Recently, Sheng Laiyun, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office: "There is still a lot of room for real estate development in the mainland, and there are still 180 million or 190 million migrant workers in the country who are not fully citizenized in the city." "Less than one-third of migrant workers in the city buy houses." Therefore, the demand for improvement, including rigid demand, is very large, and it has the supporting conditions for the future real estate market.
In fact, on this topic, it is still relatively sensitive, so let's discuss this and talk about some peripheral things from this point of view, such as the urbanization rate.
01.
Let's first understand the development process of urbanization in the United States
In the past, we often said that it took us more than 20 years to achieve the 100-year urbanization development of the United States, but what is the specific urbanization process of the United States? In fact, the urbanization of the United States is divided into three stages:
The first stage: the early days of urbanization in the United States
Before the Industrial Revolution, most Americans lived in rural areas. Thanks to advances in transportation and better job opportunities, people are leaving the countryside for the cities. It was America's golden age, and all sorts of opportunities abounded.
After 1890, the Industrial Revolution began. With the advancement of transportation, transportation in large cities in the United States has become more accessible. Over the next 20 years, the number of Americans living in urban areas increased to 50 million. In 1920, the total number of Americans living in urban areas exceeded those living in rural areas.
The second stage: the population flocks from the urban area to the suburbs
At the beginning of the 20th century, American citizens flocked to cities. They have a better standard of living and a better salary. After a short period of leisure, the whole world was plunged into a catastrophe, the Second World War.
During this period, a large number of people lost their jobs and began to move to areas that were neither rural nor urban. It is commonly known as the suburbs, where people live at a lower cost and less stressful life. So by the end of the 20th century, the population size of the American suburbs had rapidly increased to 50 percent.
The third stage: a return to urbanization
By the beginning of the 21st century, the United States had suffered another Great Depression, this time a credit crisis. Many people are displaced, they move back to the city, looking for new homes and jobs.
According to the data, the United States is now considered the most urbanized country, with an urbanization rate of 80%, compared to 54% internationally.
02.
The history of urbanization rate in mainland China
In 2008, the mainland's urbanization rate was about 45%, but by 2018, the mainland's urbanization rate had risen to about 59%, that is, in just 10 years, the mainland's urbanization rate increased by 14 percentage points.
Of course, the rapid increase in urbanization rate is accompanied by housing prices in the mainland. In 2008~2018, in the past 10 years, the real estate market in mainland China has experienced two rounds of super surges. They ran from March 2009 to September 2011 and June 2012 to April 2014, and the two increases lasted for 31 and 23 months, respectively.
At present, our urbanization rate is about 66%, while the urbanization rate of some developed countries is generally around 80%, which is just 14 percentage points.
Of course, it is precisely because of these 14 percentage points that some people make a simple analogy that there will still be a large number of rural people moving to cities and towns, and this process will inevitably release more demand for housing purchases, so housing prices will have to rise.
03.
Will there be so many people moving into the city in the next decade?
Let's take a look at the demographic structure of the mainland's rural population moving to urban areas in the past decade. In other words, who were the people who entered the city from 2008 to 2018?
In fact, it can be seen from the high threshold of settlement in some cities that in the past decade, most of the people who have entered the city have been young people.
Taking Shenzhen as an example, the Notice of the Shenzhen Municipal People's Government on Printing and Distributing Several Provisions on Household Registration Relocation in Shenzhen issued in 2016 clearly states that household registration relocation is divided into four categories: talent introduction relocation, tax relocation, policy relocation and residence and social security relocation.
1. Talent introduction and relocation refers to the introduction of talents from the non-registered population outside Shenzhen or in the city according to age, education, technical skill level and other conditions, and handle household registration according to regulations.
2. Tax relocation refers to the legal representative of the enterprise, the natural person shareholder, the investor (partnership) of the partnership, the owner of the sole proprietorship, the owner of the individual industrial and commercial household and the individual who pays a certain amount of tax in Shenzhen and meets the conditions for household registration.
3. Policy-based relocation refers to the handling of household registration in accordance with the relevant regulations of the state, Guangdong Province and Shenzhen Municipality for personnel who meet specific policies, including husband and wife refuge, elderly refuge, minor children relocation, resettlement of demobilized military cadres, relocation of military family members, resettlement of retired and demobilized cadres and retired soldiers, enrollment and personnel of institutions stationed in Shenzhen, etc.
4. Relocation of residence and social security refers to the registration of persons who have participated in Shenzhen social endowment insurance and have owned legal residential real estate (or legal rental housing) in Shenzhen for a certain number of years.
Obviously, in addition to the policy relocation, outrageous elderly refuge, etc., the vast majority of them are aimed at young people, after all, the elderly in rural areas have diplomas, and there are very few who have studied junior high school.
In addition, many elderly migrant workers go to the city to work, and most of the houses they rent are urban village houses, and some middle-aged people even rent houses that are not legally used for residential purposes in order to save costs.
In addition, some cities not only require you to have work experience, but also have to have academic qualifications, and you have to buy a house to be able to settle down.
Therefore, the rest of the rural population is basically the elderly, and these elderly people, if their children have already bought houses in the city, and they are willing to go to the city, in fact, there is no need for stimulation at all. In fact, these elderly people are not uncommon with your urban hukou and school district housing, and you can't stimulate him, and he can't do high-tech jobs.
To put it more bluntly, these tricks to pinch young people are almost ineffective for the elderly. So these elderly people will basically not migrate to cities on a large scale.
Therefore, the urbanization rate in the later period is more of a slow growth, and the rural areas are slowly dying out, and the urbanization rate will naturally follow suit.
But this process should not be as fast as in the past, in fact, about this, from the population increase in recent years can also be reflected:
In 2017, Shenzhen was the first city in terms of population increase, with an increase of 619,900 people;
In 2018, the first city in the country with a population increase was Shenzhen, which increased by 496,700 people;
In 2022, Changsha will increase its population by 181,300 people.
In 2023, the first city in the country will increase its population by Hefei, with an increase of 219,000 people.
The data is clear at a glance, and the increase in the urbanized population has shown a rapid downward trend. So in a word, there is still room in the later stage of urbanization, but the growth rate is definitely not comparable with before.
Therefore, it seems that there are still 500 million people in rural areas, but it is difficult for you to mobilize their demand to buy houses in the cities. For example, migrant workers, they come to the city to earn money, not to buy a house, and it is difficult to afford it with the current housing prices.
For example, in 2023, the average monthly income of migrant workers will be 4,780 yuan, an increase of 3.6% over 2022.
Moreover, let's talk about this income is only an average, there must be some people with lower incomes than this, and there are also some high-income migrant workers who have bought houses, as the deputy director of the Bureau of Statistics once said, nearly 1/3 of migrant workers have already bought houses.
Therefore, this is why we have been emphasizing major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market recently, and scientifically preparing the housing development plan for 2024 and 2025. Just because the demand is not as strong as before, if this situation is still put into the market according to the previous scale of land supply, the inventory pressure will definitely not be bearable.
04.
What to do?
In fact, at the moment, there are two ways to solve the downturn and boost market sales.
First, either reduce housing prices, and second-hand housing, the same as second-hand housing, in exchange for volume, now the sales of second-hand housing in many cities have far exceeded the new housing is the best proof.
Second, it is necessary to increase the income of residents, such as doubling the income of migrant workers, so that everyone feels that it is not difficult to buy a house in the city.
In a word, there is definitely still urbanization, and there is definitely market demand, but the demand for migrant workers who can afford and are willing to buy is decreasing.
Because the income just needed cannot be increased, it is too expensive to afford it, and the replacement group is worried about the future income and dare not start easily. Therefore, where is the bottom of the market, it still needs to be run-in, and when this run-in will be, it depends on everyone's income stability and growth expectations, and their own price reduction.
Wan Ziwen said: Every word of the article was typed out by me, and I clicked "watching" to let me know that you are also "doing your best" for life.
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