Text: Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun
In April, the national CPI turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose 0.1%, compared to a 1.0% decline in the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI rose by 0.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In April, the national PPI fell month-on-month and narrowed the year-on-year decline. On a month-on-month basis, PPI fell by 0.2%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 2.5%, 0.3 percentage points narrower than the previous month.
Conclusions of the study
In April, the CPI rose in all sub-items.
In terms of sub-items, affected by the Qingming holiday, other goods and services, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment increased significantly month-on-month. Education, culture and entertainment rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, up 2.6 percentage points from -2.1% in March. The Other Goods and Services sub-item rose 2% month-on-month in April and 1.4 percentage points from 0.6% in March; The transport and communication sub-sectors rose 1% month-on-month in April, surging 2.4 percentage points from March.
In the CPI food, tobacco and alcohol sub-items, except for alcohol and cigarettes, rose slightly, and most of the sub-items narrowed their declines.
Under the sub-item of food, tobacco and alcohol, fresh vegetables narrowed the decline by 11% month-on-month compared with March, and recorded -3.7% month-on-month in April, driving the CPI down by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The pork sub-item was flat in April from the previous month, from -6.7% in March. The alcohol and cigarette sub-items both increased by 0.1% month-on-month.
The year-on-year decline in PPI production and living materials narrowed, and the month-on-month decline was stable and moderate.
On a year-on-year basis, the means of production fell by 3.1% in April, an improvement from -3.5% in March, and the means of living fell by -0.9% in April, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous decline. On a month-on-month basis, the means of production recorded -0.2% in April, a further decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the means of living recorded -0.1%, unchanged from March.
Among the PPI means of production, the upstream sub-items slowed down, and the recovery of the sub-items of the means of living on the consumer side accelerated.
In April 2024, among the main sub-items of PPI, the decline in the means of production sub-item has narrowed. Among them, mining and raw materials decreased by 4.8% and 1.9% from the year-on-year decline of 5.8% and 2.9% in March, both of which increased by 1 percentage point from the previous value, and the processing sub-items remained unchanged from the previous month. Among the sub-items of means of living, clothing and general daily necessities increased year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in food narrowed, and the year-on-year decline in durable consumer goods expanded. In April, general daily necessities recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, turning positive year-on-year compared with March; Clothing recorded 0.3% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value. Food fell 0.8% year-on-year in April, narrowing the decline from March, and consumer durables fell 1.9% year-on-year in April, widening the decline from March.
In the PPI sub-sector, the resource goods manufacturing industry performed relatively well.
The oil and gas extraction industry increased by 9.4% year-on-year in April, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous value of 6.3%. The non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry increased by 7.6% year-on-year in April, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous value. The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 3 percentage points from March. Among the consumer goods manufacturing industry, the wine, beverage and tea manufacturing industries rose 0.3% year-on-year in April, and the tobacco products industry rose 1% year-on-year in April, both up from the previous value. In terms of equipment manufacturing, the shipbuilding, railway and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1% in April, narrowing from the -0.4% decline in March, and the computer, communication and electronic equipment manufacturing industry recorded a year-on-year decline of -2% in April, narrowing from -2.5% in March.
Risk warning: First, the macro changes exceed expectations, the second is that overseas inflation exceeds expectations, and the third is the large fluctuations in overseas markets
The main body of the report
1 CPI rose year-on-year and month-on-month In April, the national CPI turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose 0.1%, compared to a 1.0% decline in the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI rose by 0.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In April, the national PPI fell month-on-month and narrowed the year-on-year decline. On a month-on-month basis, PPI fell by 0.2%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 2.5%, 0.3 percentage points narrower than the previous month.
2 The service CPI led the rise, and most of the CPI sub-items rose in April. In terms of sub-items, affected by the Qingming holiday, other goods and services, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment increased significantly month-on-month. Education, culture and entertainment rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, up 2.6 percentage points from -2.1% in March. The Other Goods and Services sub-item rose 2% month-on-month in April and 1.4 percentage points from 0.6% in March; The transport and communication sub-sectors recorded a 1% month-on-month increase in April, surging 2.4 percentage points from March.
In the sub-items of food, tobacco and alcohol, except for alcohol and cigarettes, the decline of most sub-items narrowed. Under the sub-item of food, tobacco and alcohol, fresh vegetables narrowed the decline by 11% month-on-month compared with March, and recorded -3.7% month-on-month in April, driving the CPI down by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The pork sub-item was flat in April from the previous month, from -6.7% in March. The alcohol and cigarette sub-items both increased by 0.1% month-on-month.
3 The upstream indicators of PPI showed repair, and the year-on-year decline in the means of production and living narrowed, and the month-on-month decline was stable. On a year-on-year basis, the means of production fell by 3.1% in April, an improvement from -3.5% in March, and the means of subsistence fell by -0.9% in April, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous decline. On a month-on-month basis, the means of production recorded -0.2% in April, a further decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the means of living recorded -0.1%, unchanged from March.
Among the means of production, the upstream sub-items slowed down, and the recovery of the sub-items of the means of living on the consumer side accelerated. In April 2024, among the main sub-items of PPI, the decline in the means of production sub-item has narrowed. Among them, mining and raw materials decreased by 4.8% and 1.9% from the year-on-year decline of 5.8% and 2.9% in March, both of which increased by 1 percentage point from the previous value, and the processing sub-items remained unchanged from the previous month. Among the sub-items of means of living, clothing and general daily necessities increased year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in food narrowed, and the year-on-year decline in durable consumer goods expanded. In April, general daily necessities recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, which was positive year-on-year compared with March; Clothing recorded 0.3% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value. Food fell 0.8% year-on-year in April, narrowing the decline from March, and consumer durables fell 1.9% year-on-year in April, widening the decline from March.
Among the sub-sectors, the resource manufacturing industry performed relatively well. In April, the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 9.4% year-on-year, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous value of 6.3%. The non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry increased by 7.6% year-on-year in April, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous value. The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 3 percentage points from March. In the consumer goods manufacturing industry, the wine, beverage and tea manufacturing industries rose 0.3% year-on-year in April, and the tobacco products industry rose 1% year-on-year in April, both up from the previous value. In terms of equipment manufacturing, the shipbuilding, railway and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1% in April, narrowing the decline from -0.4% in March, and the computer, communication and electronic equipment manufacturing industry recorded a year-on-year decline of -2% in April compared with -2.5% in March.
4 Risk Warning
The first is that the macro changes exceed expectations, the second is that overseas inflation exceeds expectations, and the third is the large fluctuations in overseas markets.
This article is from the report "Inflation Data Review: CPI Turns from Falling to Rising, PPI Declines Narrows" released by Huafu Securities Research Institute on May 12, 2024.
Analyst:
燕翔， S0210523050003
许茹纯，S0210523060005
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