Xinhua News Agency Express, Egyptian media reported on the 4th that Hamas and Egypt have made significant progress on the ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
At first glance, the Xinhua News Agency's news report is a bit clueless, and "major progress has been made." What major progress has been made? But if you think about it, it's a bit interesting. Because it was Hamas and Egypt that made significant progress on the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is supposed to be negotiated between Hamas and Israel. Because the two families are too antagonistic to sit at the same table, what should they do? Egypt is one of the intermediaries. Basically, Israel comes up with a plan and gives it to Egypt, and Egypt transmits it to Hamas, and Hamas puts forward a different opinion, and then goes back.
But between the three, the relationship between Hamas and Egypt is relatively special. It is estimated that Israel and Egypt, there is nothing more to talk about, that is, Israel will come up with whatever it is, you pass it on, and Hamas agrees or disagrees.
But Egypt and Hamas have room for peace talks, in other words, Egypt can suggest and even persuade Hamas to make adjustments or even concessions on certain terms. And Egypt's position in the battle for Gaza is also quite special, because Egypt controls the Gaza Strip, the only foreign port that is not controlled by Israel. In other words, if Egypt wants to provide support and assistance to Hamas, it is the most convenient and least constrained by Israel.
It is precisely because of such a special geographical location that Egypt has a greater say in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Judging from the previous negotiations between the several parties, what is the most crucial thing for the ceasefire in Gaza? As far as Israel is concerned, whether you want to attack Rafah or withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip, and how will the administration of the Gaza Strip be realized in the future? At the same time, Israel has a demand for the release of the detainees.
Of course, there is the question of the status of Palestine in the future, which goes even further. In terms of a ceasefire agreement alone, these are the main elements that could be involved. Of course, one of the issues involved in the ceasefire agreement is whether it is a temporary ceasefire or a permanent ceasefire.
In these words, Israel will definitely demand that Hamas release the detainees. As for what Hamas can bargain with this, it is how much and what kinds of people to release. At the same time Israel wants to release the detained Palestinians. It is not difficult to reach agreement on this point, but the difficult question is whether Israel will attack Rafah.
It should be said that the focus of the negotiations is the current ceasefire agreement. The Egyptian media said that Egypt and Hamas had reached an agreement, but what kind of agreement was reached? Presumably, it was an agreement on the release of the detainees. So the ball was kicked at the feet of Israel, and it depended on whether Israel would attack Rafah.
Don't look at this news from Xinhua News Agency and think that the fighting for Gaza is going to stop. It's just a possibility. Moreover, when the Egyptian media exposed the news, it was Hamas and Egypt that reached an agreement, and it was more about putting pressure on Israel. So the next thing to see is how Israel moves. According to Netanyahu's previous statement, the Israeli army will attack Rafah no matter what. I don't know if Netanyahu's words will be swallowed back.
Judging from the past wars in the Middle East, the Arab side has not taken advantage of any ceasefire agreements. The most typical example is the ceasefire agreement reached between Fatah and Israel. The most crucial of these is the complete withdrawal of Fatah from Lebanon. In other words, the forward base that Fatah used for the fight against Israel at that time was completely abandoned. Palestinian-Israeli peace talks followed, and Fatah eventually abandoned the path of armed struggle. But for Hamas, it may not be so easy to get him to completely abandon the path of armed struggle. Unless Israel makes significant concessions.
Therefore, you can pay attention to the follow-up of this news. If Hamas can really force Israel to abandon its attack on Rafah and achieve a lasting ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on the condition of releasing the detainees, then Hamas has the upper hand in this round of competition.
Of course, Israel will not easily let Hamas gain the upper hand, even if internally it is a question of whether Netanyahu's political life is over.
Anyway, it's interesting to see Hamas and Egypt agree, not with the United States and Israel.