Dahe Daily Yu video reporter Sun Kaijie
On May 11, the gold price, which has been gradually falling recently, continued to rise again, and COMEX spot gold closed at $2,366.90 per ounce, a new high since April 22.
The price trend of COMEX spot gold in the past month
On May 10th and 11th, the price of gold jewelry of many well-known brands in China rose sharply, with an increase of more than 8 yuan/gram.
Taking Chow Tai Fook as an example, the price of pure gold jewelry was 710 yuan/gram on May 9 and 723 yuan/gram on May 11.
The official gold price of Chow Tai Fook on May 11
In the past half a month, the downward trend of gold has gradually "extinguished" the enthusiasm of investors, however, with the rapid rise in gold prices, the enthusiasm of the market has increased significantly. Can you still buy gold? How to buy?
Why has the price of gold, which has just fallen, risen again?
Since the beginning of this year, there are two main factors affecting gold prices, namely the degree of expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the development of geopolitical situations such as Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East.
Previously, when gold fell in early May, Zhu Zhigang, vice president and chief analyst of the Guangdong Gold Association, said in an interview with Dahe Daily Yu Video that the gold price at that time had been overbought, and the rise was too high in the short term.
However, the freshly released U.S. employment data has ignited a fire on the newly cooled gold price.
Song Jiangzhen, a senior researcher at the Southern Gold Research Institute, told reporters that recently, the previous non-farm payrolls data in the United States showed that the U.S. unemployment rate had rebounded slightly, and the number of jobs rising was less than expected, only 175,000.
U.S. initial jobless claims in 2024
However, on 9 May, the number of initial jobless claims in the US also increased, and the combination of poor data led the market to confirm the negative impact of the high interest rate market on the US economy, and the US dollar reversed and retreated, pushing gold prices higher.
However, the global geopolitical conflict is shrinking and not spreading, so the demand for gold in Europe will weaken accordingly, which will be bearish for gold prices; However, in the long run, it is still unknown how the influence game between Russia and the United States in Europe and the Middle East will change, and it is more conducive to the trend of gold prices in disguise.
On May 7, according to data released on the official website of the central bank, as of the end of April 2024, the mainland central bank increased its gold reserves for the 18th consecutive month, reaching 72.8 million ounces. Central banks around the world continue to increase their holdings of gold, which will also be positive for gold prices in the long run.
Song Jiangzhen said that at present, according to the probability shown by the federal funds rate futures, the Fed may only have 1-2 rate cuts this year, with each rate cut of 25 basis points.
The data may be different from market expectations, and once confirmed, it will put pressure on gold prices.
Experts' gold investment advice: buy high and sell low, buy small down and buy big down
The price of gold has risen so sharply, will investors still have time to buy it?
In the past two months, despite the obvious rise in gold, many experts have said that in the long run, gold is an upward cycle, and if investors want to gain short-term benefits, it is not recommended to choose gold for investment.
Song Jiangzhen believes that in the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level; In the longer term, gold prices will continue to rise as possible interest rate cuts in the United States become more and more proximated.
He advised investors to "buy small and buy big down" in the process of gold prices fluctuating this year.
Zhu Zhigang believes that gold is an asset allocation option to resist inflation, and for most households, it is more appropriate to keep it at 5%-10% of household assets.
In practice, it is necessary to "buy low and sell high", and if the short-term rise is obvious, you can properly cash out a part of the gold to avoid asset losses in the subsequent shocks.
Source: Dahe Daily Yu Video Editor: Yu Xin