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Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua team
Authors of this report:
李林芷 S0850121060038
梁中华 S0850520120001
·Summary ·
The structural differentiation of the economy is still wide. In terms of consumption, service consumption fell back to the usual level after the holiday, and the consumption of automobiles, textiles and clothing and other goods was generally flat. In terms of investment, new home sales fluctuated at the bottom, but second-hand housing sales rebounded significantly, driving the proportion of second-hand houses to rise to the highest level since the Spring Festival, and the land market returned to a low level. From the perspective of construction progress, infrastructure construction starts have improved marginally, but housing construction starts are still slowing down marginally. In terms of imports and exports, South Korea's exports performed well in early April, mainly benefiting from strong overseas demand for semiconductors, which may provide some support to mainland exports. In terms of production, the performance of the steel industry continued to be weak due to the lack of demand, and the performance of chemical fibers was relatively advantageous due to the support of domestic and external demand for downstream textile and clothing. The production indicators of the automotive industry, which performed well in the early stage, weakened, but the absolute value is still high. In terms of inventory, the inventory of building materials is still rebounding at the margin, and the absolute value is at a high level. In terms of prices, the marginal rebound in pork prices in consumer goods requires continued attention, while non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum in industrial products continued to rise in price supported by demand, and the prices of building materials such as steel and cement stopped falling and rebounded, perhaps due to improved demand expectations. In terms of liquidity, the dollar index recovered sharply above 106 points.
Risk warning: the policy of stabilizing growth is less than expected.
1
Three high-frequency synchronization indicators
Haitong Macro High-frequency Synchronised Index: As of April 13, the Production Synchrony Index (HTPI) in March was 4.78%, and the January-February value was 6.06%, the March Export Synchrony Index (HTEXI) was -3.85%, and the January-February value was 2.24%, and the March Consumption Synchrony Index (HTCI) was 4.43%, and the January-February value was 5.74%.
2. Three high-frequency synchronization indicators
2.1 Consumption: Service consumption fell after the holiday
Durable goods consumption: 1) Automobile consumption: The four-week average of automobile wholesale and retail sales fell seasonally, and the absolute value was higher than that of the same period of the previous year, but lower than that of last year, when automobile consumption was more popular, and the year-on-year decline was still expanding slightly. 2) Home appliance consumption: As of the 14th week of this year (April 1-7), the four-week average year-on-year growth rate of online and offline sales of home appliances rebounded for the second consecutive week, which was mainly due to the high heat of home appliance consumption during the holiday.
Non-durable goods consumption: 1) Textile and garment: the turnover of Textile City rebounded slightly, but the recovery rate was slower than that of the seasonal, and the year-on-year growth rate fell slightly, and the absolute value was at the average level of the same period of the previous year. 2) Light industry daily use: As of April 7, the Yiwu small commodity price index closed at 101.87, a slight rebound from the previous week, and the overall level was higher than in previous years. Among them, the price of daily necessities increased the most, and the price increase of hardware, electronic appliances also ranked first.
Personnel flow: 1) Intra-city passenger transport: After the holiday, the congestion delay index of 100 cities and the weekly average of subway passenger traffic in 18 cities rebounded, but they are still slightly lower than the pre-holiday level. Compared with the same period last year, the subway passenger volume has fallen marginally this year, but the congestion delay index has rebounded marginally, or because more residents choose to travel by car. 2) Inter-city passenger transport: Baidu's migration index fell normally after the holiday, and the year-on-year growth rate declined slightly compared with last year. Last week (4/7-14), the average daily number of flights from the Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and international increased by 5.1%, 3.2% and 2.1% month-on-month, all of which rebounded significantly from the previous week, partly due to more post-holiday returns and business trips.
Service consumption: 1) Film consumption: The number of moviegoers and the box office of movies fell seasonally, and the year-on-year growth rate declined significantly, of which the number of moviegoers turned from positive to negative year-on-year. 2) Amusement consumption: Last week, the traffic of Universal Studios Beijing decreased by 26.7% compared with the previous week, and the traffic of Shanghai Disneyland increased by 5.4% month-on-month. 3) Tourism consumption: The Hainan tourism price index was 99.4 in the first week of April, down 0.6% week-on-week, mainly due to seasonal factors, among which the decline in accommodation and special tourism prices was the main reason for the decline in the total price index.
2.2 Investment: The proportion of second-hand housing sales has risen
Infrastructure: In March, the new medium and long-term loans of domestic enterprises reached 1.6 trillion yuan, second only to 2023 in absolute value, and the funds on the enterprise side are relatively abundant. As of April 13, a total of 659.86 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued this year, only faster than the same period in 2021.
Real estate: 1) Real estate sales: Last week, the average daily transaction area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded seasonally to 241,000 square meters, the year-on-year decline was basically the same as the previous week, but the decline widened compared with the same period in 2019. At the city level, the sales area of new homes in second-tier cities rebounded marginally, but the sales of new homes in first- and third-tier cities fell marginally. Second-hand housing sales rebounded seasonally, and the recovery rate is faster than in previous years, and the current absolute value is second only to the same period in 2023, compared with the year-on-year growth rate of last year and 2019, which has driven the proportion of second-hand housing transaction area to continue to rise to the same period of the previous year. 2) Land transactions: The land transaction area in the week of April 7 fell seasonally, but the decline rate was faster than in previous years, the absolute value fell to the lowest level in the same period in recent years, the premium rate fell slightly, and the land market returned to flat.
Construction entity indicators: 1) Asphalt: The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants rebounded to 29.4%, narrowing the decline from 2019 and last year, which may mean that the progress of infrastructure construction has accelerated marginally, but the current absolute value is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. 2) Cement: The cement shipment rate rebounded to 50.9% last week, a slight increase from last year's decline, and the construction steel turnover fell slightly to 162,000 tons seasonally, which was weaker than last year's margin, which may reflect the marginal slowdown in the progress of housing construction compared with last year.
2.3 Imports and Exports: South Korea's exports improved
Overseas data: South Korea's exports in the first 10 days of April grew by 21.6% year-on-year, and imports from China grew by 14.0% year-on-year, both of which were significantly improved compared with the same period in March and the whole month of March.
Port data: The number of inbound and outbound ships calling at mainland ports has rebounded seasonally, but compared with last year, the number of outbound ships has rebounded marginally, but the number of inbound ships has dropped marginally. The number of ships and deadweight tonnage of the eight coastal ports and the top 20 ports in the country have rebounded slightly from the previous week, and from the year-on-year growth rate, the departure data of the top 20 ports in the country has fallen marginally compared with last year, but only looking at the eight coastal ports, the departure data has rebounded slightly.
Freight rate data: Internationally, ocean freight rates (BDI) fell for the fourth consecutive week last week, but the month-on-month decline in freight rates narrowed to 2.8%, narrowing from 13.6% in the previous week. Domestic export freight rates fell slightly, but import freight rates rebounded slightly. Although the leading shipping companies have successively issued price increase notices and increased the freight rate of Asian routes, the current market is still in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that the freight rate will not rise significantly in the short term.
2.4 Production: The production margin of automobiles has weakened
Steel: The operating rate of coking continued to fall, although the operating rate of blast furnaces rebounded seasonally, the speed was relatively slow, and the operating rate of rebar and wire rod also fell slightly, and the margin weakened compared with the same period last year. At present, the absolute value of the production indicators of the steel industry is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, which means that the industry's prosperity is low, or the steel demand is weak due to the flat performance of real estate. From the perspective of output, the output of spiral coils fell slightly, and the year-on-year growth rate was basically the same as that of the previous week.
Coal-fired power: The daily coal consumption of the eight coastal provinces continued to decline slightly, albeit at a relatively slow pace, with a slight rebound from the year-on-year growth rate in 2019 and last year, reflecting the current industrial electricity demand may increase.
Petrochemical: 1) Chemical fiber: The operating rate of upstream PTA has dropped significantly, mainly due to the recent announcement of equipment maintenance by a number of PTA manufacturers, and the current absolute value is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The operating rate and load rate of the midstream polyester industry have rebounded seasonally, and the load rate of downstream looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has improved marginally compared with the same period last year, and the performance of the textile and clothing industries in the lower reaches is better, which is due to the relatively strong external demand, on the other hand, the domestic textile and garment demand also has some support. 2) Rubber and plastics: The operating rate of PVC fell slightly to 77% from 79% in the previous week, which was slightly slower than in previous years, and the absolute value was still at a low level in the same period in recent years.
Chlor-alkali: The operating rate of soda ash fell to 85.1% last week from 84.7% in the previous week, contrary to seasonality, and the year-on-year growth rate in 2019 and last year has dropped significantly, which may be affected by the weak demand for downstream flat glass and photovoltaic glass.
PV: Last week, the Solarzoom PV Manager Index fell for the third consecutive week, and the rate of decline was slightly faster than seasonal, with the downstream power station index falling even more, down 2.7% month-on-month.
Automobile: The operating rate of semi-steel tires and all-steel tires are falling, and the rate of decline is fast, of which the operating rate of all-steel tires has fallen to the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires has fallen compared with the year-on-year growth rate of 2019 and last year, which may reflect the marginal weakening of the performance of the automobile industry with a high degree of prosperity in the early stage.
Freight: The truckload freight flow index rebounded seasonally, but at a slightly slower rate than last year, and the overall freight index was around the average of the same period.
2.5 Inventory: The inventory of building materials is high
Energy products: Qinhuangdao port coal destocked for the second consecutive week, in line with seasonality, and the current inventory level fell to the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Building materials: cement storage capacity ratio super seasonal rebound, steel social inventory continues to fall slowly, slower than seasonal, the current absolute value of housing construction building materials inventory level in the same period in recent years. The asphalt inventory of infrastructure building materials was the same as the previous week and was at the average level of the same period in recent years. Others: The number of days of PTA and polyester chip inventory increased last week, and the number of days of downstream polyester filament inventory was the same as the previous week.
2.6 物价：有色涨价，建材止跌
CPI: Pork prices rose 0.6% month-on-month, except pork, the prices of other food products fell from the previous week, and the prices of pork and vegetables rebounded from the previous week, with pork rebounding by a large margin. Judging from the iCPI price index released by Tsinghua University, the overall iCPI rebounded slightly from the previous week, from 17.2% in the previous week to 17.6%, with large differences in various sub-items, among which clothing, transportation and communication prices rose significantly.
PPI: The South China Composite Index rebounded for the second consecutive week, with prices rising in all sub-items except agricultural products, among which the metal index had the highest month-on-month growth rate of 4.5%. 1) Energy: Coal prices continued to fall, of which the comprehensive trading price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) fell to 722 yuan/ton from the end of March. Crude oil prices fell slightly, as of April 12, Brent oil and WTI crude oil prices closed at $90.5 / barrel and $85.7 / barrel, respectively, down from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level. 2) Building materials: Among the main varieties last week, steel and cement prices stopped falling and rebounded, but the current absolute level is still relatively low, and asphalt prices have continued to rise since mid-March, exceeding 3,700 yuan/ton as of April 12. At present, the price of building materials has rebounded, or due to the partial recovery of table demand. 3) Others: Last week, the price of PTA in the upstream of chemical fiber fell slightly, and the price of midstream polyester chips and downstream polyester filament rose slightly. Among the non-ferrous metals, copper and aluminum prices rose further, with a week-on-week growth rate of 3.6% and 4.1% respectively, and aluminum prices exceeded 20,000 yuan/ton, and the rebound of non-ferrous prices was mainly due to the improvement of downstream demand and the increase in demand for replenishment, while the price of lithium carbonate rebounded slightly, up 1.4% week-on-week.
2.7 Liquidity: The U.S. dollar index broke above 106
Funding rates fluctuate. The funding rate fluctuated slightly at 2%, and as of April 12, R007 and DR007 closed at 1.89% and 1.83%, with the former falling by 9 bps from the previous week and the latter rising by 2 bps. Last week, the central bank withdrew 394 billion yuan of net funds, with a maturity of 406 billion yuan and an operation volume of 12 billion yuan.
The U.S. dollar index broke through 106 points. As of April 12, the U.S. dollar index closed at 106.03, up 173 bps from the previous week, and rebounded above 106 points for the first time since November last year, mainly due to the increase in safe-haven demand for the dollar. The renminbi depreciated slightly on the back of a stronger dollar, with USD/CNY trading at 7.238 as of 12 April (from 7.236 the week before).
Risk warning: the policy of stabilizing growth is less than expected.
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