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Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua team
Authors of this report:
李林芷 S0850121060038
梁中华 S0850520120001
·Summary ·
The holiday effect boosts service consumption. In terms of consumption, the consumption of goods was relatively stable, driven by the Qingming holiday, the performance of service consumption was outstanding, and residents traveled more across cities and short distances, driving the consumption of tourism, amusement and movie watching to strengthen. According to data from the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of tourists traveling during this year's Qingming Festival holiday increased by 11.5% compared with the same period in 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 2.2%, and the travel expenditure of domestic tourists increased by 12.7% compared with the same period in 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 2.4%. In terms of investment, the year-on-year decline in new home sales expanded again, the operating rate of asphalt in the physical indicators was marginally lower, and the data for cement and steel were relatively stable. In terms of imports and exports, data on external demand in Europe and the United States and data from other exporting countries show that exports may fluctuate in March. In terms of production, the coal consumption data reflecting the overall production is still weak, and the steel and petrochemical industries have not seen significant improvement. In terms of inventory, the inventory of building materials increased marginally. In terms of prices, the prices of consumer goods rebounded slightly, of which the prices of services rose by a large margin; the prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals among industrial products rose sharply, while the prices of building materials such as iron and steel and cement continued to fall. In terms of liquidity, the funding rate fell after the cross-month, and the dollar index fell slightly, but it was still above 104 points.
Risk warning: the policy of stabilizing growth is less than expected.
1
Three high-frequency synchronization indicators
Haitong Macro High-frequency Synchronised Index: As of April 6, the Production Synchrony Index (HTPI) in March was 4.78%, with a value of 6.06% from January to February, the Export Synchrony Index (HTEXI) in March was -3.85%, and the January-February value was 2.24%, and the Consumption Synchrony Index (HTCI) in March was 4.43%, with a value of 5.74% from January to February.
2
Specific high-frequency indicator tracking
Tourism consumption during the Qingming holiday was further restored. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the Qingming Festival holiday (April 4 to 6), there were 119 million domestic tourism trips across the country, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019 and an annualized growth rate of 2.2% on a comparable basis, and domestic tourists spent 53.95 billion yuan on travel, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 2.4%. There were 1.041 million inbound tourists and 992,000 outbound tourists.
2.1 Consumption: Service consumption is hot
Durable Goods Consumption: 1) Automobile Consumption: The four-week average of wholesale and retail sales of automobiles rebounded seasonally, at a similar pace to the same period in 2017-2018, but slower than last year, and from positive to negative year-on-year. 2) Home appliance consumption: The four-week average year-on-year growth rate of online and offline sales of home appliances has rebounded compared with the previous week, which may be due to the approaching holiday, driving the demand for home appliances to rebound.
Non-durable goods consumption: 1) Textile and garment: The transaction volume of Textile City fell again, in line with the trend of last year, but contrary to the seasonality of other years, compared with the same period in 2019, the year-on-year turned from positive to negative. 2) Light industry daily use: As of March 31, the Yiwu small commodity price index closed at 101.65, although the overall level is higher than in previous years, but the volatility is large. Among them, the price of bags and bags increased the most, followed by sports and entertainment goods, which was mainly due to the approaching holiday and the increase in demand for going out.
Personnel flow: 1) Intra-city passenger transport: Affected by the holiday effect, the congestion delay index of 100 cities and the weekly average of subway passenger traffic in 18 cities have fallen, of which the urban congestion delay index is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Compared with the same period in previous years, traffic in the city has fallen faster this year, reflecting that residents are more likely to choose to return to their hometowns or travel during the holiday season. 2) Inter-city passenger transport: Baidu's migration index has rebounded significantly compared with the previous week, and compared with previous years, residents have traveled more across cities during the Qingming holiday this year. Last Sunday, the average number of flights from the Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and international increased by -4.2%, 1.2% and -0.5% month-on-month, reflecting that residents are more likely to choose other modes of transportation during the Qingming holiday, or due to the shorter holiday, more residents choose to travel around the country rather than long-distance and cross-border travel.
Service consumption: 1) Movie consumption: The number of moviegoers and the box office of movies rebounded during the holiday, turning from negative to positive year-on-year compared with the same period last year and 2019. According to the Securities Times, citing Maoyan Professional Edition data, as of the afternoon of April 6, the box office of this year's Qingming holiday (4/4-4/6) has exceeded 800 million yuan, of which the single-day box office of the Qingming Festival (April 4) exceeded 321 million, refreshing the box office record for the same period, and the film consumption performance is relatively strong. 2) Amusement consumption: Last week, the traffic of Universal Studios Beijing increased by 27.7% compared with the previous week, but the traffic of Shanghai Disneyland decreased by 3.0% month-on-month. 3) Tourism consumption: The Hainan tourism price index was 101.22 in the fifth week of March, up 1.2% week-on-week, falling faster than seasonal. Among them, the price of transportation and special tourism consumption has increased significantly, which is mainly affected by the Qingming holiday. Among the hotels in different price ranges, only five-star hotels have increased their prices, while other hotel prices are still falling, reflecting the recovery of service consumption or imbalance.
2.2 Investment: New home sales fluctuated at a low level
Real estate: 1) Real estate sales: Last week, the average daily transaction area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell seasonally to 238,000 square meters, which was a year-on-year decline of 45.1% compared with the same period last year. At the city level, the sales area of new homes in first-tier cities rebounded marginally, but the sales of new homes in second- and third-tier cities fell marginally. Second-hand housing sales fell seasonally, but at a slower rate than first-hand houses, which made the proportion of second-hand homes rise again to the highest value in the same period in recent years. 2) Land transactions: The land transaction area in the week of March 31 rebounded compared with the previous week, and the premium rate also rose slightly.
Construction entity indicators: 1) Asphalt: The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants was 26.5%, showing an anti-seasonal decline, which was expanding compared with the decline in 2019 and last year, and the absolute value was still at a low level in the same period in recent years. 2) Cement: The cement shipment rate fell to 45.8% last week, narrowing from last year's decline, and the construction steel turnover rebounded seasonally to 165,000 tons, a marginal improvement from 2019 and last year. At present, the construction progress of infrastructure projects may slow down, but the construction progress of housing projects is relatively stable.
2.3 Imports and exports: Exports may fluctuate
Overseas data: The Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States and the euro area in March was 51.9% and 46.1% respectively, both down slightly from the previous month, but the decline was smaller. South Korea's exports grew at a year-on-year rate of 3.1% in March, down slightly from 4.8% in February. The data on external demand and data from other exporting countries show that exports may fluctuate in March.
Port data: The number of inbound and outbound ships calling at mainland ports has fallen seasonally, but the rate of decline is slightly slower than in previous years, and the current absolute value is only lower than the same period in 2023. The number of ships leaving the port and the deadweight tonnage of the top 20 ports and the eight coastal ports are all declining, and the rate of decline is relatively fast, compared with the year-on-year growth rate of 2019 and last year.
Freight data: Internationally, ocean freight rates (BDI) continued to fall sharply last week, down 13.6% from the previous week. Domestic import freight rates are also falling slightly.
2.4 Production: Coal consumption is still falling
Iron and steel: The operating rate of coking fell for the third consecutive week, and the operating rate of blast furnaces also turned from rising to falling, and the current absolute value is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, which is marginally weaker than that in 2019 and the same period last year. Although the operating rate of rebar has rebounded slightly, it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the prosperity of the steel industry is still low, or due to weak downstream demand. From the perspective of output, the output of spirals fluctuated at a low level, and the year-on-year decline was still large compared with last year.
Coal power: The daily coal consumption of the eight coastal provinces continued to fall, and the year-on-year growth rate turned from negative to positive compared with last year, but the decline rate was faster than that of other years, and the margin was lower than the same period in 2019, which may be mainly due to the lack of industrial electricity demand.
Petrochemical: 1) Chemical fiber: The operating rate of the upstream PTA and midstream polyester industries has rebounded, compared with the marginal improvement of the same period last year. However, in absolute terms, the current PTA operating rate is still below the average for the same period of the previous year. 2) Image: The operating rate of PVC rebounded slightly to 79% from 78% in the previous week, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years in absolute terms. At present, with the advent of the peak demand season, the petrochemical industry may pick up, but the prosperity is still low.
Freight: The truckload freight flow index has fallen seasonally, although the rate of decline is slightly slower than last year and 2019, and the overall freight index is around the average of the same period.
2.5 Inventory: Marginal increase in building materials inventory
Energy products: Qinhuangdao Port coal has once again switched to destocking, and the destocking speed is slightly slower than in previous years, and the inventory level is relatively low in the same period in recent years. Building materials: cement storage capacity ratio stopped falling and rebounded, steel social inventory fell but slower than seasonal, and the absolute value level was at a high level in the same period in recent years, which reflects the relatively weak demand for housing construction. Asphalt inventories for infrastructure building materials continued to rise from the previous week, contrary to seasonality, which may be due to the slow progress of downstream infrastructure construction. Others: The inventory days of PTA and polyester filament yarns shortened last week, but the inventory days of midstream polyester chips increased and the absolute value was at the highest level in the same period in recent years.
2.6 Prices: Crude oil and non-ferrous metals have risen
CPI: Except for pork, the prices of other food products fell from the previous week, and the price of pork rose slightly, and the year-on-year growth rate is also picking up. Judging from the iCPI price index released by Tsinghua University, the overall iCPI rebounded slightly from the previous week, from 16.7% in the previous week to 17.1%, with large differences among the sub-items, among which the prices of food, daily necessities and services, other goods and services, and medicine rose most significantly.
PPI: The South China Composite Index rebounded slightly from the previous week, of which all sub-price indices were on the rise, of which the precious metals index increased by 3.5% week-on-week, the largest increase. 1) Energy products: The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500K) fell slightly from the previous week. Crude oil prices rebounded, as of April 5, Brent oil and WTI crude oil prices closed at $91.2 / barrel and $86.9 / barrel, respectively, both up from the previous week, of which Brent oil prices exceeded $90 / barrel, mainly due to the potential risk of the situation in the Middle East. 2) Building materials: Among the main varieties last week, the prices of steel and cement on behalf of housing construction building materials are falling, and the current prices of both are at a low position, which may reflect the relatively flat downstream demand. The price of asphalt rose slightly from the previous week, but not by much. 3) Others: Last week, the prices of upstream PTA and midstream polyester chips of chemical fiber rebounded slightly, but the prices of downstream polyester filaments are still falling. Among the non-ferrous metals, copper prices have risen further, aluminum prices have also rebounded, and the rebound of non-ferrous prices may be affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts, tightening supply and increased demand expectations, and the price of lithium carbonate has rebounded slightly, returning to more than 110,000 yuan/ton.
2.7 Liquidity: The U.S. dollar index is on the downside
The funding rate has fallen. After the cross-month, the funding rate returned to below 2%, and as of April 3, R007 and DR007 closed at 1.98% and 1.81%, down 36 and 16 bps respectively from the previous week. Last week, the central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal of funds was 444 billion yuan, the maturity amount was 450 billion yuan, and the operation volume was 6 billion yuan.
The U.S. dollar index fluctuated to the downside. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated and fell, closing at 104.30 as of April 5, down 21 bps from the previous week, which may be affected by the negative macro data. The renminbi depreciated slightly, with USD/CNY trading at 7.236 as of 3 April (from 7.223 the previous week).
Risk warning: the policy of stabilizing growth is less than expected.
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