The "war of words" between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea issue has recently made new progress. The Manila Times revealed a lengthy transcript of a conversation between Vice Admiral Carlos, the head of the Western Philippine Military Region, and Chinese diplomats earlier this year.
Records show that Carlos did reach a consensus with China on the issue of Ren'ai Jiao's transportation and replenishment, including but not limited to a commitment not to transport building materials to stranded ships, and to adopt the "1+1" transportation and replenishment model of one official ship and one fishing boat. At the same time, Carlos also confirmed in his speech that the "new model" of the transportation supplement has been agreed by the Philippine military top brass and the civilian government of Marcos Jr.
As soon as the news came out, the Philippines immediately jumped three feet high, and the Philippine military and civilian government issued a series of contradictory statements. Brauner, the leader of the Philippine military, claimed that the recording did not deserve much attention, but added that the recording may be "deepfaked". Philippine Defense Secretary Teodorozer shouted that the recording was fake, and said on the other hand that the person who recorded it would be held accountable.
He also shouted that China had violated the Philippine Anti-Eavesdropping Act by not "checking the table" with the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs before releasing the recording through the media, and that the Philippine government would consider deporting those involved. As for Carlos, the protagonist of the recording, he has been "hidden" since this week, and he does not appear in public at all, let alone respond to the recording.
The official version of the Philippines is that the situation has nothing to do with the recording, but that he happened to be on vacation. The Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to the recording incident, declaring that diplomats should not interfere in the internal affairs of the Philippine country, and announced that stricter visa controls for Chinese citizens will begin next week.
The attitude of the Philippines around this call log is a perfect illustration of one word, and that is "self-contradictory". The Philippines is completely saying too much and making too many mistakes, exposing the fact that it is an untrustworthy country, and it also proves that China is right in releasing this recording. Of course, China's purpose in releasing the recording was not to embarrass Manila.
China's diplomacy has always been meticulous and does not interfere in matters of contention. Now that China has released the recording, it proves one thing: the Marcos Jr. government is running out of time on the South China Sea issue. China took out this recording, not only to knock Marcos Jr., but also to show other countries in Southeast Asia to gain the initiative in public opinion.
The Philippines complained that China did not communicate with them before releasing the records, but a look at the "war of words" between China and the Philippines shows that China has given the Marcos Jr. government many opportunities to change its mind. China first publicly reminded Marcos Jr. on April 18 that there was a "new model" agreement between the two countries on the issue of restocking Ren'ai Jiao.
Now that China has explicitly mentioned this concept, it must have the evidence in its hands. However, China did not release the recording as soon as it came up, but gave a verbal warning in advance, which gave Marcos Jr. time to "reconcile" with the military and political parties, and also gave the Philippines time to change its mind. It was the Philippines that was lucky and kept quibbling for nearly a month, and finally China exposed the "old truth".
China and the Philippines
It is worth mentioning that there was an interval of about 10 days between the time the Chinese side first made public the existence of the "new model" verbal agreement and Marcos Jr. first came forward to deny it. This may mean that the Marcos Jr. government is not unaware that China has evidence, but because of some "unspeakable" reasons, it has no way to turn back, and finally decides to resist stubbornly to the end.
All in all, China's release of the recording this time is definitely not an act of "violating diplomatic etiquette" in the mouth of the Philippines. China and the Philippines are the first to do what the Philippines says it will say, violate basic diplomatic norms, and undermine mutual trust between the two countries. So far, the public opinion situation between China and the Philippines has been completely reversed.
The Philippines has been constantly provoking China in the South China Sea, whether it is going to Ren'ai Jiao to transport supplies or entering the lagoon of Scarborough Shoal, it has brought a boatload of Western reporters with it, just to create itself as a victim on the South China Sea issue.
In the Philippines' view, on the one hand, this could create a lever for foreign forces such as the United States and Japan to intervene in the situation in the South China Sea, and on the other hand, it could drive a wedge between China and other Southeast Asian countries, especially those with sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea issue, by promoting China's narrative of "bullying the small with the big", thereby driving ASEAN and China apart.
Ideally, ASEAN would follow the path of the EU and confront China in the same way that the EU confronts Russia. However, after this round of fierce war of words between China and the Philippines, although the United States is still trying to help the Philippines find an excuse to maintain decency out of its ambition to contain China, the image of the Philippines as a "victim" in the region is completely untenable.
On the day China released the recording, Malaysian scholars immediately published an article in the South China Morning Post, pointing out that the United States is trying to turn the South China Sea into the "Ukraine of Asia", but unlike Kyiv, which has the full support of the European Union, Manila has not received support from ASEAN. At the same time, Marcos Jr. is in danger of being abandoned by the United States at any time.
Meifei
Recently, a series of moves by Southeast Asian countries have clearly reflected which side ASEAN is on in this round of Sino-US games. Last week, the 45th batch of escort groups of the Chinese Navy led by the Urumqi ship officially entered Port Klang, which is adjacent to the Strait of Malacca in Malaysia, for a four-day dock and rest.
On May 9, Vietnam officially announced the good news that the new bilateral port between China and Vietnam, Hengmo-Dongzhong Port, will soon be officially opened. On the same day, new Prime Minister-designate Lawrence Wong said Singapore would not choose sides between China and the United States. On 10 May, the Chinese Navy's large training ship Qi Jiguang and the integrated landing ship Jinggangshan departed for Timor-Leste and Cambodia to jointly organize mixed training with the local naval academy.
Southeast Asian countries are voting with their feet, telling Marcos Jr. that the little tricks played by the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea are not looked down upon by other countries in the region, and this is called fairness and freedom in the hearts of the people. Compared with China, which is committed to maintaining stability in the South China Sea and mutually beneficial to the vast majority of ASEAN countries, the United States has only brought chaos in the South China Sea.
Even when it is most necessary to woo ASEAN countries, the United States is reluctant to concede profits. To take the simplest example, the U.S. Department of Commerce has recently been engaged in a war of words over whether to designate Vietnam as a "market economy country" and does not want to ease its economic containment of Vietnam.
Such an America is destined to become persona non grata villains in Asia. The Philippines, which charges for him, will not end well.
China's large-scale training formation of the "10,000-ton drive" has already left for the South China Sea to start actual combat exercises. China has stood on a moral footing, has been recognized by the countries in the region, and has the ability to defend itself against enemies outside the country. Next, there is a high probability that China will make some moves in the South China Sea, and Marcos Jr. is destined to suffer a big loss this time by betting on the wrong treasure.
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