In the face of clear evidence provided by China, Lieutenant General Carlos, commander of the Western Philippine Military Region, who was directly named by China, appears to have been instructed by the top brass to take a "vacation", thus temporarily avoiding the public eye.
According to Philippine media reports, China's foreign ministry recently released a transcript of a phone call with Lt. Gen. Alberto Carlos, commander of the Western Philippine Military Region Command, in January.
This move is clearly aimed at proving that China and the Philippines have a clear "verbal agreement" on the Ren'ai Jiao issue, and the Philippines has indeed made relevant commitments.
However, the current tensions at Second Thomas Shoal are the result of the Philippines' perfidy.
The transcript details communications between Chinese officials and Vice Admiral Carlos regarding the delivery of supplies to the "illegally beached" Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal.
The two sides agreed on a "new model" to resupply to ease tensions at Second Thomas Shoal.
Under this model, the Philippines would notify China of its supply and transportation plans two days in advance, and promise to deliver only humanitarian supplies such as water and food.
During the transportation, the two sides will each send a law enforcement vessel and a civilian ship, and maintain close communication.
In addition, the Chinese side further confirmed whether this "new model" has been approved by the entire chain of command, including Philippine Secretary of Defense Teodoro and Chief of General Staff Brawner.
Lieutenant General Carlos made it clear that they had all agreed to the proposal.
Regrettably, however, despite the fact that the two sides carried out a resupply operation in early February in accordance with this "new model", the Philippine side refused to continue to fulfill the agreement without giving reasons and resumed its provocative behavior.
It is worth noting that the dispute between China and the Philippines is not limited to maritime confrontation, but also extends to the battlefield of international public opinion.
The Philippine government is currently refusing to recognize the Sino-Philippine agreement on Second Thomas Shoal, in part because it believes that the two sides have not signed a formal agreement, so China cannot provide conclusive evidence that the Philippines breached in the first place.
This has allowed the Philippines to continue to project its image as a "weakling" internationally, and to hype up the South China Sea issue domestically, exacerbating the atmosphere of confrontation.
Therefore, when China suddenly released the evidence, the Philippine side was a little caught off guard.
The Philippine diplomatic department is now trying to question the authenticity of the recording, stressing that the evidence released by China may be "fake" and claiming that China's actions are aimed at creating discord and chaos between the Filipino people and the government.
They asked the public not to believe China's rhetoric.
At the same time, Lieutenant General Carlos, who was a key figure in the recording, has temporarily left the public eye.
The Philippine military explained that the lieutenant general, who had personally participated in the maritime standoff at Ren'ai Jiao and was injured by the Chinese coast guard's water cannons, had gone on "vacation" because he needed to deal with personal matters, and stressed that his leave had nothing to do with the evidence released by China.
In addition, on the same day that the Chinese Foreign Ministry released the content of the recording, the Philippine military urgently appointed Major General Alfonso Torres as acting commander of the Western Command, in an attempt to prove to the outside world that Carlos' "vacation" was real.
However, these moves by the Philippine side have instead sparked speculation that Carlos was not really on leave, but was "on leave" to avoid media inquiries.
Whether he will eventually reappear in the public eye to continue his military career, and when he will return, will depend on subsequent developments.
The Philippine government's series of remedial measures and firm denial attitude actually reflect the embarrassing situation of the Marcos Jr. government.
The Philippine government's provocative actions in the South China Sea have not been supported by all the population.
Some people and politicians have been vocal in their opposition to the current South China Sea policy.
In order to maintain public support for the South China Sea operation, the government and the military and police must constantly stir up trouble and conduct domestic propaganda.
If the lies are exposed, the government's approval ratings will inevitably decline, and it may even affect next year's midterm elections.
In addition, the Philippines' provocative behavior in the South China Sea has caused dissatisfaction among ASEAN countries such as Malaysia and Singapore.
If it is confirmed that the Philippines is actively provoking the incident, ASEAN countries will have reason to put further pressure on Manila.
On the other hand, the United States will certainly not allow the Philippines to admit its mistake and take the initiative to ease relations with China now.
Therefore, the Philippines can only choose to bite the bullet and engage in this war of public opinion with China.
From our point of view, the current actions of the Philippines will not help to change the situation and will not prevent the international community and the Filipino people from learning the truth about the deterioration of the situation in the South China Sea.
Foreign media have noticed that in the transcript released by the Chinese side, a name has been erased.
Considering that this name appeared before Brawner, the chief of the general staff of the Philippine Army, and combined with the command structure of the Philippine Army, it is likely that the name that was crossed out is Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
China did not directly name the Marcos Jr. government this time, in fact, saving face for the Marcos Jr. government.
Not to mention, China has not only written records in its hands, but also complete recordings.
The fact that the recording is not released now is to give the Philippines a step down. If the Philippines still refuses to admit its mistake, China will take the opportunity to release the recording.
At that time, all the Philippine justifications will pale in comparison, and the people and the international community will see the true face of the Philippines.
This will clear the way for China to take stronger countermeasures in the future.