Since the new Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office last year, the entire South China Sea issue has become the biggest "tipping point" in the Asia-Pacific region. Along with the transfer of medium-range missiles to the Philippines in the United States, the mainland had to prepare for the worst. In April, China completed the construction of a circle of "Philippine Rim diplomacy" in Southeast Asia. Now, China has taken a symbolic step and is taking the initiative of "war and peace" in the South China Sea.
A few days ago, at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the mainland, the topic of the Philippine side's continuous denial that "China and the Philippines once reached an agreement on the South China Sea issue" was discussed. Among them, it is mentioned that China may soon release a recording of a phone call with Philippine military officials, which will be used as evidence of a resolution between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.
I see that many people on the Internet are dissatisfied with this, thinking that what is the use of publishing audio evidence. The typical "fear of power and lack of morality" in the Philippines is to "slap the face" with evidence, and people will not recognize it. Frankly speaking, this problem really can't be looked at simply.
As we mentioned in the previous program, China does not really want to fall into war at this stage, which will have a great impact on China's current industrial transformation and financial reform. However, the provocation of the Philippines on the South China Sea issue is creating a "broken window effect" throughout Southeast Asia and even the world. This will hurt the mainland's interests for a long time. Therefore, we must take the initiative in the situation in the South China Sea, and whether it is war or peace, it must be decided by China, not by allowing the Philippines to make trouble.
As we mentioned above, China's diplomatic team can be said to have been working frantically in April, visiting Southeast Asia and even some Pacific island countries, but did not contact the Philippines, building a "Circum-Philippines diplomacy". This kind of diplomatic strategy can be advanced or retreated. We can effectively control the scale and scope of possible future conflicts with the Philippines; Retreat can isolate the Philippines and further curb the Philippines' development space and influence space.
Now, back to the topic of audio evidence. Why publish. Most clearly, this is the excuse for the Philippines to continue to create problems in the South China Sea. The Philippines has always said that China is hegemonic in the South China Sea, but this recording directly proves that the Philippines is deliberately creating regional turmoil and trying to violate China's sovereignty. Going deeper, this is the "name" of "being famous".
With both a reason to do it and a diplomatic and geopolitical environment that needs to do it, the war or peace in the South China Sea is completely in China's hands. Whether China wants to knock the Philippines in the maritime friction or directly engage with the Philippines, it has the absolute initiative. This is the core goal of the operation of "playing recordings".
In fact, many Chinese people always feel that China's image in the South China Sea is still stuck in the situation of Vietnam and the Philippines invading and occupying the mainland's Nansha islands and reefs a few decades ago. In fact, with the explosion of China's economy and the cooperation of maritime military and infrastructure forces, China actually has a strong actual control capability in the South China Sea. Large military bases, military ports and military airports have appeared. Moreover, in this situation in the South China Sea, the provocation of the Philippines has given China the ability to further expand its actual control over the South China Sea without "frightening" Southeast Asian countries.