Today (May 10, 2024), the real estate market has set off again!
Before the afternoon, the real estate sector suddenly moved, and in the afternoon, it rushed up strongly, leading the two cities! Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou have successively closed the board, Poly Development, a leading stock with a market value of 100 billion yuan, rose 5.54%, and the popular real estate ETF (159707) in the market soared 5% intraday, and the price closed up 4.54%.
On the news side, yesterday, Hangzhou and Xi'an issued new policies for the property market at the same time, announcing the complete cancellation of housing purchase restrictions. So far, in addition to the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, only Hainan Province and Tianjin are still in a state of partial relaxation of purchase restrictions. Industry insiders judge that May may usher in a wave of relaxation that is rare in the country.
It is particularly worth mentioning that this week, the price of real estate ETF (159707) rose by 6.39%, rising for 3 consecutive weeks, and for the first time since June 19, 2023, it has achieved three consecutive weekly positives! How long can the real estate rally last, and will it be the start of a reversal? Regardless of policy or market heat, real estate is one of the sectors most worthy of tracking and attention at present.
Chart: Real Estate ETF (159707) weekly K-line chart
Image source: Wind
After talking about the main event, let's review the overall market.
Today's market is mainly adjusted, the Shanghai Composite Index closed in the red with a thrilling increase of 0.1% under the strong support of real estate and finance, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.15%. More than 3,800 shares fell during the day, and the turnover of the two cities was 915.76 billion yuan, a slight increase from the previous month.
The A50 core assets were mixed, and the related popular A50 ETF Huabao (159596) successfully closed up, and the on-market trading continued to be hot, with a turnover rate of 13.03%, ranking third among the first batch of 10 ETFs tracking the CSI A50! This week, the price of A50 ETF Huabao (159596) rose by 1.88%, the fourth consecutive week of gains! CICC has previously judged that core assets are expected to become the main line of transactions in stages.
In terms of funds, the recent whereabouts of northbound funds have been repeated, following yesterday's large-scale "sweeping" of 8 billion yuan, and today's large-scale withdrawal of 6.3 billion yuan. On a weekly basis, northbound funds as a whole had a net inflow of 4.842 billion yuan this week.
There is a small reminder that today may be the last intraday real-time "onlooker" northbound capital dynamics in the near future.
Previously, on April 12, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced that they would simultaneously adjust the information disclosure mechanism for Stock Connect transactions. In terms of Northbound trading, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has adjusted the real-time disclosure arrangement for trading information to no longer disclose the real-time buy, sell and total transaction amount of Northbound trading. When the quota balance of SSE Stock Connect is greater than or equal to 30% on the day, "sufficient quota" will be displayed; When it is less than 30%, the quota balance will be announced in real time. In order to allow sufficient time for the market to debug and transition, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has adjusted the real-time disclosure of intraday trading information on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, which is expected to be implemented in one month.
Based on this calculation, the first trading day after May 12, that is, the following Monday (May 13), this change may take effect.
【ETF Omni Hot Spot Inventory】The following focuses on the trading and fundamentals of real estate, banking, and value thematic sectors.
1. ["Rise"! Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou daily limit, real estate ETF (159707) rose 4.54%! Institution: Over-falling rebound or continuation]
The CSI 800 Real Estate Index, which represents the market of leading A-share real estate companies, closed up more than 4%, and 8 of the 16 constituent stocks rose more than 3%. Among them, Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou both rose to the limit, Xincheng Holdings was once closed in the intraday, closing up nearly 8%, Poly Development rose more than 5%, Huafa shares rose more than 4%, Vanke A, Joy City, Financial Street, etc. rose more than 3%.
In terms of popular ETFs, the real estate ETF (159707) of the leading real estate companies continued to break out in the afternoon, with the price on the floor touching 5% higher, and the closing price still rose 4.54%, successfully recovering the 60-day moving average! The turnover rate throughout the day was close to 30%, and the turnover reached 74.39 million yuan, which was significantly higher than yesterday's delivery!
Image source: Wind
On the news side, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province and Xi'an, Shaanxi Province issued notices on May 9 to fully cancel housing purchase restrictions from now on. Recently, Beijing, Chengdu, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other places have also announced further optimization and adjustment of demand-side purchase restrictions, loan restrictions and other policies. As a series of measures continue to take effect, market expectations are gradually improving.
According to the analysis of Founder Securities, after the high-level meeting at the end of April proposed to "digest the stock and optimize the stock", many cities responded quickly and actively responded to the call of the central government. As of May 9, only Hainan Province, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and other 6 places in the country have implemented different degrees of purchase restriction policies, and the housing purchase restriction order has come to an end.
The capital market is "rising" to meet new expectations! Looking back, after the real estate sector hit a new low, it has rebounded significantly recently. For example, the CSI 800 real estate index has rebounded by more than 16% since hitting a new low in 2009 on April 24, significantly outperforming broad-based indices such as CSI 300 and CSI 500, and slightly outperforming similar real estate index 159707 es.
Data source: Wind, the statistical interval is 2024.4.24-2024.5.10. Note: The rise and fall of the CSI 800 Real Estate Index in the past five complete years are: 2023, -33.23%; in 2022, -13.06%; in 2021, -13.86%; in 2020, -15.02%; In 2019, 26.56%.
In addition, the rebound in individual stocks is also worth mentioning. According to the data, the 16 constituent stocks of the CSI 800 Real Estate Index all recorded gains during the period from April 24, 2024 to May 10, 2024. Among them, Xincheng Holdings rose by nearly 34%, and Binjiang Group rose by more than 33%. The two major heavyweights, Poly Development and China Merchants Shekou, both rose by more than 20%, with the latest market capitalization of 116.4 billion yuan and 89 billion yuan respectively.
Data source: Wind, the statistical interval is 2024.4.24-2024.5.10, and the weight data comes from China Securities Index Company, as of 2024.4.30.
How long can this round of real estate market last? The agency expects that in the short term, under the continuous boost of the policy, the over-falling rebound market is expected to continue. The subsequent improvement of property market sales data and the completion of the gradual debt conversion of real estate enterprises, the restoration of fundamentals and performance will drive a more sustainable repair of individual stocks in the sector.
In terms of allocation, Guolian Securities said that from a long-term perspective, the continuous development of policies at both ends of supply and demand is expected to enhance market confidence and stimulate the release of demand. The real estate industry is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, and real estate companies need to flexibly adapt to the market, enhance product competitiveness, and explore new business models and explore new growth points.
Layout of high-quality central state-owned enterprises and high-quality real estate enterprises, related products real estate ETF (159707). According to the data, the real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 real estate index, bringing together 16 leading high-quality real estate companies in the market, and has obvious head concentration advantages in the investment direction, with the top ten constituent equity weights exceeding 8 percent, and the content of central state-owned enterprises is high! The Real Estate ETF (159707) is also the only industry ETF that tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index in the market, which has scarcity and recognition.
2. [Another new high!] Fundamentals have bottomed out + big money favors, and bank stocks are stable? Bank ETF (512800) rose 3 times in a row, refreshing a new high in the past two years! 】
Reach new heights! This week, the A-share top bank ETF (512800) rose for 3 consecutive days, and the on-market price continued to rise by 1.23% today, climbing the peak and refreshing a new high since February 14, 2022!
Image source: Wind
Stocks in the sector exceeded 9 into the red, many shares refreshed new highs in the year, Bank of Ningbo closed up 3.7%, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Hangzhou rose more than 2%, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Ping An Bank, Industrial Bank, etc. followed the rise.
Image source: Wind
Since the beginning of the year, bank stocks have significantly outperformed, and the CSI Bank Index tracked by the bank ETF (512800) has risen by 17.88% during the year, ranking first among all industries (the secondary industry of the CSI All-Index and outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by more than 11 percentage points).
Image source: Wind
Analysts interpret that since the beginning of the year, the market of the banking sector is mainly based on the hedging logic under the pessimistic expectations of the market. Looking ahead, the logic of "both offensive and defensive" in the banking sector will not change. At the fundamental level, the potential bearishness of the industry is expected to be exhausted, and in the long run, the subsequent upward elasticity depends on the repair process of the macro economy and real estate.
Fundamentally, the "wave of interest rate cuts" in the banking industry has not subsided, and it has risen again and again. Recently, a number of banks have announced that they will stop/terminate the relevant smart notice deposit stock business. At the same time, since April, some city commercial banks have taken the lead in opening a new round of deposit interest rate reduction, according to media sources, the medium and long-term deposit interest rate reduction continues to continue the previous strength, many banks 3-year, 5-year time deposit interest rates are flat or even "inverted", and more city commercial banks 2-year and 3-year time deposit interest rates began to appear "inverted".
The first quarterly report shows that the decline in net interest margin is still a drag on the growth of revenue and profit of the banking industry, and banks have taken the initiative to reduce costs, and the downward trend of net interest margin has slowed down. Zhongtai Securities said that the effect of the alleviation of the cost of the liability side on the interest rate spread has gradually appeared, and the subsequent deposit interest rate may still be further reduced. Interest margins are expected to be stable in the second half of the year, with a narrowing of the negative year-on-year contribution to net interest income, and interest income stabilizing in the second half of the year.
In terms of capital, the phenomenon of "asset shortage" continues, and bank stocks, as quasi-fixed income assets with "stable profits, low valuations and high dividends", have prominent investment cost performance, and the trend of increasing the holdings of funds from all walks of life is significant.
In terms of public funds, as of the end of the first quarter, the market value of bank stocks held by partial equity funds accounted for 2.46% of the market value of public funds, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from the beginning of the year, especially the market value of large state-owned banks has increased for four consecutive quarters.
In terms of northbound funds, the net inflow of northbound funds into the banking sector (Wind) in the first quarter was 25.197 billion yuan, ranking first among all industries.
Image source: Wind
As a representative of long-term funds, the social security fund has a significant heavy position in bank stocks in the first quarter, of which the Agricultural Bank of China won the first heavy position of the social security fund with a market value of 23.521 billion shares and a market value of 99.494 billion yuan, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Changshu Bank are also among the top ten heavy stocks.
In the low interest rate environment, the scarcity and relative certainty of high-dividend assets have emerged, and large funds represented by insurance funds are expected to continue to actively allocate to the banking sector with high dividends and low valuations, driving the sector to continue to strengthen.
Investors who are optimistic about the valuation repair market of the banking sector, related products bank ETFs. The bank ETF passively tracks the CSI Bank Index, with 42 listed banks in the A-share market as its constituent stocks, and nearly one-third of its positions are deployed in major state-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China, capturing the opportunity of "high dividend" theme; About 70% of the positions focus on high-growth joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank and Bank of Xi'an, which are efficient investment tools for tracking the market of the banking sector.
3. [Good and frequent! Value ETF (510030) went on the offensive again, closing at a new high in nearly 9 months! How do you see the investment opportunities in the future? 】
High dividends are back! The value ETF (510030), which focuses on "high dividend + low valuation" large-cap blue-chip stocks, rose 1.17% in intraday trading, and as of the close, it rose 1.05% to 0.866 yuan, and the closing price hit a new high in nearly 9 months.
Image Credit: Snowball
In terms of constituent stocks, real estate stocks soared, with Seazen Holdings closing up 7.92%, leading the gains, and Poly Development not to be outdone, closing up 5.54%. Some financial, building materials, and power stocks collectively rose: China Pacific Insurance, China Jushi, and Guodian Electric Power all closed up more than 3%, and some banks and brokerage stocks such as Postal Savings Bank and China Galaxy closed up more than 2%.
Image source: Wind
On the news side, the purchase restrictions on the property market in many cities have been relaxed. On May 9, Hangzhou and Xi'an announced the cancellation of housing purchase restrictions. Up to now, in addition to Hainan Province, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have begun to relax purchase restrictions from some peripheral areas, and Guangzhou (below 120 square meters), Tianjin (new houses under 120 square meters, etc.) and other cities have only limited purchase restrictions in some core areas.
A number of institutions believe that including first-tier cities, the relaxation of purchase restrictions has become the general trend. The chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate believes that the country's will to stabilize the property market is very resolute, and there may be more and more active policies in the future.
At present, with the help of multiple factors, the value style is expected to continue.
[Policy expectations superimposed on the continued stabilization of the economy]
In terms of policy expectations, a high-level meeting was held on April 30, and the meeting decided to convene the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in July this year, focusing on deepening reforms or boosting market risk appetite. In addition, the meeting affirmed the economic performance in the first quarter, and the follow-up policy "insisted on taking advantage of the momentum and avoiding tightening before and loosening", which helped to boost performance expectations.
In terms of economic fundamentals, the domestic manufacturing PMI in April exceeded the Bloomberg consensus expectation, and the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion range, and structurally pointed to the export chain and consumption, the latter also cross-validated with the May Day travel and consumption data.
The constituent stocks of the value ETF (510030) cover leading stocks in sectors closely related to the national economy, such as finance, infrastructure, and resources, which may benefit to a greater extent.
[The valuation of the 180 value index is still at a low level]
Wind data shows that as of yesterday's close, the price-to-book ratio of the value ETF (510030) underlying index 180 value index was 0.81 times, which was at the low level of 21.18% quantile in the past 10 years, and the cost performance of medium and long-term allocation was highlighted.
Image source: Wind
Looking ahead, Guotai Junan said that the reduction of uncertainty from the economy, policy and stock market is expected to promote the improvement of investors' risk acceptance, the repair of expectations and the replenishment of positions.
Value investing, choose "value"! The value ETF (510030) closely tracks the SSE 180 Value Index, which takes the SSE 180 Index as the sample space, and selects 60 stocks with the highest value factor scores as sample stocks, covering 26 "Zhongzitou" stocks! The constituent stocks of the SSE 180 Value Index are all large-cap blue-chip stocks with "low valuation + high dividends", including leading stocks in the financial sector such as Ping An of China, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, as well as leading stocks in the infrastructure and resources sectors.
The pictures and data in this article come from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and Huabao Fund. Risk Warning: Real estate ETF passively tracks CSI 800 Real Estate Index, The index has a base date of 2004.12.31 and a release date of 2012.12.21, a bank ETF passively tracks the CSI Bank Index with a base date of 2004.12.31 and is released on 2013.7.15, an A50 ETF Huabao underlying index is CSI A50 Index with a base date of 2014.12.31 and a release date of 2024.1.2, and a value ETF passively tracks the SSE 180 Value Index with a base date of 2002.6.28 and a release date of 2009.1.9. The changes of CSI A50 Index in the past five complete years are: 2019, 43.71%; in 2020, 33.41%; in 2021, -5.38%; in 2022, -21.19%; In 2023, -12.42%. The composition of the index constituents is adjusted in accordance with the rules of the index, and its backtested historical performance is not indicative of the future performance of the index. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only objectively displayed and enumerated as index constituent stocks, and are not recommended as any individual stocks, and do not represent the fund manager and fund investment direction. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors shall be responsible for any investment behavior determined independently. In addition, any opinions, analysis and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, and the company shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Investors should carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Fund Product Key Facts Statement and other legal documents of the fund, understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, and choose products that are suitable for their own risk tolerance. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. According to the assessment of the fund manager, the risk level of A50 ETF Huabao and its feeder funds, bank ETFs, real estate ETFs and value ETFs are all R3-medium risk, suitable for investors with balanced (C3) and above, and the suitability matching opinion is subject to the sales agency. Investors should pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund managers in a timely manner when the distribution agencies (including fund managers, direct sales agencies and other sales agencies) conduct risk assessments of the above funds in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, and the opinions of each sales agency on the suitability are not necessarily the same, and the risk rating evaluation results of fund products issued by fund distribution agencies shall not be lower than the risk rating evaluation results made by fund managers. The risk-return characteristics of the fund and the risk level of the fund in the fund contract are different due to different factors to be considered. Investors should understand the risk and return of the fund, carefully select fund products based on their own investment objectives, horizon, investment experience and risk tolerance, and bear their own risks. The registration of the above funds by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not indicate that it has made substantive judgments or guarantees on the investment value, market prospects and returns of the funds. Caution should be exercised when investing in funds.
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