Recently, an institutional data has once again put the domestic VR market on the fire. According to Counterpoint data, VR headset market shipments fell 61% year-on-year in mid-2023, the largest decline in the past five years.
AR, which also belongs to the XR field, has shown a strong state, with Counterpoint data showing that China's AR smart glasses shipments increased by 64% year-on-year.
Putting aside AR, which is in the limelight, VR shipments in 2023 will plummet by 60% year-on-year, showing a sluggish market state. So, can the VR market "fight back" this year and usher in positive growth?
01.VR and AR "Same Origin and Different Lives"
Recently, a piece of data has brought the VR market, which had been silent for a long time, back to people's eyes. For the VR market, this data seems to be reasonable, and the market is still in a downturn.
According to a report released by Counterpoint, China's virtual reality (VR) headset market shipments will swell by 61% year-on-year in 2023, even the largest decline in the past five years.
According to Counterpoint data, China's VR market fell by 56% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, and the year-on-year decline further fell to 65% in the second half of 2023. In the second half of 2023, China's VR headset shipments fell 4% month-on-month.
Regarding the sluggish market, Counterpoint said that Pico VR China shipments fell 19% month-on-month in the second half of 2023 due to the impact of the contraction of parent company ByteDance's investment in the XR field. PSVR 2 sales momentum in China has slowed, and Sony's shipments in the second half of 2023 fell 46% month-on-month.
The data of another institution also shows the "cold winter" of the VR market. Prior to this, IDC data showed that in 2023, China will ship 463,000 VR units, a year-on-year decrease of 57.9%.
However, AR, which is also part of the XR field, is unusually strong. According to Counterpoint data, China's AR smart glasses market is booming in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 64%.
For the rapid growth, Counterpoint said that this is due to the more aggressive new product release strategy of the leading manufacturers; Advances in optical technology, appearance and engineering design of AR glasses; Brand manufacturers are actively expanding offline channels and increasing marketing investment.
It is not difficult to see that AR and VR seem to belong to the XR field, but in 2023, they will show a state of "the same origin and different lives".
02. VR has not yet reached the moment of real popularization
In fact, there are many factors that contribute to the downturn in the VR market. For example, due to the epidemic, the market is optimistic about the prospect of VR office, as well as home isolation and fitness. At that time, some XR products had fitness applications, and there was a rush to buy products. However, in 2023, the epidemic will pass, which will inevitably have a certain impact on VR products.
From a macro point of view, from a macro point of view, the global economy is facing a complex and severe situation, with weak income and consumption. In short, consumers have less "surplus food" at home, and their consumption is lower, which leads to a decrease in the purchase of VR products.
Secondly, the cyclical nature of the VR industry is also one of the reasons. When the industry's expectations are too high, the market side does not get good feedback and is prone to large fluctuations. At the same time, the VR market will inevitably return to rational development after experiencing a hype cycle.
In addition, the VR product itself has not reached a fully mature state, but the technology has reached the ceiling, and the iterative update speed is slow. The product power of mainstream VR equipment still needs to be improved.
At the same time, VR equipment products are just a product, and high-quality content ecology can better determine the stickiness of users. But for now, most of the current manufacturers walk on one leg and pay attention to product parameters, but there is very little content ecology, especially high-quality content that can be strongly sticky to users.
It is worth noting that in addition to the lack of content ecology, in the past, regardless of the development of the Internet, whether it was the PC era or the mobile Internet era, the popularity of computers and mobile phones was deeply bound to work, life, social networking and entertainment, and became one of the rigid needs of the public.
However, today's VR equipment does not do this, and most of the audience is still focused on games, technology enthusiasts, etc., and its essence is still entertainment terminal equipment products. At the same time, the current pan-entertainment crowd has basically not become a VR audience.
Essentially, for now, VR is far from being truly ubiquitous, and consumers are not willing to pay for it. In addition, there have been fewer new VR headsets in the past year.
03. Can the market be activated?
It is worth noting that in the current market, many people are pinning their hopes on Apple's Vision Pro to enter the domestic market this year, which can boost the VR market. But in fact, the degree of motivation may be limited.
First, let's look at how he is doing in the United States. Previously, Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman pointed out in a report that the demand for the Apple Vision Pro demo experience in Apple retail stores in the United States is declining significantly, and people who make appointments usually do not show up. In terms of sales (at least in some places) it has gone from a few units a day to a few units a week.
In response to this situation, Apple has had to strengthen its marketing efforts, and in the United States, Apple's official website Vision Pro has been placed at the top of the No. 1 position to promote the product. "This is the most vocal hype since the device hit the market in early February," Mark Gurman noted.
It can be seen that the current demand for Apple's Vision Pro in the United States is also beginning to show weakness.
However, it is undeniable that the entry of Apple's headset products into the domestic market will also bring a series of positive impacts to the domestic VR industry. In terms of Apple's Vision Pro, as a high-end headset product, its entry into the Chinese market will further promote the popularization and development of VR in China.
On the other hand, Apple's Vision Pro will promote innovation in China's local XR industry. As a technology leader, Apple's products often inspire other companies to develop R&D enthusiasm and drive technological progress throughout the industry.
In addition, the entry of Apple's Vision Pro will also stimulate consumer demand in the Chinese market. With the growing consumer demand for high-quality, high-performance XR equipment, domestic XR companies will usher in more market opportunities. At the same time, it will also promote the development of China's supply chain and provide more business opportunities for related enterprises.