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The Spring and Autumn of History
Edited by the Spring and Autumn of History
——Preface——
In 2023, India's GDP reached $3.73 trillion, making it one of the top five countries in the world.
With such an honor, India suddenly felt that it had surpassed China and finally turned over and became the master.
However, according to the data, China's GDP was four times that of India, and there is a world of difference between the two.
But even so, India still insists that it is a "superpower", and even bluntly says that it has four advantages that China cannot match.
So, is it true that India says it is, and what are these four advantages?
-- The major challenge of the demographic dividend --
At the beginning of the 21st century, India is in the golden age of demographic dividend.
According to UN projections, India will have a population of nearly 1.45 billion by 2024, most of whom are young people under the age of 30.
This huge young force is undoubtedly a once-in-a-lifetime dividend for India's economic development.
Young people often have innovative thinking, tenacity, and the ability to accept new things.
Therefore, their participation will inject a strong impetus into India's technology and innovation, manufacturing and service sectors.
But opportunities often come with challenges. Despite the size of its young population, it is not easy to make the most of it.
India is currently facing multiple challenges in employment, education, and skills training.
Statistics show that only about 40% of India's working-age population is working or actively seeking work.
This means that nearly 60% of the labor resource is wasted.
The situation is even more dire when it comes to women's employment, with only about 10 per cent of working-age women participating in the labour market.
Such a large employment deficit has undoubtedly put heavy pressure on the Indian government and businesses.
In order to fully unleash the potential of the demographic dividend, it is necessary to provide a large number of jobs for these vigorous young forces.
Otherwise, once a large number of unemployed young people become angry, the social order will be unimaginable.
In addition to employment pressures, India also faces serious challenges in the areas of education and skills training.
Economic development is inseparable from high-quality human capital, and the cultivation of high-quality talents requires a sound education system and professional training mechanism.
At present, there are still a large number of young people in India who do not have access to good educational resources, especially those from poor families and rural areas.
In the existing education system, the disconnect between theory and practice, and the lack of practical skills training also need to be solved urgently.
The demographic dividend is not only about the total population, but also about the quality of the population and the proportion of talents.
If the shortcomings of the country cannot be solved in a timely manner, then the so-called demographic dividend is likely to become a demographic disaster.
But if the Indian elite thinks that the most populous country is their advantage, then there is nothing else to say.
-- Quite confident military strength --
In the 1962 Sino-Indian border conflict, the Indian army suffered a heavy blow.
To this day, the memory of that tragic event has not completely faded in India.
Some Indian elites, however, have a very different view on this.
In their eyes, although the Indian army suffered a great loss that year, it was by no means a complete defeat.
The reason is very simple: the Indian army at that time was not as "domineering and leaky" as it is today, and it had not yet fully demonstrated its true strength.
The source of this self-confidence stems from the fact that the Indian army has purchased a large number of Western and Russian weapons and equipment in recent years.
In particular, the introduction of some new US-made weapons has undoubtedly pushed India's military strength to a new height.
In response, Indian elites vied with each other to speak out that India finally had the strength to compete with China.
However, this fanatical self-confidence is not based on a solid foundation, but more on a partial understanding of the nature of military power.
In fact, the introduction of advanced equipment alone is far from enough.
The Indian army's various deficiencies in actual combat capability are the biggest hidden dangers for them at present.
First, as a soldier's most important weapon, the ability to coordinate operations has always been a hard flaw for the Indian army.
Since the Indian army is equipped with weapons from all over the world, the parameters are often far from the same.
The integration and use of these equipment in actual combat will undoubtedly cause great trouble to commanders.
For example, there are noticeable differences in the performance of fighter jets produced by Russia and the United States.
If two types of fighters are deployed at the same time, pilots will undoubtedly face great challenges if they want to work together, and the efficiency will naturally be greatly reduced.
Secondly, the issue of the repair and maintenance of weapons and equipment is also a heavy burden that the Indian army is currently facing.
The technical standards used in weapons vary from country to country, and in most cases if they fail, they need to be sent back to their country of origin for repair.
This will undoubtedly bring extremely high time and economic costs, so that maintenance expenses will account for an increasing proportion of India's military spending.
From this point of view, the Indian side has indeed "picked up the sesame seeds and lost the watermelon".
In addition to the above-mentioned hardware problems, the Indian elite's neglect of political factors is also doomed to an imbalance in their judgment of China's military strength.
The Indian elite is also said to have been conceited that they have two major advantages in the political arena.
One is that India is a democracy, and the other is that India has a parliamentary system.
However, in fact, the manifestation of military power is not limited to this.
In the context of modern equipment and advanced technology, the political system is not the decisive factor.
In contrast, China, an "authoritative state", has undoubtedly demonstrated extraordinary sustained development in the military field.
Independent innovation is the key to the long-term leadership of the Chinese armed forces in terms of weapons and equipment.
It is precisely because of this solid foundation that the Chinese armed forces have been able to bring the level of coordination and integration of weapons and equipment into full play while pursuing the advanced nature.
From this perspective, it is clear that there is a major deviation in the perception of China's military power among Indian elites.
While they are arrogant, the striking power of the Chinese army has long been quietly growing.
Therefore, if they want to compete with it, I am afraid that the Indian elite will need to think twice.
——Comprehensive exchanges, interests first——
In recent years, India has been in the limelight in international diplomacy.
It has continuously strengthened its relations with Western countries, especially the United States, the European Union, as well as countries such as Australia and Japan.
For the United States, India is an important pawn in containing China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
For Western countries such as Europe, India's huge market potential and democratic system make them particularly attractive to the South Asian power.
At the same time, India actively participates in various multilateral institutions and international conferences, such as the ASEAN Dialogue Partnership, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the G20 Summit, etc.
Through these platforms, India has established mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation with the rest of the world.
In fact, looking at the history of India, it is not difficult to find that its relations with the Soviet Union, the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries have been relatively harmonious since ancient times.
This country, which has been colonized for centuries, seems to have learned the truth of "cautiousness" very early.
It is precisely this "smiling tiger" diplomatic style that has earned India a unique position in the international community.
It usually plays the role of a neutral, seeking balance in various disputes, and using a smile as a weapon to resolve conflicts.
This vacillating foreign policy is indeed India's greatest asset.
This kind of vacillating foreign policy, compared with the mainland's mutual benefit and win-win situation, seems to have no responsibility as a major country.
——Unique, insufficient——
Most of the first three advantages are artificially created, and Indians believe that their country is geographically well positioned to be far superior to China's.
India, a peninsular country surrounded by mountains, is blessed with unique geographical endowments.
It is bordered by the Himalayan mountain range, which stretches for thousands of miles, acting as an impregnable natural barrier that separates the land from the rest of the Asian continent.
To the south, however, it is completely open to the Indian Ocean and has excellent access to important international shipping routes.
This ingenious combination of inland and marine has laid a solid foundation for India's development of agriculture and foreign trade.
Sixty percent of the country's workforce is engaged in agriculture, making India an important exporter of grain, vegetables, cotton, tea and other agricultural products.
This is due to the fact that India has a unique Gangetic Plain and Indus Plain, two plains with vast land and abundant water resources, which provide the best natural conditions for India's agricultural development.
In terms of foreign trade, India also occupies a unique geographical advantage.
From ancient times to the present, India has been a traditional maritime trading power.
Its west coast has always been bordered by the Indian Ocean shipping route, which is very convenient for sea exports.
In stark contrast, China's vast land and vast resources have its economic center far from the sea, and large quantities of foreign trade goods have to go around the narrow passage of the Strait of Malacca.
In today's modern trade pattern of efficient logistics, China's geographical disadvantage undoubtedly increases transportation costs and affects export efficiency.
However, India's geopolitical advantages have not come without a cost.
Although its access to the Indian Ocean is convenient, it also means that India is geopolitically constrained by the power of other maritime hegemons and lacks complete initiative.
Chinese mainland has a vast hinterland, and even if shipping is blocked, it can still rely on land routes such as the Silk Road to maintain foreign trade.
Historically, the former maritime powers of Portugal, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and other countries have tried to use their naval power to control the Indian Ocean shipping lanes, thereby influencing India's foreign trade.
To this day, the geopolitical landscape of the Indian Ocean region remains uncertain, and it remains to be seen whether India can truly control its own destiny.
——Conclusion——
India's rise does herald a new chapter in Asia's geopolitics, with its potential superpower traits on full display in military, demographic, diplomatic, and geographical conditions.
However, real success is not measured simply by competition with other countries, but by internal reforms and problem solving.
At the same time, it is crucial to establish and maintain harmonious diplomatic relations with India, and through dialogue and cooperation, the two countries can jointly address complex problems in the region and find mutually beneficial solutions.
In this interaction, the relationship between China and India should not be shaped into a zero-sum game, but into a symbiotic and co-prosperous partnership to jointly shape a more balanced, peaceful, and prosperous Asian future.
Such a vision would go beyond simple comparisons and bring real security and prosperity to both countries.
Source: Xinhua News Agency
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