was basically the same as the previous week, at 212,000 square meters, but the year-on-year decline returned to 56.1%, and the year-on-year decline in 2019 also expanded. At the city level, the sales area of new homes in third-tier cities rebounded marginally, while the decline in sales in first- and second-tier cities expanded, and the effect of the adjustment of purchase restriction policies in some cities needs to be further released. Second-hand housing sales have rebounded significantly, and the proportion of second-hand housing sales has returned to a high level. 2) Land transactions: In the week of May 5, the area of land transactions fell again, and the absolute value was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the premium rate fell slightly to 2.5%, which was also the lowest value in the same period in recent years.
Construction entity indicators: 1) Infrastructure: The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants rebounded to 27.0%, although the absolute value is still low, but the year-on-year decline has narrowed. 2) Housing construction: Last week, the cement shipment rate rebounded to 54.2%, the year-on-year decline expanded slightly, and the transaction volume of construction steel also rebounded to 138,000 tons, narrowing the year-on-year decline, and the absolute value of housing construction indicators was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years.
Real estate policy observation: Recently, various localities have successively optimized real estate policies. On April 30, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Housing Purchase Restriction Policy, which allows some resident families and adult singles to purchase a new set of commercial housing outside the Fifth Ring Road on the basis of the implementation of the existing housing purchase restriction policy. On May 9, the Office of the Leading Group for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Hangzhou Real Estate Market issued the Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Market Regulation and Control Policies, which clearly lifted the housing purchase restrictions. On the same day, the Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other four departments issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", clarifying the complete cancellation of housing purchase restrictions.
Policy optimization of urban real estate data: 1) Beijing: 12 days after the adjustment of the purchase restriction policy (April 30-May 11), the average daily sales area of new and second-hand houses in Beijing was 1.3 and 30,000 square meters, respectively, a decrease of 9.4% and 0.9% compared with the same period last year, and a year-on-year decline of 54.5% and 6.5% respectively in April. It can be seen that since the implementation of the policy, Beijing's new home sales have seen a very obvious marginal improvement, and second-hand housing sales are also picking up, but the magnitude is relatively small. 2) Hangzhou: Three days after the adjustment of the purchase restriction policy (May 9-11), the average daily sales area of new and second-hand houses in Hangzhou was 1.4 and 13,000 square meters, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -42.3% and 31.7% compared with the same period last year, and a year-on-year growth rate of -47.7% and 9.8% respectively in April. The current policy implementation time is still relatively short, and the current improvement is relatively large in second-hand housing, although there is also a marginal improvement in new home sales, but the magnitude is small. This may be due to the fact that short-term residents choose to sell their existing homes first to replace them with new homes, and it still takes time to buy new homes, and whether new home sales can further recover remains to be verified by this week's data.
2.4 Imports and exports: Contingent shocks
Port data: the number of inbound and outbound ships docked at mainland ports has dropped significantly, and the year-on-year decline has expanded; The number of ships leaving the port and the deadweight tonnage of the eight coastal ports and the country's top 20 ports all rebounded from the previous week, and the year-on-year decline in the number of ships leaving the port narrowed slightly, but the year-on-year decline in deadweight tonnage was expanding.
Freight rate data: Internationally, the ocean freight rate (BDI) rebounded significantly last week, and the freight rate rose 23.2% month-on-month, which was partly due to the increase in demand for domestic imported raw materials such as iron ore, which had some support for international freight rates. Domestic import and export freight rates have also rebounded, of which export freight rates increased by 3.7% month-on-month compared with the pre-holiday period.
2.5 Production: Marginal improvement in the steel industry
Iron and steel: the coking operating rate rebounded super-seasonally, and the year-on-year decline narrowed sharply from 10.4% to 4.8%; The operating rate of blast furnaces also rebounded to 81.5% super-seasonally, which was at a high value in the past year, and turned from negative to positive year-on-year; The spiral operating rate also rose steadily, and the year-on-year decline was narrower than that of the previous week, but the absolute value was still at a low level in the same period in recent years. From the perspective of output, the output of spiral coil rebounded compared with the previous perimeter, and the output of coil turned from negative to positive year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1%. The overall marginal recovery of production in the steel industry may be due to the successive implementation of stable growth policies and real estate optimization policies, which will increase demand expectations.
Coal-fired power: The daily coal consumption of the eight coastal provinces fell seasonally, but remained at the highest value on record, with the year-on-year growth rate rebounding to 3.5% for three consecutive weeks. The current coal consumption data may reflect the continuous increase in electricity demand of downstream industries.
Petrochemical: 1) Chemical fiber: the load rate of PTA and polyester factories fell super-seasonally, and the operating rate declined, both of which fell year-on-year compared with the previous week, mainly due to the weakening of demand expectations due to the end of the traditional peak season of textiles, and the shutdown of the superimposed industry maintenance season; The load rate of the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is relatively stable, and the production index of the whole chemical fiber industry chain is near the average value of the previous years. 2) Rubber and plastics: The operating rate of PVC has rebounded seasonally to 77%, which is at a low position in the past year.
Chlor-alkali: Last week, the operating rate of soda ash fell slightly to 86.4% seasonally, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 5.3% from 7.2% before the holiday, and the current absolute value is at the average level of the same period in recent years.
Automotive: The operating rate of semi-steel tires fell seasonally to 76.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate slowed to 8.2%, but the absolute value is still at an all-time high, or due to the marginal decline in passenger car sales, which leads to a decline in expectations; The operating rate of all-steel tires rebounded weakly than the seasonal, turning from positive to negative year-on-year, and the absolute value was at a record low. Demand for passenger cars is still strong, but demand for large vehicles is likely to be relatively weak.
Freight: The truckload freight flow index rebounded seasonally and was around the average of the same period.
2.6 Inventory: Building materials are slow to go to the warehouse
Energy products: Qinhuangdao port's coal inventory fell seasonally after the holiday, and the current inventory fell to the lowest level in the same period in recent years, or due to the reduction of production in the main coal producing areas due to environmental protection and safety inspections, the port warehouse fell to a low level. Building materials: cement storage capacity ratio rose slightly after the holiday, steel social inventory slower than the seasonal decline, year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly to 3.5%, cement and steel inventory are at a high level in the same period in recent years; The inventory of infrastructure building materials asphalt fell seasonally after the holiday, located near the average value of the previous year, and the year-on-year growth rate fell slightly to 7.5%. Overall, the high inventory reflects the weak downstream demand for building materials. Others: Last week, the inventory days of PTA, polyester chips and polyester filament yarn fell significantly compared with the previous week, or the supply was relatively small due to the maintenance of the chemical fiber industry chain, but the absolute value of the current inventory is still at a high level in the same period in recent years.
2.7 Prices: Prices of agricultural products have risen
CPI: Pork prices rose 0.5% month-on-month, due to the gradual emergence of the effect of de-capacity in the early stage, coupled with the low price base in the same period last year, pork prices rose for 7 consecutive weeks year-on-year, and the increase continued to rise to 4.6%, which may form a certain support for CPI. Fruit prices turned from rising to falling, and the year-on-year decline continued to expand to 9.7%. Vegetable prices rose by 2.0% month-on-month, turning from negative to positive year-on-year, and up 0.5% year-on-year. Judging from the iCPI price index released by Tsinghua University, the overall iCPI fell to 15.3% year-on-year from 16.2% in the previous week.
PPI: The South China Composite Index temporarily ended its continuous upward trend, falling slightly by 0.4%, with large differences in the structure of various sub-items, among which agricultural products rose by 1.6% month-on-month, mainly due to the expected reduction in the output of many varieties due to bad weather; Precious metals turned from falling to rising; The energy and chemical index fell by 1.5%, mainly due to the decline in the price of crude oil and chemical industry chain. 1) Energy: Coal prices were relatively stable, and the comprehensive trading price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) rebounded slightly to 724 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices were relatively stable, with Brent Oil and WTI crude closing at $82.8/b and $78.3/bbl, respectively, as of May 11. 2) Building materials: Last week, the prices of major varieties were relatively stable, the prices of steel and threads rebounded slightly, the prices of cement and hot coil fell slightly, all of which were at a relatively low level, while the prices of asphalt were stable and declined, down 0.8% month-on-month. 3) Metals: non-ferrous metals, copper prices fell to 79,920 yuan / ton, down 2.1% month-on-month, but still at a historical high, copper prices fell last week or due to the weakening of the U.S. April employment data and PMI, superimposed market expectations to cut interest rates forward, but the resource end of the copper resources competition or the subsequent copper prices to form a certain support; Aluminum prices were relatively stable, and lithium carbonate fell slightly by 0.7%, which was at a historical low. 4) Others: The prices of PTA, polyester chips and polyester filament yarns all fell slightly last week, or benefited from the high prices of upstream raw materials.
2.7 Liquidity: The funding rate fluctuates upward
The funding rate has fallen. As of May 10, R007 and DR007 closed at 1.87% and 1.82%, down 22 bps and 29 bps respectively from the previous week. Last week, the central bank continued to shrink the amount, with a net withdrawal of 440 billion yuan, of which the reverse repurchase maturity was 450 billion yuan and the operation volume was 10 billion yuan.
The U.S. dollar index recovered slightly. U.S. inflation expectations are higher, and the U.S. dollar index closed at 105.33 as of May 10, up 24 bps from the previous week. The weakening of the US dollar in the previous period, coupled with the improvement of domestic economic expectations, led to a slight appreciation of the yuan, and as of May 10, the USD/CNY closed at 7.225 (7.242 the previous week).
Risk warning: the policy of stabilizing growth is less than expected.
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