The lithium battery industry and the photovoltaic industry are really difficult to brother and brother now.
Photovoltaic is now almost the whole industry chain loss, lithium battery industry is a little better, but it is also difficult.
Today, I will talk about the entire industrial chain of lithium batteries.
1. Lithium mines
Lithium resources mainly come from lithium mines and salt lakes, and we have very few lithium mines in China, mainly in Australia, and there are quite a lot of salt lakes.
Looking at the performance of the supply side of this lithium resource, it is increasing year by year, and the world supplied 990,000 tons of LCE last year, a year-on-year increase of 31%.
This year, it is expected to supply 1.31 million tons of LCE, and it is still increasing by another 33%.
Dig up so much lithium, where can you use it up?
That's why there was this tragic performance.
At the beginning of last year, the price of lithium ore was US$6,000/ton, and by the end of the year, it was only US$1,330/tonne, a drop of 78%.
The price of lithium carbonate fell from 600,000 yuan/ton to less than 100,000 tons.
Until this year, it has been fluctuating around 100,000 / ton, and the actual transaction price is even lower.
Many people may have a question about this, but in fact, from the superficial supply and demand relationship, it seems to be balanced at present.
The demand for lithium resources in 2023 is about 1 million tons of LCE, 56% for new energy vehicles and 15% for energy storage.
So relative to the supply of 990,000 tons of LCE, just the balance between supply and demand, how can the price fall like this?
There are two main reasons, the first is that new energy has only exploded in the past two years, and before that, lithium mines have been digging hard, so there is a large inventory.
The second is that the growth rate of new energy is slowing down, but the expansion of their supply side has not slowed down.
For example, the demand for lithium resources this year is about 1.22 million tons of LCE, but the supply is more than 1.3 million tons.
This is actually conservative data, if the production is at full capacity, with the current production capacity trend, I think more than 1.5 million tons is no problem.
Don't look at the rapid growth rate of new energy in the past two years, the higher the penetration rate in the back, the more difficult it is to grow.
Now the proportion of new energy vehicles in our country is already very high, and abroad, far less active than us, including new energy power generation is the same.
Energy storage is a good thing and a must, because new energy is an unstable energy source, and if the weather is good or windy, there will be more power generation, and if the weather is bad or not windy, there will be no electricity.
The grid doesn't like this kind of power because the grid has limited redundancy space, so energy storage is necessary to transfer it.
However, chemical energy storage is actually very cost-effective, so the scale of energy storage batteries is not large now, and the production capacity has long been very large, that is, half of the built production lines are placed there to eat ashes.
In this context, lithium mining companies are miserable.
First of all, the lithium mining duo Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium took the lead in losing money.
Tianqi Lithium's net profit loss in the first quarter of this year was more than 800 million, a year-on-year decrease of 110%, and because of the joint venture company SQM, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.9 billion.
This is really a house leak that happened to rain overnight.
Ganfeng Lithium is not much better, with a loss of 600 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 128%.
However, his technology is the best and he produces the most complete range of products, so he has taken the lion's share in many categories.
In addition to these two, the other lithium giants have performed a little better due to their more diversified businesses.
For example, the western mining industry mainly does iron, copper, zinc, etc., and also does lithium extraction from salt lakes, and is also increasing the layout of lithium carbonate.
And this year, the price of some metals has risen quite well, such as copper, which I have said separately before, has risen to the sky, so the net profit of Western Mining in the first quarter was 1.2 billion, an increase of 17% year-on-year.
There is also a one-word difference in Tibetan mining, which is mainly engaged in lithium resources, and by the way, there is also a part of chromium, so it is much worse.
Last year, the revenue of lithium products was 550 million, a year-on-year decrease of 71%.
However, there was no loss in the first quarter of this year, and he earned 40 million, although it was not much, it was money.
There is also Salt Lake Co., Ltd., this company's financial report is the most beautiful in all lithium mining industries, it is called a place with pictures and texts, and bright colors and good scenery is different.
Salt Lake shares are Qinghai, and those various lakes in Qinghai are beautiful.
Just take a picture of the homepage of the financial report, and it will kill all listed companies in seconds, you see this is the cover of the 2023 annual report.
Do you know what this is called, the second page of people's annual reports is this beautiful scenery, which looks like a flower, so it is called salt flower.
This company is very interesting and has a lot of potential, and I will take the time to talk about it in detail later.
The main thing is to be happy when you talk about these beautiful scenery.
But the performance of Salt Lake seems to be a little unhappy.
It has been declining since last year, with revenue of 2.7 billion in the first quarter of this year, down 42% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.05 billion, down 57% year-on-year.
The company mainly does potash fertilizer, and the resources are called a good, that is, the management operation was a little bit that in the past few years, a little mistake, but now it is starting to get on the right track, the story is interesting, and I will tell it next time.
There are also some mining giants that also have lithium mines, such as Zijin Mining, which not only has lithium mines, but also salt lakes.
Although the production of lithium carbonate is relatively small compared to the company's other businesses, it is growing rapidly.
Although only 2,900 tons will be produced in 2023, it is expected to be 25,000 tons this year, a tenfold increase, and a fivefold increase to 120,000 tons next year.
This production is actually not small.
Now we know why the upstream lithium mine is so rolled, new and old players have expanded production in large numbers, and the growth rate of power batteries and energy storage batteries is far from keeping up.
2. Lithium battery materials
There are four main core components of a lithium battery, namely the positive electrode, the negative electrode, the separator and the electrolyte.
This structure is currently very hyped, and they are all boasting of "solid-state batteries", that is, there is no separator, and the electrolyte has become solid.
Especially under the propaganda of some manufacturers playing word games, many people think that solid-state batteries seem to be tomorrow.
It can be clearly told that solid-state batteries will not be mass-produced within two years, and they are still only in the laboratory.
The so-called semi-solid-state batteries still need electrolyte and separators.
Later, I will write a separate article about the current state of solid-state batteries, this technology is very promising, and I also believe that the future will definitely replace the current liquid battery, but that will be two years later.
Among these battery materials, the worst is the company's shares, the stock price in June 2022 is still more than 260 yuan, and then it has been declining, and now it is 41.6 yuan, and it is not enough to cut it in half twice.
The company mainly does separators, if the future lithium battery really does not need a separator, and if the company fails to transform successfully, it will be really cool.
The performance has indeed been very poor for more than a year, with a revenue of 12 billion in 2023, which is not much of a decline, but the net profit is 2.65 billion, a decrease of 37%, and the gross profit margin has indeed fallen a lot.
And in the first quarter of this year, it continued to fall, with revenue of 2.3 billion, down 9% year-on-year, net profit of 160 million, down 77% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of less than 8 points, which was only one step away from the loss.
In fact, because of the development of new energy, the separator market is still growing, and in 2023, the mainland will use 19.5 billion square meters of lithium battery separator, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%.
But the competition is not small, South Korea and Japan technology is not bad, in addition to the domestic shares, there are also many companies, such as "Xingyuan material".
Don't say that Xingyuan material is performing well, with revenue of 3 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a revenue of 7 billion in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%.
However, profitability is declining, last year's net profit was 6 billion, down 20.6% year-on-year, and the net profit in the first quarter of this year was 100 million, down 43.5% year-on-year.
Of course, the faucet of electrolyte is a god-given material, which I have analyzed in detail before.
The electrolyte was very difficult before, because there was a core substance called "lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6)", which had a high threshold, so we relied on imports in the early years.
Tianci Materials bought out the patent from Smith in the United States, so it has the strength to produce electrolyte, and soon achieved the leading position in China.
But then the "lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6)" technology was flattened, a large amount of capital poured in, and the price fell sharply in 2017, and the electrolyte has not been fragrant since then.
Looking at this price trend, Tianci Materials was very miserable in those two years, and it lost money in 2019.
But I didn't expect that then new energy vehicles broke out, the demand for power batteries increased greatly, and the performance of Tianci materials rose, and the performance rose for 3 consecutive years.
However, 3 years of chic time seems to be a bit less, no way, lithium battery has been rolled to this point.
In 2023, the company's revenue will be 15.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 31%, and its net profit will be 2.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 66%.
This year is even worse, with revenue of 2.5 billion in the first quarter, down 43% year-on-year, and net profit of 100 million, down 84% year-on-year.
In contrast, Capchem is a little smaller, but the decline is not so severe.
Capchem's revenue in 2023 will be 7.5 billion, down 23% year-on-year, and its net profit will be 1.0 billion, down 45% year-on-year, and its performance is not good.
However, the revenue in the first quarter of this year was 1.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of only 8%, and the net profit was 160 million, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, which was actually more than Tianci Materials.
There is also a very cute name "polyfluorine", the business is relatively scattered, new energy materials are the main business, of which electrolyte materials are the majority.
The scale of polyfluoride is also quite large, but the profitability is really unbearable.
Let's not talk about the decline in performance, anyway, everyone is declining, there is nothing to compare with.
But in 2023, his revenue will be 11.9 billion, and he will only earn a net profit of more than 600 million, and his revenue in the first quarter of this year will be 2.1 billion, and the net profit will only be 60 million, which will reach the 10 million level.
The main thing is that the price of "lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6)" has fallen too much.
Then there are the cathode materials, and there are many companies that do this, and the companies mentioned earlier also do this.
There are also a few representative, such as the global leader "Dangsheng Technology", which has experienced a serious decline in performance in the fierce competition.
The competition is fierce, but Dangsheng Technology's own statement in the annual report clearly says that there is overcapacity of cathode materials.
The company's revenue in 2023 will be 15.1 billion, down 29% year-on-year, and its net profit will be 1.9 billion, down 15% year-on-year, which is not a big decline.
However, in the first quarter of this year, the revenue was 1.5 billion, down 68% year-on-year, and the net profit was 100 million, down 75% year-on-year.
Even the global leader only earned 100 million in a quarter, which is too unprofitable.
Other companies don't need to look at it, and it's almost unprofitable.
Finally, there is an anode material, which everyone's first reaction is probably "Shanshan shares", there is no way that our boss went to their company in person some time ago.
In 2023, Shanshan's anode material output will account for 19%, ranking first in the industry.
Last year, the global output of 1.76 million tons, we accounted for 97.3%, and no one else had anything to do.
Shanshan's sales volume last year was 27.9 tons, an increase of 43% year-on-year, and the sales volume was almost at this level, which is considered to be a large volume, but the price has dropped too much.
In 2023, the revenue will be 19.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the net profit will be less than 1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 71%.
In the first quarter of this year, it was even worse, with revenue of 3.75 billion, down 16% year-on-year, and net profit of 88 million, down 115% year-on-year.
Another industry leader has only earned less than 100 million, which is really difficult!
3. Battery
The number of battery companies is the largest in the entire lithium battery industry chain, and there are many of them that have not been listed.
Among them, of course, CATL and BYD have the best performance, CATL I just talked in detail some time ago, BYD's battery is mainly for its own use, this is not to talk about the enemy.
In addition, there is also the well-known Guoxuan Hi-Tech, the company's power battery installed capacity in 2023 will be nearly 161GWh, a year-on-year increase of 19.35%, and the market share will be 4.10%, which is not less.
His performance is just the opposite of CATL, CATL is increasing profits but not increasing income, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech is increasing revenue but not increasing.
In the first quarter of this year, the revenue was 7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, but the net profit was only 36 million, a year-on-year decrease of 65%.
Larger than Guoxuan Hi-Tech is Xinwangda, whose performance has declined for two consecutive years, and its performance in the first quarter is not bad.
The revenue was 11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and the net profit was 22 million, a year-on-year increase of 106%.
I always feel that this kind of tens of billions of revenues, and such a pitiful profit at the end, seems to have an unreal feeling.
Fourth, summary
After reading these representative companies in the lithium battery industry chain, do you feel the cold wind?
Of course, the poor performance in the first quarter does not mean that the whole year will not be good.
But it is clear that 2024 is a watershed year, and if the price of lithium batteries remains depressed this year, many of these companies may face losses.
The solution is actually very simple, the growth rate of domestic new energy will definitely slow down, after all, the penetration rate is already so high, but there is still a lot of room for growth abroad.
Whether it's PV or automotive, if there are no trade barriers, we companies will be slightly better.
But the fundamental reason is that the industry is expanding too fast, and they all take production capacity as a magic weapon to win, so the end must be that the industry is reshuffled and a number of companies will fall.
Later, I will also analyze the companies mentioned today one by one, and strive to find a little possibility in the melee!
I made the following table of "A-share Core Assets Research Summary", which selects hundreds of high-quality companies and attaches tens of thousands of words of analysis methods.
All companies analyzed will update their data in the table above.
Exploring the study of corporate fundamentals together, the gains are bound to be huge.
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